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Prediction markets for National Research Institute

Will GiveWell fund Sayana® Press by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 4:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.58%chance

156839

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8427

3028

In 2028, will any major hospital advertise the use of AI as the primary method of diagnosis of human patients?

Mar 10, 12:37 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

35.91%chance

734737

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1391

1188

Will the NBER Announce the US is in recession during 2025 by Q2 2026?

May 29, 8:55 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

2%chance

162451

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1140

26

Will the US or Israel use nuclear weapons against Iran before 2029?

Jun 25, 8:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4%chance

171619

OptionVotes

YES

NO

490

20

What will be the life expectancy in the USA in 2050?

Jun 8, 9:22 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

261476

OptionProbability

70-71.03

78.24-79.27

84.42-85.45

85.45-86.48

86.48-87.51

120.47-121.03

77.21-78.24

79.27-80.3

80.3-81.33

81.33-82.36

82.36-83.39

83.39-84.42

87.51-88.54

88.54-89.57

89.57-90.6

71.03-72.06

72.06-73.09

73.09-74.12

74.12-75.15

75.15-76.18

76.18-77.21

90.6-91.63

91.63-92.66

92.66-93.69

93.69-94.72

94.72-95.75

95.75-96.78

96.78-97.81

97.81-98.84

98.84-99.87

99.87-100.9

100.9-101.93

101.93-102.96

102.96-103.99

103.99-105.02

105.02-106.05

106.05-107.08

107.08-108.11

108.11-109.14

109.14-110.17

110.17-111.2

111.2-112.23

112.23-113.26

113.26-114.29

114.29-115.32

115.32-116.35

116.35-117.38

117.38-118.41

118.41-119.44

119.44-120.47

4

4

4

4

4

4

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

Will Brazil grant marketing approval to polylaminin before 2028?

Sep 11, 2:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.35%chance

5365

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1241

805

Will any Smithsonian museum be closed before EOY 2026?

Mar 28, 10:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.81%chance

8206

OptionVotes

YES

NO

208

48

Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of an international project?

Feb 3, 10:59 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

14.28%chance

7145

OptionVotes

YES

NO

245

41

US-UK Tech Prosperity Deal reinstated during Q1 2026

Jan 3, 5:25 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

46.54%chance

282

OptionVotes

NO

YES

300

300

Before 2030, will there be an AI-caused administrative disempowerment?

Aug 8, 5:52 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.42%chance

565

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4007

3989

Will mitigation of AI propaganda & "botpocalypse" concerns get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Nov 1, 9:04 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

59.64%chance

643

OptionVotes

NO

YES

223

191

When will one of the top 5 U.S. universities (HYPSM) fall out of the top 10?

Aug 6, 7:32 AMSep 30, 7:26 AM

110

OptionProbability

After 2045

2025-2029

2030-2034

2035-2039

2040-2044

33

17

17

17

17

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