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Prediction markets for National Party
Will Christopher Luxon lead the NZ National Party to the next election (probably 2026)?
Jan 24, 6:49 AMOct 14, 11:00 AM
76%chance
216870
OptionVotes
1045
667
OptionProbability
27
21
17
16
11
5
4
Will Elon Musk form his own national-level political party by the 2028 Presidential elections?
Nov 8, 6:44 PMNov 8, 7:59 AM
26.48%chance
251381
OptionVotes
167
60
Leader of the National Party of Australia at the next federal election
May 21, 5:41 AMJun 30, 5:38 AM
101353
OptionProbability
62
18
11
6
2
1
By 2027, will a political party whose platform centers on AI rights get at least 1% of the vote in a national election?
Jul 14, 11:26 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM
8%chance
131279
OptionVotes
1610
902
OptionProbability
41
23
20
15
1
0
Will National recieve more party vote than Greens, ACT and NZ first combined in the 2026 NZ election?
Jan 29, 2:28 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
65.4%chance
8762
OptionVotes
748
100
Will a political party aligned with the Effective Altruism movement hold 1+ seats in any nation's parliament by 2030?
Jan 13, 12:27 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
21.3%chance
21475
OptionVotes
1184
908
Will the Liberal National Party of Queensland split by the end of 2027?
May 20, 4:43 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM
11.97%chance
3171
OptionVotes
271
37
Will a party other than PiS and PO win any national election in Poland by 2040?
Apr 7, 9:47 PMJul 31, 9:59 PM
66.34%chance
687
OptionVotes
235
140
Will Labour and National combined recieve 70.00% or more of the party vote in the 2026 NZ election?
Jan 29, 2:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
20.26%chance
336
OptionVotes
117
101
What will be the national vote share, by party, in the City Mayor and Country Magistrate elections in Taiwan in 2026?
Dec 23, 3:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
00
OptionProbability
20
20
20
20
20