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Prediction markets for National Research Institute

Which country will win the 2026 ICPC World Finals?

Apr 28, 6:06 AMApr 9, 4:00 AM

199864

OptionProbability

China

Russia

United States

Japan

Taiwan

Other

Singapore

South Korea

Hungary

Netherlands

Canada

India

Iran

Brazil

46

19

13

7

5

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

Will GiveWell fund Sayana® Press by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 4:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.47%chance

157840

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9428

2859

In 2028, will any major hospital advertise the use of AI as the primary method of diagnosis of human patients?

Mar 10, 12:37 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

35.91%chance

734737

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1391

1188

Will the US or Israel use nuclear weapons against Iran before 2029?

Jun 25, 8:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.29%chance

282313

OptionVotes

YES

NO

313

32

When will global population peak?

May 6, 10:24 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

4703

OptionProbability

2071 or after

2065-2070

2060-2064

2055-2059

2050-2054

2040-2044

2045-2049

2034 or before

2035-2039

24

18

17

15

8

6

6

3

3

Before 2030, will there be an AI-caused administrative disempowerment?

Aug 8, 5:52 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

31.59%chance

6415

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4357

3816

Will Brazil grant marketing approval to polylaminin before 2028?

Sep 11, 2:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.35%chance

5365

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1241

805

Discovery of Phoenician/Greek Colony in Subsaharan Africa before 2050?

Sep 20, 8:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.92%chance

4225

OptionVotes

YES

NO

161

62

Will any Smithsonian museum be closed before EOY 2026?

Mar 28, 10:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.81%chance

8206

OptionVotes

YES

NO

208

48

Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of an international project?

Feb 3, 10:59 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

14.28%chance

7145

OptionVotes

YES

NO

245

41

Will mitigation of AI propaganda & "botpocalypse" concerns get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Nov 1, 9:04 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

59.64%chance

643

OptionVotes

NO

YES

223

191

Will JRT (isotryptamine-LSD) enter the ITP by EOY2031?

Apr 21, 9:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52.44%chance

15

OptionVotes

NO

YES

105

95

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