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Prediction markets for Name

Will Jake's replacement at Asterisk Magazine (managing editor) also have a name starting with J?

Oct 22, 9:14 PMDec 31, 10:11 PM

20.63%chance

4029903

OptionVotes

YES

NO

19617

5098

Will a mainstream AI model pass the stick figure arrow name test in 2025?

Apr 12, 12:02 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.51%chance

14828373

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4142

241

Will Taylor Swift change her name if she marries?

Sep 1, 10:03 PMDec 14, 4:59 AM

13.31%chance

615933

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2552

392

Will someone be arrested for a felony offense committed in the name of AI safety in the US before 2026?

Mar 31, 9:48 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

10.47%chance

232028

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2422

120

Will someone commit violence in the name of AI safety by 2030?

Apr 17, 8:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.33%chance

281685

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1208

828

Will Warren Buffet family's yet-to-be-named ~$127B charitable trust donate to any Effective Altruist orgs prior to 2030?

Jul 2, 9:19 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

34.79%chance

141630

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1809

1260

Major US politician assassinated in Trump's name (2028)

Jan 18, 6:19 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

20%chance

18821

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1149

931

Will an artificial intelligence or digital person be named as a party in a criminal trial in the USA by EOY 2048?

Apr 5, 5:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

49.13%chance

12604

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1012

973

Will Trump issue a pardon / commutation for a group of people (not by name) during his term?

Aug 25, 10:04 PMJan 20, 11:59 PM

36.23%chance

6439

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1327

754

At any point before start of 2050, will a country named Chechnya (or similar) be a member of the UN?

May 21, 3:39 PMDec 31, 7:59 PM

39.52%chance

7372

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1237

808

Will NASA's moon time zone be named "Coordinated Lunar Time (LTC)"?

Apr 22, 3:48 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

67.7%chance

17323

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1006

983

Will “Vance” rise at least 150 places in the 2025 American baby name rankings?

Nov 10, 4:38 PMJun 2, 3:59 AM

54.28%chance

7218

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1090

918

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