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Prediction markets for NAT

Will @NathanpmYoung live to 1000

Mar 8, 5:46 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

14.93%chance

118393088

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1566

1436

How old will Bryan Johnson be when he dies of natural causes?

Jul 18, 9:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

60.92%chance

249175758

OptionProbability

NO

YES

4916

4666

Will the National Guard kill at least 10 protestors by end of 2026?

Apr 28, 7:33 PMJan 1, 8:29 PM

7.83%chance

4947870

OptionVotes

YES

NO

34327

2917

Will much AI research be nationalized by 2027?

Apr 28, 9:31 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

7.3%chance

5140449

OptionVotes

YES

NO

35644

2806

Will there be nationwide price controls or rationing of consumer goods by 2027?

Apr 28, 9:28 PMJan 1, 10:27 PM

9.79%chance

4138781

OptionVotes

YES

NO

30349

3295

OpenAI will be nationalized or have the Defense Production Act applied to it by mid 2030

Jun 5, 3:33 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

31.26%chance

7024069

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14460

7017

Will messaging apps with end-to-end encryption (like Signal) be banned in a majority of G7 nations by the end of 2030?

Jun 23, 7:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

12.99%chance

5513610

OptionVotes

YES

NO

20519

7234

Will any of the below AI companies be nationalized, according to the definition in the description?

Dec 9, 7:39 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

128484

OptionProbability

Any frontier AI company, "soft nationalization"

Other frontier AI firm, "soft nationalization"

xAI, "soft nationalization"

Anthropic, "soft nationalization"

OpenAI, "soft nationalization"

Any frontier AI company, "hard nationalization"

Other frontier AI firm, "hard nationalization"

Google DeepMind, "soft nationalization"

xAI, "hard nationalization"

Anthropic, "hard nationalization"

OpenAI, "hard nationalization"

Google DeepMind, "hard nationalization"

79

64

56

50

49

47

40

39

30

25

21

19

Barron Trump is not fully natural [Mod Note: OP includes "steroids, gene therapy, IVF, etc."]

Jun 13, 9:36 PMJun 21, 4:59 AM

49.98%chance

218159

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10346

9625

If the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact comes into effect before 2029, will the Supreme Court block it?

Nov 5, 7:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.07%chance

121035

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10039

9943

Will @Nat write a proper bio?

Apr 3, 9:08 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

60.89%chance

4253

OptionVotes

NO

YES

125

80

Which country will next change its national electrical frequency after 2025?

Aug 22, 11:27 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Japan

South Korea

Philippines

Other

25

25

25

25

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