National Institute of Statistics News

Will China Hongqiao Group's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 6.4 million tonnes?

May 4, 5:53 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

73.83%chance

710697

OptionVotes

YES

16798

5953

Will China Hongqiao Group's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 6.4 million tonnes?

May 4, 5:53 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

70.13%chance

610163

OptionVotes

YES

15322

6527

Will Argentina's monthly inflation drop below 1% in 2026?

Sep 1, 3:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.8%chance

131007

OptionVotes

YES

273

American life expectancy decreases in 2025?

Apr 26, 2:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3%chance

11727

OptionVotes

YES

569

What is the real GDP of China in 2024 as a percentage of it's official number?

Apr 21, 11:32 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

3625

OptionProbability

Above 20%

Above 30%

Above 40%

Above 50%

Above 60%

Above 70%

Above 90%

Above 80%

Above 100%

Will China alumina production exceed 85 Mt as of October 2027?

May 4, 5:15 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

93.14%chance

4513

OptionVotes

YES

375

Will Mexico go through two or more years of negative economic growth by EOY 2030?

May 27, 11:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.77%chance

6325

OptionVotes

YES

150

Will life expectancy in any Italian province achieve 90 years before end of 2040?

Mar 6, 10:33 AMDec 31, 7:59 PM

56.82%chance

5205

OptionVotes

YES

1147

872

Will probabilistic forecasting methodology on mathematical level die, extinct, and cease to exist before 2100?

Nov 3, 8:34 AMDec 31, 11:00 AM

2155

OptionProbability

No, impossible and will never extinct or cease to exist

No, remains a foundational pillar of statistics, finance, and science

No, continues to evolve alongside machine learning and neural networks

Yes, replaced by deterministic AI-driven oracle systems

Yes, rendered obsolete by advances in quantum or absolute precision modeling

N/A due to complete civilizational or technological collapse before 2100

Chance an NLP nerd with shit grades and ouchie-demograaphics for top unis

Jan 24, 6:24 AM

National Institute of Statistics News

Prediction markets for National Institute of Statistics

Prediction markets for National Institute of Statistics

Prediction markets for National Institute of Statistics

Will China Hongqiao Group's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 6.4 million tonnes?

Will China Hongqiao Group's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 6.4 million tonnes?

Will Argentina's monthly inflation drop below 1% in 2026?

American life expectancy decreases in 2025?

What is the real GDP of China in 2024 as a percentage of it's official number?

Will China alumina production exceed 85 Mt as of October 2027?

Will Mexico go through two or more years of negative economic growth by EOY 2030?

Will life expectancy in any Italian province achieve 90 years before end of 2040?

Will probabilistic forecasting methodology on mathematical level die, extinct, and cease to exist before 2100?

Chance an NLP nerd with shit grades and ouchie-demograaphics for top unis

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