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Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?

Aug 28, 4:50 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

43%chance

8712384

OptionVotes

YES

1151

869

Will there be MAJOR, HISTORIC-LEVEL protests against Trump during his second term?

Feb 21, 9:33 PMJan 27, 4:59 AM

67.6%chance

537244

OptionVotes

YES

1445

692

Will SpaceX be nationalized during Trump's second term?

Jun 5, 9:53 PMJan 19, 11:59 PM

7.17%chance

213291

OptionVotes

YES

3597

278

Crash of Learjet 55 - NTSB's determined cause(s) - Multichoice FFA

Feb 1, 1:57 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

61412

OptionProbability

The NTSB's report explicitly states that electrical failure (due to unknown causes) contributed to the crash.

The NTSB does not release a final report by December 31, 2025.

The NTSB's report explicitly states that pilot error (from any aircraft) contributed to the crash.

The NTSB's report explicitly states that electrical failure (explicitly due to a maintenance error) contributed to the crash.

The NTSB's report explicitly states that mechanical failure (due to unknown causes) contributed to the crash.

The NTSB's report explicitly states that mechanical failure (explicitly due to a maintenance error) contributed to the crash.

The NTSB's report does not explicitly state that any of the above causes contributed to the crash.

The NTSB's report explicitly states that mechanical failure (explicitly due to a design flaw or manufacturing defect) contributed to the crash.

The NTSB's report explicitly states that electrical failure (explicitly due to a design flaw or manufacturing defect) contributed to the crash.

The NTSB's report explicitly states that air traffic control error or any other form of ground-based air transport support staff error (excluding maintenance of the aircraft) contributed to the crash.

The NTSB's report explicitly states that an intentional pilot action (suicide, terrorism, etc.) (from any aircraft) contributed to the crash.

The NTSB's report explicitly states that an intentional passenger action (suicide, terrorism, etc.) (from any aircraft) contributed to the crash.

Will the US or Israel use nuclear weapons against Iran before 2029?

Jun 25, 8:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.11%chance

161208

OptionVotes

YES

392

Will there be a Gaza ceasefire and hostage deal before September 2025?

Jul 28, 3:04 AMAug 31, 11:59 PM

26.38%chance

251063

OptionVotes

YES

1671

599

Collision between American Eagle Flight 5342 and Black Hawk - NTSB's determined cause(s) - Multichoice FFA

Feb 1, 2:28 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

14897