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Prediction markets for NAR

Will Russia militarily seize Narva, Estonia before 2030?

Feb 26, 7:09 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

9%chance

9554530

OptionVotes

NO

YES

950

807

Will "narcissistic, orgying tech nerds" solve social ills?

Oct 8, 7:27 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.55%chance

10129027

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1394

520

Will Narendra Modi win a fourth term as leader of India?

Jun 10, 11:06 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

42.23%chance

539243

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2147

1871

Will Narendra Modi cease to be Prime Minister of India before 2030?

Nov 7, 6:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

85.28%chance

392009

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1752

784

Will Apple have on-device TTS that is indistinguishable from a human narrator before 2027?

Jan 21, 2:36 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

59.28%chance

361830

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1090

763

Will Narendra Modi be Prime Minister of India after 2029 election?

Dec 17, 4:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

61.21%chance

251715

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1449

480

Audible sells books narrated by AI voice replacements of celebrities or characters before 2029

Jun 11, 2:15 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

85.84%chance

351327

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1349

898

Will Joe Biden and Narendra Modi meet in person in year 2026?

Jan 28, 3:43 AMDec 31, 4:59 AM

2.94%chance

5429

OptionVotes

YES

NO

517

16

Will "Emergent Misalignment: Narrow finetuning can ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jun 13, 10:19 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

24.19%chance

5228

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1099

561

Narendra Modi out as Indian Prime Minister before 2027?

Feb 19, 7:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.33%chance

231

OptionVotes

YES

NO

131

98

Will "Narrow Misalignment is Hard, Emergent Misalig..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 16, 1:41 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

118

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Would you rather vote for trump or The Loc-Nar

Apr 6, 5:20 PM

00

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