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Prediction markets for Nai

SWEATSTINY vs NAILS (Permanent)

Jun 19, 11:53 AMDec 31, 9:59 PM

305117

OptionProbability

SWEATSTINY

NAILS

66

34

GPT-4 #1: Conditional on being able to use a REPL, will GPT-4 be able to be prompted to write naively malicious code?

Nov 15, 6:21 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

53.66%chance

321555

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1225

592

Once a model achieves superhuman performance on a competitive programming benchmark, will it be less than 5 years before there are "entry level" AI programmers in industry use?

Apr 8, 6:37 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

91.85%chance

15558

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1169

959

Will Nine Inch Nails ever release another full-length studio album?

Oct 2, 12:04 PMDec 31, 10:38 AM

63.38%chance

7540

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1315

760

Nail & Gear Stock

Apr 5, 1:25 PMApr 6, 2:59 AM

7277

OptionProbability

NO

YES

180

124

Will basedbeffjezos end up crucified and nailed to the cross?

Jul 23, 3:59 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.45%chance

222

OptionVotes

YES

NO

121

82

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