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Prediction markets for NAT

China's rebar failure rate below 20% in 2025 national quality check?

Nov 26, 6:18 AMJul 29, 10:59 PM

95.16%chance

101617501

OptionVotes

NO

YES

443823

22561

Will @NathanpmYoung live to 1000

Mar 8, 5:46 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

13.58%chance

112392057

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1580

1542

How old will Bryan Johnson be when he dies of natural causes?

Jul 18, 9:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

59.9%chance

239170459

OptionProbability

NO

YES

4793

4747

Will the National Guard kill at least 10 protestors by end of 2026?

Apr 28, 7:33 PMJan 1, 8:29 PM

8.17%chance

3635845

OptionVotes

YES

NO

33538

2986

Will there be nationwide price controls or rationing of consumer goods by 2027?

Apr 28, 9:28 PMJan 1, 10:27 PM

15.01%chance

3025283

OptionVotes

YES

NO

23796

4202

OpenAI will be nationalized or have the Defense Production Act applied to it by mid 2030

Jun 5, 3:33 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

27.06%chance

6120269

OptionVotes

YES

NO

16061

6360

Will much AI research be nationalized by 2027?

Apr 28, 9:31 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

16.04%chance

3518595

OptionVotes

YES

NO

22880

4371

Will messaging apps with end-to-end encryption (like Signal) be banned in a majority of G7 nations by the end of 2030?

Jun 23, 7:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

14.08%chance

5312290

OptionVotes

YES

NO

19219

7438

Barron Trump is not fully natural [Mod Note: OP includes "steroids, gene therapy, IVF, etc."]

Jun 13, 9:36 PMJun 21, 4:59 AM

42.29%chance

206464

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12015

8196

Will Nat Friedman and Daniel Gross still be reporting to Alex Wang in June 2026?

Jun 20, 1:12 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

36.99%chance

8525

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1283

975

highest total pr at nats 2026

Apr 18, 4:01 PMMay 1, 10:59 PM

4340

OptionProbability

rohan

kevin

kian

ritwik

suzuko

Other

47

21

9

7

7

7

Will @Nat write a proper bio?

Apr 3, 9:08 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

60.89%chance

4253

OptionVotes

NO

YES

125

80

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