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Prediction markets for NAT

Will @NathanpmYoung live to 1000

Mar 8, 5:46 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

19%chance

115392222

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1630

1118

How old will Bryan Johnson be when he dies of natural causes?

Jul 18, 9:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

59.9%chance

244171107

OptionProbability

NO

YES

4793

4747

Will the National Guard kill at least 10 protestors by end of 2026?

Apr 28, 7:33 PMJan 1, 8:29 PM

6.29%chance

4341535

OptionVotes

YES

NO

38618

2593

Will there be nationwide price controls or rationing of consumer goods by 2027?

Apr 28, 9:28 PMJan 1, 10:27 PM

13.55%chance

3428895

OptionVotes

YES

NO

25256

3959

OpenAI will be nationalized or have the Defense Production Act applied to it by mid 2030

Jun 5, 3:33 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

33.7%chance

6122680

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13650

7407

Will much AI research be nationalized by 2027?

Apr 28, 9:31 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

18.05%chance

3920302

OptionVotes

YES

NO

21309

4693

Will messaging apps with end-to-end encryption (like Signal) be banned in a majority of G7 nations by the end of 2030?

Jun 23, 7:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

14.08%chance

5412310

OptionVotes

YES

NO

19219

7438

Will any of the below AI companies be nationalized, according to the definition in the description?

Dec 9, 7:39 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

118384

OptionProbability

Any frontier AI company, "soft nationalization"

Other frontier AI firm, "soft nationalization"

xAI, "soft nationalization"

Anthropic, "soft nationalization"

OpenAI, "soft nationalization"

Any frontier AI company, "hard nationalization"

Other frontier AI firm, "hard nationalization"

Google DeepMind, "soft nationalization"

xAI, "hard nationalization"

Anthropic, "hard nationalization"

OpenAI, "hard nationalization"

Google DeepMind, "hard nationalization"

78

64

56

50

49

46

40

39

30

25

21

19

Barron Trump is not fully natural [Mod Note: OP includes "steroids, gene therapy, IVF, etc."]

Jun 13, 9:36 PMJun 21, 4:59 AM

49.98%chance

208133

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10346

9625

Will Nat Friedman and Daniel Gross still be reporting to Alex Wang in June 2026?

Jun 20, 1:12 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

36.99%chance

8525

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1283

975

Will @Nat write a proper bio?

Apr 3, 9:08 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

60.89%chance

4253

OptionVotes

NO

YES

125

80

What will be the national vote share, by party, in the City Mayor and Country Magistrate elections in Taiwan in 2026?

Dec 23, 3:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

DPP

KMT

TPP

Independents

Other

20

20

20

20

20

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