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Prediction markets for National Congress

Will Trump 2.0 be the end of Democracy as we know it?

Oct 26, 3:24 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

40.67%chance

554181322

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2676

2061

Will either the courts or congress significantly limit trumps ability to impose or negotiate tariffs by the end of 2025

Apr 7, 10:55 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

41.13%chance

15536568

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1225

866

Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?

Aug 28, 4:50 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

43%chance

8712384

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1151

869

Will the U.S. invoke the TikTok bill against Twitter?

Mar 26, 1:37 AMJan 21, 5:59 AM

2.27%chance

436790

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3099

1038

If Trump wins, will the US AI Safety Institute receive an increase in Congressional appropriations for FY26?

Jun 30, 7:25 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

25.6%chance

141992

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2498

936

Will the draft be reinstated in the United States before 2030?

Dec 13, 2:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

9.24%chance

241225

OptionVotes

YES

NO

995

968

Will the US government undergo significant, large scale decline by 2050?

Jun 24, 8:44 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

84.51%chance

15836

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1123

942

Will the Presidio Trust be Dissolved by End of 2026?

Feb 20, 2:44 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

25.32%chance

4743

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1717

582

Will the US Congress pass a bill nationally protecting abortion during the 119th Congress (2025-27)?

Jul 26, 4:17 PMJan 4, 4:59 AM

2.36%chance

3703

OptionVotes

YES

NO

643

16

Will a political party aligned with the Effective Altruism movement hold 1+ seats in any nation's parliament by 2030?

Jan 13, 12:27 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

21.5%chance

20465

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1174

911

Who will win the 2025 Bihar Elections?

Nov 13, 1:17 PMDec 20, 11:59 PM

3130

OptionProbability

Bharatiya Janata Party

Janata Dal

Indian National Congress

Rashtriya Janata Dal

Other

42

14

14

14

14

Will Xi Jinping choose a successor in 2032?

Nov 2, 3:05 PMNov 1, 3:59 PM

65.89%chance

325

OptionVotes

NO

YES

115

73

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