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Prediction markets for NAR

Will Russia militarily seize Narva, Estonia before 2030?

Feb 26, 7:09 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.16%chance

9758107

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1015

931

Will "narcissistic, orgying tech nerds" solve social ills?

Oct 8, 7:27 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

30.67%chance

10429280

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1625

393

Will Narendra Modi win a fourth term as leader of India?

Jun 10, 11:06 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

42.8%chance

559273

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2120

1891

Will Russia militarily seize Narva, Estonia before the end of 2027?

May 5, 5:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.42%chance

232312

OptionVotes

YES

NO

476

22

Will Narendra Modi cease to be Prime Minister of India before 2030?

Nov 7, 6:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

83.63%chance

412037

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1600

812

Will Apple have on-device TTS that is indistinguishable from a human narrator before 2027?

Jan 21, 2:36 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

59.28%chance

361830

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1090

763

Will Narendra Modi be Prime Minister of India after 2029 election?

Dec 17, 4:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.53%chance

261765

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1499

450

Audible sells books narrated by AI voice replacements of celebrities or characters before 2029

Jun 11, 2:15 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

85.85%chance

351328

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1350

898

Will "Emergent Misalignment: Narrow finetuning can ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jun 13, 10:19 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

24.19%chance

5228

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1099

561

Who will lead India after Narendra Modi leaves power?

May 3, 3:20 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

7136

OptionProbability

Rahul Gandhi

Other

Amit Shah

Mamata Banerjee

40

40

10

10

Will "Narrow Misalignment is Hard, Emergent Misalig..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 16, 1:41 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

118

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Would you rather vote for trump or The Loc-Nar

Apr 6, 5:20 PM

00

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