National Review News

Will Elon musk form a new political party

Jul 1, 1:46 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

37%chance

300370357

OptionVotes

YES

1305

766

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky appear on the cover of any of these magazines before 2028?

Jul 13, 11:37 AMJan 2, 12:30 PM

47.67%chance

8713481

OptionVotes

YES

1050

916

Will 5% (or less) adults smoke cigarettes in England by the end of 2030?

Jun 17, 6:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.98%chance

1248608

OptionVotes

YES

2805

1870

Will the U.S. invoke the TikTok bill against Twitter?

Mar 26, 1:37 AMJan 21, 5:59 AM

2.27%chance

436790

OptionVotes

YES

3099

1038

Karol Nawrocki sworn in as President of Poland on August 6?

Jun 24, 3:03 PMAug 6, 2:53 PM

94%chance

185881

OptionVotes

YES

3958

253

Will GiveWell fund Sayana® Press by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 4:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.05%chance

145589

OptionVotes

YES

7177

3289

10 x State of AI Report 2024 Predictions about 2025

Oct 10, 8:29 AMNov 18, 7:59 AM

243209

OptionProbability

5. An open source alternative to OpenAI o1 surpasses it across a range of reasoning benchmarks.

6. Challengers fail to make any meaningful dent in NVIDIA’s market position.

10. A video game based around interacting with GenAI-based elements will achieve break-out status.

2. An app or website created solely by someone with no coding ability will go viral (e.g. App Store Top-100).

9. A research paper generated by an AI Scientist is accepted at a major ML conference or workshop.

3. Frontier labs implement meaningful changes to data collection practices after cases begin reaching trial.

4. Early EU AI Act implementation ends up softer than anticipated after lawmakers worry they’ve overreached.

7. Levels of investment in humanoids will trail off, as companies struggle to achieve product-market fit.

8. Strong results from Apple’s on-device research accelerates momentum around personal on-device AI.

1. A $10B+ investment from a sovereign state into a US large AI lab invokes national security review.

When will Instituto Butantã's Dengue vaccine be approved by Anvisa?

Jun 23, 12:48 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

3429

OptionProbability

2025.Q2

2025.Q3

2025.Q4

2026 or later

2024.Q3

2024.Q4

2025.Q1

"Trump freezes NIH grants to Princeton in 2025?"

Apr 4, 5:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.22%chance

4205

OptionVotes

YES

1205

830

Will 10% (or less) adults smoke cigarettes in England by the end of 2030?

Jun 17, 6:11 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

84.34%chance

7144

OptionVotes

YES

240

116

Will the World Meteorological Organization Decertify the 1913 Death Valley 134F Temperature Record During the 2020s?

Aug 22, 12:50 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

36.46%chance

899

OptionVotes

YES

1142

1119

In which years will the US Congress hold UFO/UAP hearings?

Nov 15, 4:05 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

472

OptionProbability

2025

2026

2027

2028

National Review News

Prediction markets for National Review

Prediction markets for National Review

Prediction markets for National Review

Will Elon musk form a new political party

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky appear on the cover of any of these magazines before 2028?

Will 5% (or less) adults smoke cigarettes in England by the end of 2030?

Will the U.S. invoke the TikTok bill against Twitter?

Karol Nawrocki sworn in as President of Poland on August 6?

Will GiveWell fund Sayana® Press by 1st January 2027?

10 x State of AI Report 2024 Predictions about 2025

When will Instituto Butantã's Dengue vaccine be approved by Anvisa?

"Trump freezes NIH grants to Princeton in 2025?"

Will 10% (or less) adults smoke cigarettes in England by the end of 2030?

Will the World Meteorological Organization Decertify the 1913 Death Valley 134F Temperature Record During the 2020s?

In which years will the US Congress hold UFO/UAP hearings?

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