National Court News

Will Trump 2.0 be the end of Democracy as we know it?

Oct 26, 3:24 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

24.84%chance

783394684

OptionVotes

YES

6715

3343

Will there be troops or federal agents at US voting booths in 2026 or 2028?

Feb 3, 9:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47.05%chance

25072880

OptionVotes

YES

7852

5623

Next airline to default

Nov 20, 7:54 PMDec 20, 7:47 PM

1420196

OptionProbability

Frontier

No default amongst those listed before 2030

JetBlue

Bermudair

Avelo

United

American

Southwest

Alaska

Air Canada

Ryanair

Qantas

Cathay Pacific

KLM

Turkish Airlines

Qatar Airlines

Virgin Atlantic

Iberia

LATAM

Aeromexico

Allegiant Air

Breeze

Sun Country

Lufthansa

Emirates

Singapore Airlines

ANA

Air New Zealand

Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?

Aug 28, 4:50 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

59.06%chance

9213274

OptionVotes

YES

1201

833

Will ICE be deployed at polling stations during the 2026 midterm elections?

Jan 19, 10:53 PMNov 10, 11:59 PM

38.46%chance

748762

OptionVotes

YES

1265

791

Will more US AI models be subject to US export control directives by the end of 2026?

Jun 15, 2:03 PMJan 1, 11:00 AM

35.57%chance

335843

OptionVotes

YES

1346

743

US city, county or state is renamed, min pop 250k, by mid 2028

Jul 26, 7:15 PMAug 1, 6:59 AM

39.13%chance

74647

OptionVotes

YES

12472

8018

Prospera wins fight against Honduras

Sep 12, 2:17 PMMay 1, 8:59 PM

55.66%chance

394057

OptionVotes

YES

1067

932

Will Platner, El-Sayed, and Talarico all win their Senate seats?

Jun 5, 2:37 PMNov 4, 11:59 PM

24.3%chance

162415

OptionVotes

YES

3459

1202

Trump sends uniformed military to polling stations during 2026 midterm elections?

Dec 12, 1:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.27%chance

191582

OptionVotes

YES

1675

597

Will Senegal be officially reinstated as champions of the Africa Cup of Nations?

Mar 23, 6:39 AMJun 23, 5:32 AM

42.52%chance

8544

OptionVotes

YES

1419

350

US federal inmate population will increase for what crimes (by 2026 midterms)?

Jan 2, 1:26 AMNov 24, 1:00 AM

262

OptionProbability

Immigration (6,725)

Drug Offenses (63,376)

Weapons, Explosives, Arson (31,700)

Burglary, Larceny, Property Offenses (7,195)

Extortion, Fraud, Bribery (5,626)

Homicide, Aggravated Assault, and Kidnapping Offenses (4,998)

Robbery (3,717)

Miscellaneous (934)

Other: Banking and Insurance, Counterfeit, Embezzlement, Continuing Criminal Enterprise, Courts or Corrections, National Security (1,084)

Sex Offenses (19,177)

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Prediction markets for National Court

Prediction markets for National Court

Prediction markets for National Court

Will Trump 2.0 be the end of Democracy as we know it?

Will there be troops or federal agents at US voting booths in 2026 or 2028?

Next airline to default

Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?

Will ICE be deployed at polling stations during the 2026 midterm elections?

Will more US AI models be subject to US export control directives by the end of 2026?

US city, county or state is renamed, min pop 250k, by mid 2028

Prospera wins fight against Honduras

Will Platner, El-Sayed, and Talarico all win their Senate seats?

Trump sends uniformed military to polling stations during 2026 midterm elections?

Will Senegal be officially reinstated as champions of the Africa Cup of Nations?

US federal inmate population will increase for what crimes (by 2026 midterms)?

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