National Geographic News

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky appear on the cover of any of these magazines before 2028?

Jul 13, 11:37 AMJan 2, 12:30 PM

19.62%chance

9718085

OptionVotes

YES

1907

586

Will humans be an endangered species by 2100?

Apr 21, 8:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

6.67%chance

135207

OptionVotes

YES

979

552

Which Russian regions will hold referendums and declare independence from the Russian Federation by 2040?

Oct 17, 10:23 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

93132

OptionProbability

Ingria

Chechnya (Ichkeria)

Zaporozhye (Zaporizhzhia) Oblast

Kaliningrad (Königsberg)

Bashkortostan

Tatarstan

Udmurtia

Chuvashia

Sakha (Yakutia)

Karelia

Dagestan

Buryatia

Will the U.S. government attempt to restrict VPN usage before January 1st, 2030?

Aug 9, 3:42 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

33.75%chance

31920

OptionVotes

YES

1149

883

What will be the nationality of the first European to walk on the Moon?

Dec 11, 1:38 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

17546

OptionProbability

French

German

Italian

British

Other

Russian

Will physical print magazines still exist in 2033

May 10, 3:49 AMMay 10, 1:59 PM

85.16%chance

9235

OptionVotes

YES

302

152

Next pretender or their issue to assume the throne of a European restored monarchy. Only one resolves YES. (add answers)

Aug 9, 2:20 PMFeb 17, 3:11 PM

265

OptionProbability

Other

Grand Duchess Maria Vladimirovna of Russia, or issue

Leka, Prince of Albania (b. 1982), or issue

Simeon Saxe-Coburg-Gotha, or issue (Bulgaria)

Georg Friedrich Prinz von Preussen, or issue (Germany)

Louis Alphonse de Bourbon, or issue (France)

Pavlos, Crown Prince of Greece, or issue

Karl von Habsburg, or issue (Austria)

Duarte Pio, Duke of Braganza, or issue (Portugal)

Margareta of Romania, or issue

Paul Philippe of Romania, or issue

Emanuele Filiberto of Savoy, Prince of Venice, or issue (Italy)

Aimone di Savoia Aosta (born 1967), or issue (Italy)

Will physical print magazines still exist in 2043

May 10, 3:47 AMMay 10, 1:59 PM

43.49%chance

220

OptionVotes

YES

100

National Geographic News

Prediction markets for National Geographic

Prediction markets for National Geographic

Prediction markets for National Geographic

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky appear on the cover of any of these magazines before 2028?

Will humans be an endangered species by 2100?

Which Russian regions will hold referendums and declare independence from the Russian Federation by 2040?

Will the U.S. government attempt to restrict VPN usage before January 1st, 2030?

What will be the nationality of the first European to walk on the Moon?

Will physical print magazines still exist in 2033

Next pretender or their issue to assume the throne of a European restored monarchy. Only one resolves YES. (add answers)

Will physical print magazines still exist in 2043

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