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Prediction markets for National Public Data

Who will win the Democratic Primary in the IL-9 District.

Nov 1, 5:55 PMMar 17, 11:59 PM

3018247

OptionProbability

Daniel Biss

Laura Fine

Kat Abugazaleh

Bushra Amiwala

Other

Mike Simmons

Phil Andrew

54

26

18

1

1

0

0

Will Semaglutide cost less than $2000 per year before 2031?

Jun 2, 7:29 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM

82%chance

254017

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2135

468

Will Donald Trump be alive by 31 December 2026?

Feb 7, 11:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

90.75%chance

383550

OptionVotes

NO

YES

293

134

China's public EV charging capacity exceeds 350M kilowatts by 2027?

Nov 29, 1:57 AMFeb 29, 11:59 PM

81.51%chance

132619

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2101

476

Head of state says "dildo" in public before 2030

Oct 22, 1:51 PMDec 31, 4:01 PM

43.81%chance

201455

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1092

890

Will AI have a significant impact on a national (general) election in an OECD country by 01-01-2028?

Aug 19, 10:41 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

82.26%chance

241255

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1445

838

Will a cyber attack by a top 10 GDP nation exposing mass private civilian data occur before 2028?

Mar 15, 4:51 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

77.38%chance

231145

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1801

590

Will the U.S. government attempt to restrict VPN usage before January 1st, 2030?

Aug 9, 3:42 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

33.75%chance

31920

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1149

883

Will blockchain technology be used for storing at least 10% of global GDP by 2027?

Nov 15, 1:49 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

30%chance

10916

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1528

655

Discovery of Phoenician/Greek Colony in Subsaharan Africa before 2050?

Sep 20, 8:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.92%chance

4225

OptionVotes

YES

NO

161

62

Will labour top a national/GB poll for the next UK election by the end of 2026?

Feb 1, 6:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33%chance

495

OptionVotes

YES

NO

142

70

Will the Spanish ex-president José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be tried because of his involvement with Maduro’s government?

Jan 22, 5:20 AMJan 30, 11:59 PM

37.61%chance

435

OptionVotes

YES

NO

129

78

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