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Prediction markets for National Review

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky appear on the cover of any of these magazines before 2028?

Jul 13, 11:37 AMJan 2, 12:30 PM

19.62%chance

9718085

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1907

586

Will 5% (or less) adults smoke cigarettes in England by the end of 2030?

Jun 17, 6:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.43%chance

1268673

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2709

1883

Will GiveWell fund Sayana® Press by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 4:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.58%chance

156839

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8427

3028

Will the U.S. invoke the TikTok bill against Twitter?

Mar 26, 1:37 AMJan 21, 5:59 AM

2.3%chance

446791

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3057

1039

Which countries will graduate from least developed country (LDC) status before 2030?

May 28, 7:39 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

204745

OptionProbability

São Tomé and Príncipe

Laos

Bangladesh

Djibouti

Nepal

Zambia

Senegal

Angola

Cambodia

Comoros

100

82

77

52

52

47

44

42

41

40

How will the SCOTUS rules on Trump's tariff policy

Oct 9, 12:38 PMDec 31, 1:33 PM

163146

OptionProbability

Partially Unconstitutional

Fully Unconstitutional

Fully Constitutional

47

34

19

Will Bad Bunny make a political statement of some kind during the SB halftime show?

Dec 26, 6:57 PMFeb 8, 11:59 PM

91%chance

442166

OptionVotes

NO

YES

318

31

Will Brazil grant marketing approval to polylaminin before 2028?

Sep 11, 2:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.35%chance

5365

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1241

805

Discovery of Phoenician/Greek Colony in Subsaharan Africa before 2050?

Sep 20, 8:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.92%chance

4225

OptionVotes

YES

NO

161

62

Will NICE recommend randomisation as standard care for any condition

Jan 1, 10:36 PMFeb 1, 11:59 PM

3155

OptionProbability

before 2028

before 2027

before 2026

50

37

0

Will the World Meteorological Organization Decertify the 1913 Death Valley 134F Temperature Record During the 2020s?

Aug 22, 12:50 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

34.84%chance

9151

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1206

1102

Will there be a new TRIUMPH OF THE WILL -like film centered on MAGA/Trump by EOY2028?

Jan 20, 9:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.87%chance

332

OptionVotes

YES

NO

115

87

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