Nano News

What will be true about asteroid mining by end of 2060?

Jun 8, 8:42 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

162449

OptionProbability

Extraction of at least 100 kg of water from an asteroid

At least 1,000 kg mined (any material)

At least 10 kg mined with mechanical drilling

An asteroid was transported into Earth orbit for mining

At least 100,000 kg mined (any material)

At least 10 kg mined with optical mining (lasers or solar reflectors)

At least 10 kg mined with explosives (including nuclear explosions)

At least 10 kg mined with biomining (breakdown by bacteria)

An asteroid was crashed on the moon for mining

At least 10 kg mined with nano-machines

What will be the first significant occurrence(s) closely related to killing > 50% of humanity, first time after now?

Nov 23, 10:23 AMNov 23, 6:59 PM

221766

OptionProbability

Human war (any type)

Climate crisis

Societal collapse

AI (both misaligned and misused)

Coronal mass ejection

Nuclear war

Global pandemic

Self-replicating machines (macro, micro, nano, or otherwise)

Supervolcano eruption

Impact event

Close supernova

Mass suicides

Kessler syndrome

War with extraterrestrials

Outside object disturbing the solar system gravitationally

Will a complex nanoscale self-replicating assembler be developed before 2040?

Mar 16, 11:26 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

52.64%chance

361361

OptionVotes

YES

1132

819

Will we have a "text to polymer-sequence-that-folds-into-a-nanomachine-with-the-requirements-from-text" AI by 2040?

May 25, 12:30 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

38.95%chance

91300

OptionVotes

YES

3864

3220

What is the best text editor ?

Jul 7, 7:42 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

221134

OptionProbability

emacs

vim

Other

VS Code

the rename button

notepad++

Visual Studio

Mivrosoft Word

NotePad

Microsoft Word

IntelliJ

Word Pad

Notepadqq

nano

atom

Sublime Text

chatGPT

Eclipse

Google Docs

Write on paper and use image to text

When the first human reaches 150 years old what characteristic of their life will be considered their survival’s success

Nov 9, 8:02 AMNov 16, 7:59 AM

18570

OptionProbability

Nano bots

CRISPR

Diet

3D printed body parts

Light speed travel

Cryogenics

Will nanotechnology wipe out humanity by 2100?

Jun 25, 3:24 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

11.16%chance

15536

OptionVotes

YES

1247

941

Nanotechnology enables moving/color-changing tattoos by 2040?

Sep 16, 9:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33%chance

6169

OptionVotes

YES

245

134

Will Nanotechnology Enable the Widespread Use of Diamond and/or Diamondoid Materials in Large Scale Structures by 2050?

Nov 19, 1:09 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

49.92%chance

6126

OptionVotes

YES

176

157

Open "Nano Banana Pro"‑Level Model on a Gaming GPU by 2028?

Nov 23, 4:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

68.3%chance

485

OptionVotes

YES

147

Will Nanotechnology Enable the Creation of Self-Assembling or Morphing Consumer Products Commonplace by 2050?

Nov 19, 1:28 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

43.4%chance

551

OptionVotes

YES

Exit valuation of Nanograb (YC S23)?

Sep 14, 6:36 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

130

OptionProbability

Less than $10M or bankrupt

$10M - $100M

$100M - $1B

$1B+

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Prediction markets for Nano

Prediction markets for Nano

Prediction markets for Nano

What will be true about asteroid mining by end of 2060?

What will be the first significant occurrence(s) closely related to killing > 50% of humanity, first time after now?

Will a complex nanoscale self-replicating assembler be developed before 2040?

Will we have a "text to polymer-sequence-that-folds-into-a-nanomachine-with-the-requirements-from-text" AI by 2040?

What is the best text editor ?

When the first human reaches 150 years old what characteristic of their life will be considered their survival’s success

Will nanotechnology wipe out humanity by 2100?

Nanotechnology enables moving/color-changing tattoos by 2040?

Will Nanotechnology Enable the Widespread Use of Diamond and/or Diamondoid Materials in Large Scale Structures by 2050?

Open "Nano Banana Pro"‑Level Model on a Gaming GPU by 2028?

Will Nanotechnology Enable the Creation of Self-Assembling or Morphing Consumer Products Commonplace by 2050?

Exit valuation of Nanograb (YC S23)?

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