National General News

Which people on the Kash Patel list of "Members of the Executive Branch Deep State" from his book will be investigated?

Dec 14, 5:15 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

122726

OptionProbability

John Bolton – Former National Security Advisor under President Trump

John Brennan – Former Director of the CIA under President Obama, currently a Senior National Security and Intelligence Analyst at NBC and MSNBC

James Comey – Former FBI Director

James Clapper – Former Director of National Intelligence under President Obama, currently a National Security Analyst at CNN

John Carlin – Acting Deputy Attorney General, former head of National Security Division at DoJ during the Russia Gate investigation by FBI

Hillary Clinton – Former Democrat Party Nominee for President and Former Secretary of State under President Obama

Merrick Garland – Attorney General under President Biden

Kamala Harris – Vice President of the United States

Loretta Lynch – Former Attorney General under President Obama

Susan Rice – Former National Security Advisor under President Obama, currently Director of the Domestic Policy Council under President Biden

Alexander Vindman – Former Director for European Affairs on the NSC under President Trump

Andrew McCabe – Former Deputy Director of the FBI under President Trump

Fiona Hill – Former NSC staffer who worked with Vindman and Ciaramella

John Podesta – Former Counselor to President Obama

Lisa Page – Former Legal Counsel for Deputy Director of the FBI Andrew McCabe and currently a National Security and Legal Analyst at NBC and MSNBC

Eric Holder – Former Attorney General under President Obama and current Senior Counsel at Covington law firm

Robert Mueller – Former Director of the FBI and Special Counsel

Stephen Boyd – Former head of Legislative Affairs at DoJ under Deputy Attorney General Rosenstein

Sally Yates – Former Deputy Attorney General under President Obama and briefly the Acting Attorney General under President Trump

Evelyn Farkas – Former DoD official under President Obama

Lloyd Austin – Secretary of Defense under President Biden

Mark Milley – Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff

Jake Sullivan – National Security Advisor under President Biden

Christopher Wray – Director of the FBI under President Trump and President Biden, former partner at King & Spalding

James Baker – Former General Counsel for the FBI, currently a member of the Brookings Institute, former Deputy General Counsel at Twitter

Eric Ciaramella – Former NSC staffer within the Obama and Trump administrations

Mark Esper – Former Secretary of Defense under President Trump

Lisa Monaco – Deputy Attorney General of the United States

Pat Philbin – Former Deputy White House Counsel under President Trump

Peter Strzok – Former Deputy Assistant Director of the FBI's Counterintelligence Division

Michael Sussmann – Former legal representative for the Democratic National Committee and former partner at Perkins Coie law firm

Robert Hur – Special Counsel to investigate Biden and former PADAG under Rosenstein

Andrew Weissman – Former Deputy under Special Counsel Mueller

Michael Atkinson – Former Intelligence Community Inspector General

Pat Cipollone – Former White House Counsel under President Trump

Timothy Thibault – Former Assistant Special Agent at the FBI's Washington Field Office

Joe Biden – President of the United States

Cassidy Hutchinson – Aide to Mark Meadows

Brian Auten – Supervisory Intelligence Analyst within the FBI

Elizabeth Dibble – Former Deputy Chief of Mission at the US Embassy in London

Sarah Isgur Flores – Former Head of Communications at DoJ for AG Sessions

Stephanie Grisham – Former Press Secretary for President Trump and Chief of Staff for Melania Trump

Gina Haspel – Former Director of the CIA under President Trump and current advisor at King & Spalding law firm

Curtis Heide – FBI Agent

Nina Jankowicz – Former Executive Director of the Disinformation Governance Board in the Biden administration

Lois Lerner – Former Director of the IRS under President Obama

Charles Kupperman – Former Deputy National Security Advisor under President Trump

Kenneth Mackenzie – Retired US Marine Corps General and former Commander of the United States Central Command

Ryan McCarthy – Former Secretary of the Army under President Trump

Mary McCord – Former Acting Assistant Attorney General for National Security at the DoJ and currently the Executive Director for the Georgetown Law Institute for Constitutional Advocacy and Protection

Denis McDonough – Former Chief of Staff for President Obama and currently Secretary of Veterans Affairs

Sally Moyer – Former Supervisory Attorney at the FBI and currently Legal Counsel at Cloudflare

Bruce Ohr – Former Associate Deputy Attorney General

Samantha Power – Former Ambassador to the United Nations under President Obama, currently Administrator of the United States Agency for International Development

Bill Priestap – Former Assistant Director for the FBI Counterintelligence Division

Rod Rosenstein – Former Deputy Attorney General under President Trump and current partner at King & Spalding law firm

Miles Taylor – Former DHS official under President Trump, aka "Anonymous"

Alyssa Farah – Former Director of Strategic Communications under President Trump

Nellie Ohr – Former CIA Employee and Independent Contractor for Fusion GPS

Bill Barr – Former Attorney General under President Trump

100

Which country will the next Secretary General of the United Nations be from, following Antonio Guterres?

Dec 26, 4:17 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

242662

OptionProbability

Other

Chile

Argentina

Ethiopia

Brazil

Venezuela

Barbados

Germany

France

Mexico

Costa Rica

Italy

Canada

Will there be a United Nations General Assembly discussing the benefits and risks of AGI before June 2026?

Jun 13, 7:28 PMJun 3, 4:41 PM

27.72%chance

151611

OptionVotes

YES

1615

619

Next UK General Election: how will the national vote be split?

Oct 31, 2:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

111548

OptionProbability

Labour

Reform

Conservative

Liberal Democrat

Green

Scottish National Party

Other

Will AI have a significant impact on a national (general) election in an OECD country by 01-01-2028?

Aug 19, 10:41 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

82.26%chance

241255

OptionVotes

YES

1445

838

Will a woman walk on the moon before a woman becomes Secretary General of the United Nations?

Apr 1, 2:29 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

79.79%chance

19740

OptionVotes

YES

1475

826

What percentage of votes will the Partito Democratico win in the upcoming general election in Italy?

Jan 19, 3:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.5%chance

2355

OptionVotes

YES

10231

9936

Will the next secretary general of the United Nations be a woman?

Nov 10, 4:46 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.97%chance

8115

OptionVotes

YES

120

Will the next Secretary-General of the United Nations be a woman?

Apr 4, 3:29 AMJan 2, 3:59 PM

49.9%chance

575

OptionVotes

YES

192

166

Before 2030, will there be an AI-caused administrative disempowerment?

Aug 8, 5:52 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.42%chance

565

OptionVotes

YES

4007

3989

Will the next secretary general of the United Nations be bald?

Nov 10, 4:46 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

37.42%chance

432

OptionVotes

YES

129

Will the next secretary general of the United Nations speak German?

Nov 10, 4:46 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

43.47%chance

521

OptionVotes

YES

114

National General News

Prediction markets for National General

Prediction markets for National General

Prediction markets for National General

Which people on the Kash Patel list of "Members of the Executive Branch Deep State" from his book will be investigated?

Which country will the next Secretary General of the United Nations be from, following Antonio Guterres?

Will there be a United Nations General Assembly discussing the benefits and risks of AGI before June 2026?

Next UK General Election: how will the national vote be split?

Will AI have a significant impact on a national (general) election in an OECD country by 01-01-2028?

Will a woman walk on the moon before a woman becomes Secretary General of the United Nations?

What percentage of votes will the Partito Democratico win in the upcoming general election in Italy?

Will the next secretary general of the United Nations be a woman?

Will the next Secretary-General of the United Nations be a woman?

Before 2030, will there be an AI-caused administrative disempowerment?

Will the next secretary general of the United Nations be bald?

Will the next secretary general of the United Nations speak German?

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