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Prediction markets for National Review

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky appear on the cover of any of these magazines before 2028?

Jul 13, 11:37 AMJan 2, 12:30 PM

20.69%chance

9718155

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1838

604

Will 5% (or less) adults smoke cigarettes in England by the end of 2030?

Jun 17, 6:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.43%chance

1268673

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2709

1883

Will GiveWell fund Sayana® Press by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 4:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.58%chance

156839

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8427

3028

Will the U.S. invoke the TikTok bill against Twitter?

Mar 26, 1:37 AMJan 21, 5:59 AM

2.3%chance

446791

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3057

1039

Will the US or Israel use nuclear weapons against Iran before 2029?

Jun 25, 8:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.89%chance

171638

OptionVotes

YES

NO

249

40

Will Brazil grant marketing approval to polylaminin before 2028?

Sep 11, 2:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.35%chance

5365

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1241

805

Will the UK require biometric ID (e.g. facial recognition or digital fingerprinting) for NHS access by 2030?

Jul 21, 10:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.72%chance

5164

OptionVotes

YES

NO

179

56

Will NICE recommend randomisation as standard care for any condition

Jan 1, 10:36 PMFeb 1, 11:59 PM

3155

OptionProbability

before 2028

before 2027

before 2026

50

37

0

Will the World Meteorological Organization Decertify the 1913 Death Valley 134F Temperature Record During the 2020s?

Aug 22, 12:50 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

34.84%chance

9151

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1206

1102

Scott Alexander receives another critical newspaper profile by end of 2026?

Aug 28, 11:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.08%chance

7136

OptionVotes

YES

NO

136

74

Will the UK revoke citizenship from more than 5,000 naturalised citizens in any single year by EOY2030?

Jul 22, 10:46 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

34.79%chance

465

OptionVotes

YES

NO

137

73

Will 5% (or less) adults smoke cigarettes in England by the end of 2035?

Jun 17, 6:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.51%chance

435

OptionVotes

YES

NO

101

81

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