National Geographic News

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky appear on the cover of any of these magazines before 2028?

Jul 13, 11:37 AMJan 2, 12:30 PM

40.95%chance

10518965

OptionVotes

YES

1066

931

Which Russian regions will hold referendums and declare independence from the Russian Federation by 2040?

Oct 17, 10:23 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

125404

OptionProbability

Tuva

Ingria

Chechnya (Ichkeria)

Zaporozhye (Zaporizhzhia) Oblast

Bashkortostan

Tatarstan

Udmurtia

Chuvashia

Sakha (Yakutia)

Karelia

Kaliningrad (Königsberg)

Dagestan

Buryatia

Will humans be an endangered species by 2100?

Apr 21, 8:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

6.13%chance

145257

OptionVotes

YES

976

602

Will a Global South pavilion win the Golden Lion at Venice 2026?

Feb 16, 11:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.41%chance

71886

OptionVotes

YES

2656

376

Will the U.S. government attempt to restrict VPN usage before January 1st, 2030?

Aug 9, 3:42 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

33.75%chance

31920

OptionVotes

YES

1149

883

What will be the nationality of the first European to walk on the Moon?

Dec 11, 1:38 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

17546

OptionProbability

French

German

Italian

British

Other

Russian

Will physical print magazines still exist in 2033

May 10, 3:49 AMMay 10, 1:59 PM

85.16%chance

9235

OptionVotes

YES

302

152

Next pretender or their issue to assume the throne of a European restored monarchy. Only one resolves YES. (add answers)

Aug 9, 2:20 PMFeb 17, 3:11 PM

265

OptionProbability

Other

Grand Duchess Maria Vladimirovna of Russia, or issue

Leka, Prince of Albania (b. 1982), or issue

Simeon Saxe-Coburg-Gotha, or issue (Bulgaria)

Georg Friedrich Prinz von Preussen, or issue (Germany)

Louis Alphonse de Bourbon, or issue (France)

Pavlos, Crown Prince of Greece, or issue

Karl von Habsburg, or issue (Austria)

Duarte Pio, Duke of Braganza, or issue (Portugal)

Margareta of Romania, or issue

Paul Philippe of Romania, or issue

Emanuele Filiberto of Savoy, Prince of Venice, or issue (Italy)

Aimone di Savoia Aosta (born 1967), or issue (Italy)

Will Russia invade Britain before 2030?

Oct 5, 10:32 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.31%chance

357

OptionVotes

YES

126

How many countries will have status "Blocked" on Polymarket's geoblock list at the end of 2026?

Jun 24, 6:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

741

OptionProbability

33-34

35-36

37-38

31-32

39-40

1 - 30

41-195

Will a country change its national flag by EOY 2030?

Mar 5, 3:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.18%chance

331

OptionVotes

YES

131

Will physical print magazines still exist in 2043

May 10, 3:47 AMMay 10, 1:59 PM

43.49%chance

220

OptionVotes

YES

100

National Geographic News

Prediction markets for National Geographic

Prediction markets for National Geographic

Prediction markets for National Geographic

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky appear on the cover of any of these magazines before 2028?

Which Russian regions will hold referendums and declare independence from the Russian Federation by 2040?

Will humans be an endangered species by 2100?

Will a Global South pavilion win the Golden Lion at Venice 2026?

Will the U.S. government attempt to restrict VPN usage before January 1st, 2030?

What will be the nationality of the first European to walk on the Moon?

Will physical print magazines still exist in 2033

Next pretender or their issue to assume the throne of a European restored monarchy. Only one resolves YES. (add answers)

Will Russia invade Britain before 2030?

How many countries will have status "Blocked" on Polymarket's geoblock list at the end of 2026?

Will a country change its national flag by EOY 2030?

Will physical print magazines still exist in 2043

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