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Prediction markets for National Public Data

Will Donald Trump be alive by 31 December 2026?

Feb 7, 11:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

92%chance

549412

OptionVotes

NO

YES

334

130

Will Semaglutide cost less than $2000 per year before 2031?

Jun 2, 7:29 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM

82%chance

264029

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2135

468

When will the Brazilian National Data Protection Authority (ANPD) publish its first dataset on dados.gov.br?

Feb 8, 10:24 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

153309

OptionProbability

Before 2029

Before 2030

Before 2028

Before 2027

Before 2025

Before 2026

75

75

62

56

0

0

China's public EV charging capacity exceeds 350M kilowatts by 2027?

Nov 29, 1:57 AMFeb 29, 11:59 PM

80.06%chance

152799

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2005

499

Head of state says "dildo" in public before 2030

Oct 22, 1:51 PMDec 31, 4:01 PM

43.81%chance

201455

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1092

890

Will AI have a significant impact on a national (general) election in an OECD country by 01-01-2028?

Aug 19, 10:41 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

82.26%chance

241255

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1445

838

Will a cyber attack by a top 10 GDP nation exposing mass private civilian data occur before 2028?

Mar 15, 4:51 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

77.38%chance

231145

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1801

590

Will blockchain technology be used for storing at least 10% of global GDP by 2027?

Nov 15, 1:49 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

29.32%chance

12941

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1553

644

Will the U.S. government attempt to restrict VPN usage before January 1st, 2030?

Aug 9, 3:42 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

33.75%chance

31920

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1149

883

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.28%chance

7315

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1051

819

A public 2026 Dutch government cyberbreach will happen in ... ?

Dec 27, 1:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3124

OptionProbability

Q1 - January, February, March 2026

Q2 - April, May, June 2026

Q3 - July, August, September 2026

Q4 - October, November, December 2026

100

34

34

34

Will the UK revoke citizenship from more than 5,000 naturalised citizens in any single year by EOY2030?

Jul 22, 10:46 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

34.79%chance

465

OptionVotes

YES

NO

137

73

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