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Prediction markets for National Party
OptionProbability
52
46
0
0
0
0
0
Will Christopher Luxon lead the NZ National Party to the next election (probably 2026)?
Jan 24, 6:49 AMOct 14, 11:00 AM
89.39%chance
155128
OptionVotes
1506
887
OptionProbability
26
25
15
14
12
4
4
Will Elon Musk form his own national-level political party by the 2028 Presidential elections?
Nov 8, 6:44 PMNov 8, 7:59 AM
26.48%chance
251381
OptionVotes
167
60
By 2027, will a political party whose platform centers on AI rights get at least 1% of the vote in a national election?
Jul 14, 11:26 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM
11.8%chance
12778
OptionVotes
1109
956
Leader of the National Party of Australia at the next federal election
May 21, 5:41 AMJun 30, 5:38 AM
10701
OptionProbability
62
21
9
6
3
Will National recieve more party vote than Greens, ACT and NZ first combined in the 2026 NZ election?
Jan 29, 2:28 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
61.96%chance
7512
OptionVotes
1276
783
Will a political party aligned with the Effective Altruism movement hold 1+ seats in any nation's parliament by 2030?
Jan 13, 12:27 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
21.5%chance
20465
OptionVotes
1174
911
Will the Liberal National Party of Queensland split by the end of 2027?
May 20, 4:43 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM
11.97%chance
3171
OptionVotes
271
37
Will a party other than PiS and PO win any national election in Poland by 2040?
Apr 7, 9:47 PMJul 31, 9:59 PM
66.34%chance
687
OptionVotes
235
140
Will Labour and National combined recieve 70.00% or more of the party vote in the 2026 NZ election?
Jan 29, 2:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
20.79%chance
211
OptionVotes
1010
962
What will be the national vote share, by party, in the City Mayor and Country Magistrate elections in Taiwan in 2026?
Dec 23, 3:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
00
OptionProbability
20
20
20
20
20