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Prediction markets for National AI Agency

Will a top US AI lab be nationalized by 2030?

Aug 27, 3:07 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

30.05%chance

291018

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1059

813

Which country or union will be the first to open a national agency with the goal of regulating or monitoring AI?

Mar 18, 5:40 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

31961

OptionProbability

European Union

Other

China (mainland)

Canada

The UK

South Korea

USA

69

18

7

2

2

2

1

Significant legal restrictions on AI in the USA by June 2027

Jan 24, 10:25 PMJun 2, 6:59 AM

81.69%chance

25901

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1318

900

Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of an international project?

Feb 3, 10:59 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

15.33%chance

6135

OptionVotes

YES

NO

235

43

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