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National Guard News

    Prediction markets for National Guard

    Will there be troops or federal agents at US voting booths in 2026 or 2028?

    Feb 3, 9:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    58.98%chance
    25979322

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    9468

    4190

    World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]

    Jun 25, 3:43 PMDec 31, 5:59 PM
    19276386

    OptionProbability

    Iran and Israel both sign (or publicly accept) a written cease-fire or peace agreement, and no lethal exchange of fire between their regular forces occurs for the following 30 consecutive days

    Autonomous lethal drones (no human on the kill-decision loop) are acknowledged by any state to have been used in combat

    A cease-fire or peace deal is violated by Israel

    Min Aung Hlaing ceases to serve as either (a) Chairman of the State Administration Council or (b) Commander-in-Chief of the Myanmar Armed Forces

    Thailand's Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra resigns

    Government official from Mexico attends the 2025 BRICS Summit

    Iran - Israel War ends in 2025 (ceasefire last at least 90 days (September 22, 2025) or peace deal is signed)

    A new non-majority Muslim (according to CIA Factbook) state becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

    ≥ 25 fatalities in Cambodia-Thailand border clashes

    DRC & Rwanda sign USA-brokered peace agreement

    ≥ 1,500 Palestinians killed near Gaza aid hubs

    Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ends in ceasefire in 2025

    Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ends in ceasefire before October 1, 2025

    Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ceasefire is broken

    Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash reignites (fighting resumes)

    Indonesia becomes a member of BRICS

    World leader of 20m+ population country is assassinated

    United States government arrests president Nicolas Maduro of Venezuela

    At any point more than 5,000 USA National Guard Troops domestically deployed

    Saudi Arabia prices oil exports to China in Yuan (CNY)

    India's 2026-2027 Defence Budget exceeds ₹7.5 lakh crore

    A new cease-fire between Iran and United States OR Israel is declared post Feb 28, 2026

    United States troops enter Iran

    Donald Trump and Iran work out a "deal" to cease hostilities (even temporarily)

    Benjamin Netanyahu alive as of April 30, 2026

    Kim Jong Un remains General Secretary of the Workers' Party of Korea (or equivalent title)

    Russia remains a permanent member of UN Security Council

    Donald Trump remains President of USA

    Xi Jinping remains General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party

    Claudia Sheinbaum remains President of Mexico

    Vladimir Putin remains President of Russia

    USA and Iran agree to a new cease fire post April 10, 2026

    Volodymyr Zelenskyy remains President of Ukraine

    Confirmed overflight of US Military aircraft over Cuba

    An armed non-state group captures and holds the capital city of a UN-recognised state for ≥72 hours

    Iran and Israel agree to a Cease Fire

    Ukraine - Russia War halted by Ceasefire

    Hostile military action by United States against Cuba

    Russian-Ukraine War continues through end of 2026 with no Cease-fire or Peace Agreement

    A cyber-attack officially attributed to a foreign state actor causes ≥US $1 billion in insured losses to a single country

    A new ceasefire between Israel and Gaza is announced by Donald Trump

    123

    Iran-Israel War continues through end of 2026 with no Cease-fire or Peace Agreement

    A country declares war on Israel

    A cease-fire or peace deal is violated by Iran

    A drone attacks a head of state (hits or lands within 30 meters)

    Nigeria becomes a member of BRICS

    Algeria becomes a member of BRICS

    A state shoot-down of a spacecraft or satellite in orbit is publicly confirmed

    North Korea conducts a nuclear weapons test

    A 5th-generation fighter jet is confirmed to have been destroyed in air/shot down (not including being damaged from an airfield bombing)

    Azerbaijan becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

    Trump, Putin, & Zelensky meet together in the same room

    The U.S. suffers ≥50 combat fatalities in a single new overseas operation—defined as a country where no U.S. combat deaths occurred in 2024

    At least 5,000 uniformed personnel belonging to a UN-Security-Council-authorized security or peace-keeping mission are physically deployed in Haiti

    Russia sells or scraps it's only aircraft carrier; the Admiral Kuznetsov

    China declares an air- or maritime-exclusion zone covering any part of Taiwan’s territorial sea or airspace

    Russian armed forces intentionally attack uniformed personnel or sovereign assets of any NATO member state, or vice-versa

    Kazakhstan becomes a member of BRICS

    Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in Europe

    USA performs military action (troops/special forces deployed or airstrike/missile strike) in Mexico resulting in confirmed deaths

    An armed clash between India and Pakistan results in ≥100 military fatalities in a 7-day period

    Ukraine - Russia War ends with a peace treaty

    Vladimir Putin is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

    Non-PSUV candidate inaugurated as next President of Venezuela

    Any EU member invokes Article 42 (7) of the Treaty on European Union in response to an armed attack

    Saudi Arabia becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

    Uniformed armed forces in any G20 member state attempt to seize executive power from the constitutional head of government

    Turkey invokes NATO Article 4 consultations

    Any signatory of the CTBT tests a nuclear weapon

    North Korea provides missile(s) to Iran

    1+ deaths attributed to a rogue AI

    Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in United States

    North Korea - South Korea results in any civilian deaths

    Egypt formally declares war on another country

    At least three sovereign states outside NATO, EU, ANZUS, or the Quad sign a formal mutual-defence treaty deposited with the UN Treaty Series

    Successful military coup in Venezuela

    Any NATO country formally declares war on another country

    The IAEA publicly reports that Iran possesses uranium enriched to ≥90 % U-235

    Japan launches a domestically-built intermediate-range ballistic missile (>3 000 km advertised range) test

    A head of state from a G20 country is assassinated

    Mexico becomes a member of BRICS

    An armed clash in the Shaksgam Valley between India & China resulting in ≥10 fatalities in a 7-day period

    Oil prices reach $150 USD a barrel

    Sudanese Civil War ends

    Syria becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

    Bangladesh becomes a member of BRICS

    Iran undergoes a regime change

    Iraq becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

    A vessel larger than 50,000 deadweight tons is damaged or sunk by a naval mine in the Strait of Hormuz

    Lebanon becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

    Iran loses territory

    United Kingdom formally states intention to begin process to reverse "Brexit"

    Libya becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

    A nation officially announces AGI has been achieved

    China formally declares war on another country

    Benjamin Netanyahu remains Prime Minister of Israel

    160 UN Nations simultaneously officially regonize Palestine's statehood.

    Azerbaijani troops enter Iran

    Venezuela becomes a member of BRICS

    A country declares war on United States

    China becomes militarily involved in Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash

    Benjamin Netanyahu is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

    Any hostile military forces are deployed on Israeli soil

    A peace treaty ending the Ethiopia–Tigray conflict is signed and remains unbroken for 90 days

    USA leaves NATO

    Any country leaves NATO

    Israel loses territory

    United Nations Security Council adopts (i.e., passes without veto) a formal resolution that explicitly condemns Israel’s use of lethal force against civilians seeking humanitarian aid in Gaza or demands Israel cease such force

    Iranian troops enter Israel

    India's Prime Minister Modi steps down or announces a successor

    A leader of a country is tried and executed by a UN recognized state.

    Burj Khalifa destroyed via hostile action

    A country announces magnetic-fusion net-positive energy

    United States formally declares war on another country

    The Government of Denmark publicly acknowledges receipt of a formal written offer from Donald J. Trump or his officially empowered representatives to transfer sovereignty over Greenland to the United States

    Palestine is granted full United Nations Membership

    Bashar Al-Assad is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

    World Health Organization (WHO) declares a Chikungunya virus pandemic

    United States Military personnel deaths greater than or equal to 15 in Israel borders during 2026

    The Arctic Council is formally suspended or dissolved by unanimous vote

    Any current G-20 member state ceases to be listed as a United Nations Member State

    Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in Canada

    Argentina becomes a member of BRICS

    United States formally declares war on Iran

    Jordan becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

    Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in United Kingdom

    Saudi Arabia signs a written, mutual-defence pact with China or Russia

    At least one nuclear explosive device is detonated with the intent to harm a state’s armed forces or civilian population

    Iran becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

    Donald Trump is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

    Iran ceases to exist as a sovereign nation

    Qatar becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

    Major News sources consistently identify a conflict as WWIII

    China invades Taiwan

    Ukraine ceases to exist as a sovereign state

    Israel conducts military operation in Cyprus

    Kim Jong Un is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

    Any United States of America state formally states intent to begin process to secede

    Whole of Greenland becomes USA territory

    Ukraine becomes a formal NATO member

    Two states engage in a nuclear exchange (both attempt to deliver a nuclear device within the borders of the other)

    Israel annexes 100% of Gaza

    Armenia undergoes a regime change as the result of a military coup

    Extraterrestrials making contact with earth is widely acknowledged

    Any Canadian territory becomes part of US territory

    Israel annexes any portion of Iran

    Alberta begins process of becoming a USA state

    Any US territory comes under Canadian administration

    Israel ceases to exist as a sovereign nation

    Humans will extinct

    Yahya Sinwar is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

    Izz al-Din al-Haddad remains leader of Hamas

    100

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    0

    0

    OptionProbability

    call someone retarded through text or speech

    Take control of the army National Guard of a state (not just announcement)

    A literal red line on the ground/floor

    complete 50% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer

    Initiates low intensity conflict with Venezuela

    Weaponize Federal Procurement: Launch a DOJ criminal investigation into Fed Chair Powell’s $2.5B renovation probity, while simultaneously accepting $400M in private corporate donations for the White House 'State Ballroom'.

    Not pardon SBF

    repeal or reform the dietary guidelines

    request and successfully redraw 1 or more state districts

    Stays alive

    explicitly conditions FEMA aid to a blue state on unrelated ideological issue

    complete 66% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer

    Causes Tina Peters' early release

    Says 6 7 (or variant)

    pass 500 or more executive orders

    intervenes to stop a federal criminal investigation into a high ranking republican

    put his name on a ship in the navy

    new blockade of a country

    Eliminate the two-person train crew safety regulations (DoT request from Project 2025)

    refuse to accept results of 2026 midterms in at least one state

    have any governmental officials visit Taiwan formally or informally

    sends USA troops to enter Mexico without permission

    forcibly shuts down a windmill farm power plant or revokes permits etc

    declare war and send troops to aggressively enter any new country

    request and successfully redraw 2 or more state districts

    Pardon himself

    Pardons a private citizen for an act in opposition to an anti-trump protest

    complete 75% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer

    request and successfully redraw 3 or more state districts

    sells 100 square miles or more of federal property to private owners or other countries

    File lawsuit against a congressperson

    resume buying oil from Russia

    Pardons an officer for a crime committed on the job enforcing immigration laws

    Dep

    call for twitter / x to ban account of a democrat politician

    have the DOJ "classify educators and public librarians" who discuss "transgender ideology" with minors as "sex offenders." as per project 2025

    Revoke ten or more citizenships

    Trump will pardon those involved before the sentencing - medical fraud schemes

    ten or more protestors killed during term

    Postpone the elections due to emergency

    Remove tax exempt status from one or more universities

    Privatize the FEMA National Flood Insurance Program

    Mandate teaching Arabic numerals in East (American) Samoan schools

    postpones or cancels 2026 senate elections in at least one state

    Raise the retirement age for social security

    Actually privatizes at least part of the USPO

    closes 1 or more national parks (63 as of question creation)

    order the arrest of a governor by name even if it does not happen

    Announce he’s running for a third term

    Lessen child labor regulations to allow "teenage workers" to work "inherently dangerous jobs". (DoL)

    Accept a gift of an airplane to *himself personally* (not a gift to the US government)

    Nominate a family member to high office

    Appoint a crony, such as Bondi, or his personal lawyers, to SCOTUS

    have FBI DOJ or other agency charge a congressperson with treason

    Orders an agency under federal control to arrest a congressperson

    Closes or makes radical ideological changes to The National Museum of African American History and Culture

    get ukraine to agree to give up ALL of the donbas AND crimea to russia

    Call for the end of the Senate

    Weaken regulations on baby formula as per project 2025

    Sunset the Office of Accountability and Whistleblower Protection (Veteran Affairs)

    Gets angry with Putin and renews (also indirect) nuclear threat.

    add a new federal holiday in his honor

    have a journalist arrested

    Order the arrest of a sitting member of congress

    Have USA test a nuclear bomb anywhere

    call someone a pedophile explicitely by name through text or speech

    remove a major non NATO ally from the current list

    Pardon a convicted pedophile

    repeal the Federal Sugar program (USDA) as suggested by project 2025

    End congressional review of arms transfers to foreign countries (DoD)

    host putin at mar a lago

    Pardons someone acting as a private citizen for an act in support of immigration enforcement (not an on duty officer)

    Airstrikes or bombs Mexican territory (drone artillery etc count)

    Salute Putin

    Enforce the Comstock Act at least once

    Raise contribution limits (FEC)

    federalize a city or area currently under control of another state (not DC)

    force a census to happen when it normally wouldnt

    complete 90% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer

    repeal the federal mandate to label genetically engineered food (as per project 2025)

    Eliminate ACA's requirement to cover the morning after pill

    issue circulation coin or bill with his image or pass laws to do that in the near future

    department of defense renamed to Dept of war

    Get rid of Noaa.

    force a former president to testify before Congress

    appoint a family member to lead any federal agency

    Impose time-limits on how long low-income people can receive Medicaid in their lifetime

    Kidnap *another* head of state (after Maduro)

    enact special taxes or tariffs on a subset of states he does not like

    classify "transgender ideology" as "domestic terrorism," as per The Daily Wire

    Military against drug cartells on venezuelas ground

    Deploy US troops into any of 83 Federal subjects of Russian Federation (or announce that)

    Eliminate the Federal Reserve mission of full employment

    Call for the banning of HRT (hormone replacement therapy)

    revoke broadcasting licenses of a media company he does not like

    Deports at least one Olympic athlete during the 2028 Summer Olympics

    Implement a federal age of consent

    Remove all federal funding for SNAP/food stamps

    Gets influence on Gaza strip to make investment deals with real estate or buys land.

    Uses the US military or National Guard to prevent at least one legal voter from casting a ballot during 2028 election

    federally mandate ten commandments or Bible in classrooms

    Four or more protestors (or bystanders) killed by national guard

    All 10 of the 10 largest protests in the USA happen under trump

    Eliminate the DHS Office of Intelligence and Analysis

    repeal Obamacare

    pardon derek chauvin

    admin stops reccomending fluorinated water entirely

    Add a citizenship question to the census

    confiscate 1 million or more from an individual Congress person

    debank a congressperson governor or mayor

    Enact price controls on groceries

    announce that a part of Canada belongs to the USA

    expand the supreme Court and appoint someone new

    Prohibit use of aborted fetal cells in research for new medical applications as per project 2025

    Eliminate the U.S. Trade and Development Agency

    Threatening to attack a US defence pact ally (e.g. NATO, Rio Pact etc.) with nuclear weapons

    actually disinter bodies from another country

    Call for the end of child marriage

    Four or more protestors/bystanders killed by national guard/military in one day

    stops all sanctions on Russia

    Repeal of the Antiquities Act of 1906

    change it so that presidents can serve 3 or more terms again

    orders arrests of any Biden family member

    delete Juneteenth as a federal holiday

    Prosecute someone for flag burning

    His name is on the ballot for the 2028 Republican primaries in any state/territory

    cause Fox, nbc CNN MSNBC or another main news channel to shut down

    Require all schools that receive federal funding to give students the military entrance test.

    Pass a federal "Parents' Bill of Rights" with regard to Education

    Remove all unions in the Dept. of Homeland Security

    Prevent the VA from covering abortion services

    Replace his Vice President

    Call for the default of the United States sovereign debt

    Causes derek chauvin's early release

    all time high unemployment reached

    declare he has officially undone a past presidential pardon

    Eliminate the Office of Children’s Health Protection

    cancel the 2028 election / it doesnt happen for any reason

    Does Nazi / Roman salute with same passion as Elon's gesture

    Calls himself a dictator or unambiguous synonym (without equivocating)

    Attack a NATO ally.

    Eliminate the Office of Enforcement and Compliance Assistance (EPA)

    expand the borders of the usa

    remove tax exempt from only certain religions

    have a supreme court justice impeached and/or removed

    threaten to disinter bodies from another country

    Mandate time-and-a-half compensation on a Sabbath (project 2025 request)

    fauci in jail at least one week

    take control of a part of ukraine

    pardon george santos

    take state ownership in an airline

    Withdraw from NATO

    Call for the death penalty of any former president by name

    Repeal the Global Change Research Act of 1990

    ban trans people from holding federal offices

    changes the logo or name of a previously offensive sport team (pressures until they actually do it)

    Annex any part of Mexico

    ends black history month

    Eliminate the DOE Loan Program

    Delist the grizzly bear AND gray wolf from the Endangered Species Act

    take control of a part of greenland

    ban all new incoming students from china and/or india

    Call for the end of gay marriage

    Fully or partially privatize Social Security

    Call for the end of the House of Reps

    Pardon p diddy

    make statements that are negative about labubu

    Wind down and privatize Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac

    Call for the assassination of the leader of an allied nation

    Call for the abolition of the voting rights act or the 15th amendment

    breaks ground on a trump building in Gaza

    Detonates a nuclear weapon as an act of war

    fully nationalize an airline

    New restrictions on SSRIs (including a ban)

    Pardon ghislaine maxwell

    stop California from hosting the Olympics

    Deports all the athletes of at least one nation during the 2028 Summer Olympics

    Deports at least one athlete during the 2026 FIFA World Cup

    Implement a federal abortion ban

    Eliminate all administrative proceedings within the SEC

    Ban construction of new windmills in the USA for power generation

    confiscate 1 million or more from the Democratic party itself

    Dissolve/shut down/abolish NASA

    change the borders of a state

    breaks ground on a trump building in Russia

    repeal an amendment

    Bans / restricts guns for trans people (or tries to)

    Sides with Putin because he has compromising information against Trump regarding the Epstein files.

    give sell or otherwise transfer a part of Alaska to Russia

    change or add a face on Mount Rushmore

    add a new state

    enter a mutual defense partnership with russia or north korea

    declares a white history month

    After the ballroom he starts building a palace for the future Trump-Monarchy

    Call for the end of interracial marriage

    Abolish the Federal Reserve and move to a "free banking" system

    Deports all the athletes of at least one nation during the 2026 FIFA World Cup

    bans anime

    Wearing a white dress after labor day

    Dept of defense renamed to dept of peace

    bans 6 7

    Kidnap the Pope

    100

    100

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    95

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    Will the National Guard kill at least 10 protestors by end of 2026?

    Apr 28, 7:33 PMJan 1, 8:29 PM
    7.65%chance
    4646185

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    34761

    2880

    OptionProbability

    Is a man

    Is under 30 years old

    Has military background

    Is charged with murder before 2026

    Is alive on 12/31/2025

    Is cited by Trump administration as a reason for deploying more troops to any city by 12/31/2025

    Is white and not hispanic

    Is used as a pretext to restrict immigration

    Was acting alone

    Has ties to extremist groups

    Has ever been diagnosed with a mental health condition

    Has the death penalty sought against him by the prosecution

    Accepts a plea deal instead of going to trial

    Is convicted in relation to these crimes by 1/1/2027

    Has been awarded for services to the United States

    Was motivated by political ideology

    Has been convicted of a felony

    Was intoxicated at the time of the shooting

    Is a U.S. citizen

    Had the firearm used in the crime legally

    Registered as a Democrat or voted in a Democratic primary

    100

    100

    100

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    100

    99

    82

    75

    68

    56

    50

    40

    21

    1

    1

    0

    0

    0

    OptionProbability

    Shooter captured alive before Oct. 1st

    Charlie Kirk receives Presidential Medal of Freedom

    Evan permabanned from Manifold

    Charlie Kirk is the most viewed article on Wikipedia in 2025

    Any left-wing group is legally designated as a "terrorist organization"

    Jimmy Kimmel is reinstated.

    Jimmy Kimmel returns to air on Sinclair stations

    Charlie Kirk dies

    Charlie Kirk remains no longer alive

    Over 1 million combined lifetime student memberships and faith initiatives by Nov 2026

    The Trump Admin fails to issue any federal policies to protect campus speakers before 2027.

    government employee fired for personal statements on kirk is reinstated or wins employment/first amendment lawsuit about firing

    South Park does an episode that alludes to it

    event with left leaning speaker canceled on a different campus by that school's admin and cancellation explicitly references shooting

    Jezebel writer Claire Guinan testifies that she doesn't believe in witchcraft.

    NYT reporter / opinion columnist fired

    Search warrant/subpoena executed against a journalist citing social media posts about the shooting

    South Park episode canceled (not delayed)

    Another political assassination (either side)

    Actblue specifically is labelled a terrorist organization or shut down

    Statue of Charlie Kirk erected in the capitol

    At least 10 people deported because of anti-Charlie Kirk comments

    Robinson's roommate charged with any crime related to the assassination

    Any House Democrat is censured for comments on Kirk.

    event with right leaning speaker canceled on a different campus by that school's admin and cancellation explicitly references shooting

    The FCC revokes a station’s broadcast license over any misinformation about Kirk.

    At least once person is hospitalized or killed in a violent incident started by someone who thinks they are retaliating for Kirk's death

    Trump invokes the Insurrection Act and/or declares martial law.

    Trump initiates a large-scale crackdown on civil liberties in response.

    "Groyper War 3" declared by Nick Fuentes or one of his generals

    Information reward money paid

    high ranking fed (elected, political appointee, or LEO) acting in an official capacity names a suspect later exonerated

    arson attack against gender clinic

    A prominent anti-Trump journalist is arrested.

    At least one furry convention canceled

    Jimmy Fallon fired, or show cancelled.

    TPUSA supports a gun control bill

    BBC does piece on furries that mentions Tyler Robinson

    Any Democratic politician is arrested

    5+ reporters/columnists fired (across any outlets)

    Upcoming issues of Absolute Batman pulled

    Search warrant/subpoena executed against an individual citing social media posts about the shooting

    Federal investigation started into "funders" of "the left"

    Any news organization is shut down

    Any left-wing NGO is shut down

    A member of a prominent left-leaning organization is arrested.

    A furry website is hacked and the users are doxxed

    80s-style moral panic over furries

    Increased stigma towards sexual "deviants" in the US

    Another left-wing group is legally declared a terrorist organization.

    "Jimmy Kimmel Live!" ends, or Jimmy Kimmel is fired/resigns

    Seth Meyers fired, or show cancelled.

    Federal bill named in tribute to Charlie Kirk is signed into law

    At least 100 people are arrested on Antifa charges.

    Federal bill/EO to restrict/prevent transgender gun ownership

    America becomes a one-party GOP state.

    National Guard deployed to anywhere in Utah (explicitly linked to Kirk)

    Kash Patel fired

    South Park canceled

    Kirk or the assassination referenced explicitly in super bowl ad

    Discord or Bluesky removed from the App Store or Play Store

    5 swatting attacks reported on (not before) 9/12

    Trump receives a “rally around the flag” bump in approval ratings (net approval increases by more than 3 points in the following two weeks according to silver bulletin)

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    99

    93

    79

    59

    36

    33

    30

    25

    24

    24

    23

    23

    22

    22

    22

    21

    20

    20

    19

    19

    18

    17

    15

    15

    14

    13

    12

    12

    11

    11

    10

    10

    10

    10

    10

    9

    9

    9

    9

    9

    9

    9

    8

    8

    7

    7

    6

    6

    5

    5

    5

    4

    1

    0

    0

    Will ICE be deployed at polling stations during the 2026 midterm elections?

    Jan 19, 10:53 PMNov 10, 11:59 PM
    24.34%chance
    789595

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1763

    567

    OptionProbability

    The ICE agent is charged by Minnesota authorities

    ICE kills another civilian

    The office of the Minnesota governor deploys the Minnesota National Guard

    The killer will be given medical leave, paid vacation, and required to attend a two-week training program (type shit)

    An ICE agent is killed

    Trump deploys the National Guard to Minnesota

    Trump pardons the ICE agent

    Trump declares a national emergency that could be used to justify postponing or interfering with the next election.

    The ICE agent is fired

    George Floyd-level protests

    Kristi Noem is impeached

    Insurrection Act/Martial Law in Minneapolis

    Nothing

    Nationwide firearm ban for civilians

    53

    52

    39

    35

    32

    28

    22

    14

    12

    10

    10

    6

    4

    4

    OptionProbability

    "designate cartels as Foreign Terrorist Organizations"

    empower the President to impose reciprocal tariffs

    "lower taxes"

    "defend your Second Amendment right to keep and bear arms"

    "increase penalties for assaults on law enforcement"

    "open Civil Rights investigations into any school district that has engaged in race-based discrimination"

    "order the Department of Defense to inflict maximum damage on cartel leadership and operations"

    "end catch-and-release, restore Remain in Mexico, and eliminate asylum fraud"

    "ask Congress to ensure that drug smugglers and traffickers can receive the Death Penalty"

    "reward states and school districts that abolish teacher tenure for grades K-12 and adopt Merit Pay"

    "REVOKE China’s Most Favored Nation trade status"

    "stop all COVID mandates"

    "keep men out of women’s sports"

    "deputize the National Guard and local law enforcement to assist with rapidly removing illegal alien gang members and criminals"

    "more jobs for American workers"

    "deliver a merit-based immigration system that protects American labor and promotes American values"

    "choke off [cartels'] access to the global financial system"

    "get Biden’s radical left ideology out of our military and rehire every patriot who was unjustly fired"

    "cut federal funding for any school or program pushing Critical Race Theory or gender ideology on our children"

    "strengthen qualified immunity and other protections for police officers"

    "uphold your religious liberty, including the Constitutional right to pray in public schools"

    "implement a 4-year national reshoring plan so that the United States no longer needs to rely on China for essential medical and national security goods"

    "put violent offenders and career criminals behind bars"

    "build a state-of-the-art next-generation missile defense shield"

    "surge federal prosecutors and the National Guard into high-crime communities"

    "adopt a Parental Bill of Rights"

    "banning taxpayer funds from being used to categorize lawful speech for purposes of illicit censorship"

    "banning federal agencies from censoring speech"

    "bigger paychecks"

    "a ban on members of Congress trading stocks with insider information"

    "enacting landmark legislation to drastically limit the ability of big social media platforms to restrict free speech"

    "cut the number of school administrators"

    "stopping federal funding for all non-profits and academic programs engaged in censorship"

    declassify the 'Epstein files'

    "pass a bold range of critical election integrity measures that include banning unsecure drop boxes and ballot harvesting"

    "deliver record funding to hire and retrain police officers"

    "veto the sinister effort to weaponize civics education"

    "increase fairness through price transparency"

    "passing a digital bill of rights"

    "get the full cooperation of neighboring governments to dismantle the cartels, or else expose every bribe and kickback that allows these criminal networks to preserve their brutal reign"

    "continue to nominate highly qualified prosecutors, judges, and justices who believe in enforcing the law, not their own political agenda"

    "create a credentialing body to certify teachers who embrace patriotic values"

    "protect Medicare, Social Security, and patients with pre-existing conditions"

    "reduce the soaring price of gasoline, diesel and natural gas"

    "firing any federal bureaucrat who has engaged in censoring the lawful speech of American citizens"

    "ban private money from pouring into local election offices"

    "end surprise medical billing"

    "ban Chinese ownership of all critical infrastructure in the United States"

    "reform our election laws to verify the identity and eligibility of all voters"

    "reduce the cost of prescription drugs and health insurance premiums"

    "impose a total naval embargo on cartels"

    "a permanent ban on taxpayer funding of campaigns"

    "a lifetime ban on lobbying by former members of Congress and cabinet members"

    "implement the direct election of school principals by the parents"

    "a constitutional amendment to impose term limits on members of Congress"

    "keep America out of unnecessary foreign wars"

    100

    88

    82

    74

    71

    71

    66

    63

    63

    63

    63

    58

    57

    56

    50

    50

    47

    45

    45

    44

    44

    42

    42

    42

    40

    40

    40

    40

    39

    39

    37

    36

    36

    35

    34

    31

    31

    31

    30

    27

    27

    26

    26

    25

    24

    23

    19

    18

    18

    17

    16

    16

    13

    11

    7

    0

    National Guard deployed at polling places in 2026 midterms?

    Sep 10, 5:20 AMNov 10, 11:59 PM
    26.06%chance
    192773

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1686

    594

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    159

    63

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