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Prediction markets for National Review

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky appear on the cover of any of these magazines before 2028?

Jul 13, 11:37 AMJan 2, 12:30 PM

40.95%chance

10518965

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1066

931

Will GiveWell fund Sayana® Press by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 4:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

82.09%chance

2016004

OptionVotes

NO

YES

9006

1009

Will a US presidential candidate make an anti data center remark during their campaign for 2028?

Aug 14, 5:38 AMNov 7, 11:59 PM

95.11%chance

328829

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4409

227

Will 5% (or less) adults smoke cigarettes in England by the end of 2030?

Jun 17, 6:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.43%chance

1268673

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2709

1883

Will 2027 be the hottest year on record

Oct 14, 1:53 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.94%chance

274033

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1601

625

Will Zelensky remain president of Ukraine until the end of 2026?

Nov 3, 3:57 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

92.98%chance

233733

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3639

275

Will cryptocurrencies replace fiat money before 2040?

Apr 21, 7:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.93%chance

102438

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1944

515

Will Trump annex/take military action against Brazil by EOY 2028?

Jun 16, 3:00 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.92%chance

121262

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2005

499

If the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact comes into effect before 2029, will the Supreme Court block it?

Nov 5, 7:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.07%chance

121035

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10039

9943

Which species will get the first regulator-approved drug with lifespan extension as the indication?

Oct 1, 4:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6680

OptionProbability

Dogs

None before 2035

Another species

Humans

41

25

21

12

Will Brazil grant marketing approval to polylaminin before 2028?

Sep 11, 2:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.48%chance

6415

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1291

774

Will the World Meteorological Organization Decertify the 1913 Death Valley 134F Temperature Record During the 2020s?

Aug 22, 12:50 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

34.3%chance

11170

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1224

1092

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