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Prediction markets for NAT

Will @NathanpmYoung live to 1000

Mar 8, 5:46 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

17.02%chance

116392522

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1600

1255

How old will Bryan Johnson be when he dies of natural causes?

Jul 18, 9:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

59.9%chance

246171958

OptionProbability

NO

YES

4793

4747

Will the National Guard kill at least 10 protestors by end of 2026?

Apr 28, 7:33 PMJan 1, 8:29 PM

6.59%chance

4442675

OptionVotes

YES

NO

37678

2657

Will there be nationwide price controls or rationing of consumer goods by 2027?

Apr 28, 9:28 PMJan 1, 10:27 PM

12%chance

3930754

OptionVotes

YES

NO

27074

3694

OpenAI will be nationalized or have the Defense Production Act applied to it by mid 2030

Jun 5, 3:33 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

34.5%chance

6422808

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13402

7535

Will much AI research be nationalized by 2027?

Apr 28, 9:31 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

15.74%chance

4122132

OptionVotes

YES

NO

23139

4322

Will messaging apps with end-to-end encryption (like Signal) be banned in a majority of G7 nations by the end of 2030?

Jun 23, 7:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

12.99%chance

5513610

OptionVotes

YES

NO

20519

7234

Will any of the below AI companies be nationalized, according to the definition in the description?

Dec 9, 7:39 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

128484

OptionProbability

Any frontier AI company, "soft nationalization"

Other frontier AI firm, "soft nationalization"

xAI, "soft nationalization"

Anthropic, "soft nationalization"

OpenAI, "soft nationalization"

Any frontier AI company, "hard nationalization"

Other frontier AI firm, "hard nationalization"

Google DeepMind, "soft nationalization"

xAI, "hard nationalization"

Anthropic, "hard nationalization"

OpenAI, "hard nationalization"

Google DeepMind, "hard nationalization"

79

64

56

50

49

47

40

39

30

25

21

19

Barron Trump is not fully natural [Mod Note: OP includes "steroids, gene therapy, IVF, etc."]

Jun 13, 9:36 PMJun 21, 4:59 AM

49.98%chance

218159

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10346

9625

Will Nat Friedman and Daniel Gross still be reporting to Alex Wang in June 2026?

Jun 20, 1:12 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

7.37%chance

113845

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3961

408

Will @Nat write a proper bio?

Apr 3, 9:08 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

60.89%chance

4253

OptionVotes

NO

YES

125

80

Where will the 11th U.S. National Eucharistic Congress in 2029 take place?

Dec 12, 4:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Chicago, IL

New Orleans, LA

St. Louis, MO

Los Angeles, CA

Philadelphia, PA

Boston, MA

San Antonio, TX

Atlanta, GA

Denver, CO

Dallas, TX

Other (Comment below for which city - may add to the list)

Other

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

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