National Bank News

Chat-style AI models will be a big part of 10% or more of workers's workflows in developed nations by 2027

Feb 2, 3:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.07%chance

1298015

OptionVotes

YES

1846

1470

Prospera wins fight against Honduras

Sep 12, 2:17 PMMay 1, 8:59 PM

55.66%chance

394057

OptionVotes

YES

1067

932

Will a public USA company be nationalized by EOY 2040? (not a bank)

Feb 26, 7:10 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29.89%chance

361151

OptionVotes

YES

2180

1894

Will blockchain technology be used for storing at least 10% of global GDP by 2027?

Nov 15, 1:49 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

30%chance

10916

OptionVotes

YES

1528

655

[Metaculus] Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that India's average fertility rate for 2032 & 2033 will be < 2.0?

Mar 29, 2:56 PMJan 3, 6:00 PM

93.06%chance

11758

OptionVotes

YES

1568

886

Battery fire causes major app outage in 2026?

Nov 26, 2:18 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.07%chance

9526

OptionVotes

YES

247

Will Israel's GDP/capita pass the USA's by 2070?

Jan 16, 2:40 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

37.24%chance

7405

OptionVotes

YES

1298

770

Will a public USA company be nationalized by EOY 2040? (including banks)

Mar 1, 3:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

56.06%chance

7377

OptionVotes

YES

246

215

Any of these 30 LLM-generated disasters happens in Europe through 2027

Sep 11, 4:24 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

63.06%chance

8279

OptionVotes

YES

105

103

Before 2030, will there be an AI-caused administrative disempowerment?

Aug 8, 5:52 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.42%chance

565

OptionVotes

YES

4007

3989

Who will be the next president of the National Bank of Poland, after Glapiński?

Dec 5, 8:46 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

244

OptionProbability

Sławomir Dudek

Andrzej Domański

Leszek Balcerowicz

Other

US federal inmate population will increase for what crimes (by 2026 midterms)?

Jan 2, 1:26 AMNov 24, 1:00 AM

112

OptionProbability

Drug Offenses (63,376)

Immigration (6,725)

Weapons, Explosives, Arson (31,700)

Burglary, Larceny, Property Offenses (7,195)

Extortion, Fraud, Bribery (5,626)

Homicide, Aggravated Assault, and Kidnapping Offenses (4,998)

Robbery (3,717)

Miscellaneous (934)

Other: Banking and Insurance, Counterfeit, Embezzlement, Continuing Criminal Enterprise, Courts or Corrections, National Security (1,084)

Sex Offenses (19,177)

National Bank News

Prediction markets for National Bank

Prediction markets for National Bank

Prediction markets for National Bank

Chat-style AI models will be a big part of 10% or more of workers's workflows in developed nations by 2027

Prospera wins fight against Honduras

Will a public USA company be nationalized by EOY 2040? (not a bank)

Will blockchain technology be used for storing at least 10% of global GDP by 2027?

[Metaculus] Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that India's average fertility rate for 2032 & 2033 will be < 2.0?

Battery fire causes major app outage in 2026?

Will Israel's GDP/capita pass the USA's by 2070?

Will a public USA company be nationalized by EOY 2040? (including banks)

Any of these 30 LLM-generated disasters happens in Europe through 2027

Before 2030, will there be an AI-caused administrative disempowerment?

Who will be the next president of the National Bank of Poland, after Glapiński?

US federal inmate population will increase for what crimes (by 2026 midterms)?

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