National Court News

Will Trump 2.0 be the end of Democracy as we know it?

Oct 26, 3:24 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

8.77%chance

793414172

OptionVotes

YES

14104

2043

Will there be troops or federal agents at US voting booths in 2026 or 2028?

Feb 3, 9:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.87%chance

294110933

OptionVotes

YES

11390

5011

Next airline to default

Nov 20, 7:54 PMDec 20, 7:47 PM

1621915

OptionProbability

JetBlue

No default amongst those listed before 2030

Frontier

Bermudair

Avelo

United

American

Southwest

Alaska

Air Canada

Ryanair

Qantas

Cathay Pacific

KLM

Turkish Airlines

Qatar Airlines

Virgin Atlantic

Iberia

LATAM

Aeromexico

Allegiant Air

Breeze

Sun Country

Lufthansa

Emirates

Singapore Airlines

ANA

Air New Zealand

Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?

Aug 28, 4:50 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

56.6%chance

9413352

OptionVotes

YES

1142

876

US city, county or state is renamed, min pop 250k, by mid 2028

Jul 26, 7:15 PMAug 1, 6:59 AM

22.11%chance

910947

OptionVotes

YES

18772

5327

Prospera wins fight against Honduras

Sep 12, 2:17 PMMay 1, 8:59 PM

57.81%chance

404135

OptionVotes

YES

1117

894

If the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact comes into effect before 2029, will the Supreme Court block it?

Nov 5, 7:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.07%chance

121035

OptionVotes

YES

10039

9943

Will a Democratic president begin demolishing Trump’s White House ballroom before Jan 20, 2031

May 14, 7:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.41%chance

14649

OptionVotes

YES

1478

677

Will Senegal be officially reinstated as champions of the Africa Cup of Nations?

Mar 23, 6:39 AMJun 23, 5:32 AM

45.58%chance

8582

OptionVotes

YES

1376

384

Will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact be in effect for the 2028 presidential election?

Nov 5, 11:19 PMNov 8, 12:00 PM

14.57%chance

2580

OptionVotes

YES

10580

2584

US federal inmate population will increase for what crimes (by 2026 midterms)?

Jan 2, 1:26 AMNov 24, 1:00 AM

5403

OptionProbability

Sex Offenses (19,177)

Immigration (6,725)

Weapons, Explosives, Arson (31,700)

Other: Banking and Insurance, Counterfeit, Embezzlement, Continuing Criminal Enterprise, Courts or Corrections, National Security (1,084)

Burglary, Larceny, Property Offenses (7,195)

Extortion, Fraud, Bribery (5,626)

Homicide, Aggravated Assault, and Kidnapping Offenses (4,998)

Miscellaneous (934)

Drug Offenses (63,376)

Robbery (3,717)

Will any government let AI issue binding incarceration decisions without human final approval by the end of 2030?

Nov 7, 2:41 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

260

OptionProbability

No otherwise. Pilot programs, recommendations only, human-final systems, or systems used solely for research/prediction do not qualify. • Applies to any sovereign national or subnational (state/provincial) court or justice system. Private

Yes if a credible public report (government announcement, court records, reputable news with primary sources, or official legislation/regulation) confirms that an AI system: • Issued a final order, sentence, detention decision, or equival

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Will Trump 2.0 be the end of Democracy as we know it?

Will there be troops or federal agents at US voting booths in 2026 or 2028?

Next airline to default

Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?

US city, county or state is renamed, min pop 250k, by mid 2028

Prospera wins fight against Honduras

If the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact comes into effect before 2029, will the Supreme Court block it?

Will a Democratic president begin demolishing Trump’s White House ballroom before Jan 20, 2031

Will Senegal be officially reinstated as champions of the Africa Cup of Nations?

Will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact be in effect for the 2028 presidential election?

US federal inmate population will increase for what crimes (by 2026 midterms)?

Will any government let AI issue binding incarceration decisions without human final approval by the end of 2030?

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