National Court News

Will Trump 2.0 be the end of Democracy as we know it?

Oct 26, 3:24 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

26.67%chance

774387144

OptionVotes

YES

6340

3474

Will there be troops or federal agents at US voting booths in 2026 or 2028?

Feb 3, 9:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.54%chance

9739221

OptionVotes

YES

2045

1669

Next airline to default

Nov 20, 7:54 PMDec 20, 7:47 PM

1117551

OptionProbability

No default amongst those listed before 2030

Bermudair

JetBlue

Avelo

Frontier

Allegiant Air

United

American

Southwest

Alaska

Lufthansa

Emirates

Singapore Airlines

Air Canada

Ryanair

Qantas

Cathay Pacific

KLM

Turkish Airlines

Qatar Airlines

ANA

Virgin Atlantic

Iberia

LATAM

Aeromexico

Air New Zealand

Breeze

Sun Country

Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?

Aug 28, 4:50 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

57.01%chance

9113224

OptionVotes

YES

1152

868

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2026?

Dec 14, 5:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.92%chance

599565

OptionVotes

YES

1397

717

Will ICE be deployed at polling stations during the 2026 midterm elections?

Jan 19, 10:53 PMNov 10, 11:59 PM

49.39%chance

708190

OptionVotes

YES

1012

988

US city, county or state is renamed, min pop 250k, by mid 2028

Jul 26, 7:15 PMAug 1, 6:59 AM

39.13%chance

74647

OptionVotes

YES

12472

8018

Prospera wins fight against Honduras

Sep 12, 2:17 PMMay 1, 8:59 PM

55.66%chance

394057

OptionVotes

YES

1067

932

Trump sends uniformed military to polling stations during 2026 midterm elections?

Dec 12, 1:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.47%chance

181532

OptionVotes

YES

1625

615

New Zealand Labour forms a government in 2026 without requiring support from Te Pāti Māori

Mar 21, 5:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.62%chance

5854

OptionVotes

YES

1750

571

Will Senegal be officially reinstated as champions of the Africa Cup of Nations?

Mar 23, 6:39 AMJun 23, 5:32 AM

66.8%chance

2105

OptionVotes

YES

1105

741

US federal inmate population will increase for what crimes (by 2026 midterms)?

Jan 2, 1:26 AMNov 24, 1:00 AM

112

OptionProbability

Drug Offenses (63,376)

Immigration (6,725)

Weapons, Explosives, Arson (31,700)

Burglary, Larceny, Property Offenses (7,195)

Extortion, Fraud, Bribery (5,626)

Homicide, Aggravated Assault, and Kidnapping Offenses (4,998)

Robbery (3,717)

Miscellaneous (934)

Other: Banking and Insurance, Counterfeit, Embezzlement, Continuing Criminal Enterprise, Courts or Corrections, National Security (1,084)

Sex Offenses (19,177)

National Court News

Prediction markets for National Court

Prediction markets for National Court

Prediction markets for National Court

Will Trump 2.0 be the end of Democracy as we know it?

Will there be troops or federal agents at US voting booths in 2026 or 2028?

Next airline to default

Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2026?

Will ICE be deployed at polling stations during the 2026 midterm elections?

US city, county or state is renamed, min pop 250k, by mid 2028

Prospera wins fight against Honduras

Trump sends uniformed military to polling stations during 2026 midterm elections?

New Zealand Labour forms a government in 2026 without requiring support from Te Pāti Māori

Will Senegal be officially reinstated as champions of the Africa Cup of Nations?

US federal inmate population will increase for what crimes (by 2026 midterms)?

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