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Top stories

Uruguayan Parliament Approves Arazatí Project Cancellation as Ortuño Questioned, Orsi Backs Government, Noboa Visits, FDI Drops 21%

Uruguayan Parliament Approves Arazatí Project Cancellation as Ortuño Questioned, Orsi Backs Government, Noboa Visits, FDI Drops 21%

Authors

3

9 months ago

Prediction markets for National Party

Will Christopher Luxon lead the NZ National Party to the next election (probably 2026)?

Jan 24, 6:49 AMOct 14, 11:00 AM

76.48%chance

227343

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1040

682

Who will be elected in King's Cross Ward?

Apr 18, 11:38 AMMay 7, 11:59 PM

34466

OptionProbability

Lotus Melisande Bautista (Labour Party)

Liam Jamal Dominic Martin-Lane (Labour Party)

Jonathan Andrew Simpson (Labour Party)

Joan Paula Baktis (Liberal Democrats)

Derek Mcauley (Liberal Democrats)

Elizabeth Pearson (Liberal Democrats)

Shezan Renny (Camden People's Alliance)

Joel Anderson (Camden People's Alliance)

Paul Renny (Camden People's Alliance)

Andre Cowell-Berry (Reform UK)

Anthony Thomas Hegarty (Reform UK)

Cat Frost (Conservative and Unionist Party)

Robyn Gardner (Conservative and Unionist Party)

Tom Hatton (Conservative and Unionist Party)

Luke McCarthy (National Housing Party United Kingdom)

76

75

74

10

10

10

10

9

9

4

4

2

2

2

2

Leader of the National Party of Australia at the next federal election

May 21, 5:41 AMJun 30, 5:38 AM

111631

OptionProbability

Matt Canavan

Other

Michael McCormack

Colin Boyce

David Littleproud

Barnaby Joyce

67

15

10

5

1

1

Will Elon Musk form his own national-level political party by the 2028 Presidential elections?

Nov 8, 6:44 PMNov 8, 7:59 AM

26.48%chance

251381

OptionVotes

YES

NO

167

60

By 2027, will a political party whose platform centers on AI rights get at least 1% of the vote in a national election?

Jul 14, 11:26 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

8%chance

131279

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1610

902

Will National recieve more party vote than Greens, ACT and NZ first combined in the 2026 NZ election?

Jan 29, 2:28 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56.5%chance

8797

OptionVotes

NO

YES

693

135

Will a political party aligned with the Effective Altruism movement hold 1+ seats in any nation's parliament by 2030?

Jan 13, 12:27 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

21.3%chance

21475

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1184

908

Will the Liberal National Party of Queensland split by the end of 2027?

May 20, 4:43 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

11.97%chance

3171

OptionVotes

YES

NO

271

37

Will a party other than PiS and PO win any national election in Poland by 2040?

Apr 7, 9:47 PMJul 31, 9:59 PM

66.34%chance

687

OptionVotes

NO

YES

235

140

Who will be the Next Leader of the National Party of New Zealand?

Apr 16, 8:36 PMMay 16, 8:34 PM

275

OptionProbability

Chris Bishop

Erica Stanford

Nicola Willis

James Meager

Other

34

17

17

17

17

Will Labour and National combined recieve 70.00% or more of the party vote in the 2026 NZ election?

Jan 29, 2:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.83%chance

438

OptionVotes

NO

YES

119

93

What will be the national vote share, by party, in the City Mayor and Country Magistrate elections in Taiwan in 2026?

Dec 23, 3:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

DPP

KMT

TPP

Independents

Other

20

20

20

20

20

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