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Prediction markets for NAT

China's rebar failure rate below 20% in 2025 national quality check?

Nov 26, 6:18 AMJul 29, 10:59 PM

96.61%chance

1281858733

OptionVotes

NO

YES

534090

18748

Will @NathanpmYoung live to 1000

Mar 8, 5:46 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

19%chance

115392222

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1630

1118

How old will Bryan Johnson be when he dies of natural causes?

Jul 18, 9:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

59.9%chance

243170837

OptionProbability

NO

YES

4793

4747

Will there be nationwide price controls or rationing of consumer goods by 2027?

Apr 28, 9:28 PMJan 1, 10:27 PM

15%chance

3327344

OptionVotes

YES

NO

23805

4201

OpenAI will be nationalized or have the Defense Production Act applied to it by mid 2030

Jun 5, 3:33 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

32.8%chance

6122391

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13939

7262

Will much AI research be nationalized by 2027?

Apr 28, 9:31 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

16.19%chance

3618702

OptionVotes

YES

NO

22750

4396

Will messaging apps with end-to-end encryption (like Signal) be banned in a majority of G7 nations by the end of 2030?

Jun 23, 7:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

14.13%chance

5412300

OptionVotes

YES

NO

19158

7448

Barron Trump is not fully natural [Mod Note: OP includes "steroids, gene therapy, IVF, etc."]

Jun 13, 9:36 PMJun 21, 4:59 AM

42.29%chance

206464

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12015

8196

Will Nat Friedman and Daniel Gross still be reporting to Alex Wang in June 2026?

Jun 20, 1:12 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

36.99%chance

8525

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1283

975

highest total pr at nats 2026

Apr 18, 4:01 PMMay 1, 10:59 PM

4440

OptionProbability

kevin

rohan

kian

ritwik

suzuko

Other

80

10

3

3

3

3

Which division C team will make nats from NorCal SciOly in 2026?

Mar 13, 2:23 AMApr 30, 11:59 PM

6439

OptionProbability

Mountain View HS

Other

Monta Vista HS

67

51

50

Will @Nat write a proper bio?

Apr 3, 9:08 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

60.89%chance

4253

OptionVotes

NO

YES

125

80

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