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Prediction markets for National Review

Will Elon musk form a new political party

Jul 1, 1:46 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2.24%chance

399624717

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10867

351

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky appear on the cover of any of these magazines before 2028?

Jul 13, 11:37 AMJan 2, 12:30 PM

22.96%chance

9417451

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1707

640

Will 5% (or less) adults smoke cigarettes in England by the end of 2030?

Jun 17, 6:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.14%chance

1268613

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2769

1875

Will the U.S. invoke the TikTok bill against Twitter?

Mar 26, 1:37 AMJan 21, 5:59 AM

2.27%chance

436790

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3099

1038

Will GiveWell fund Sayana® Press by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 4:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.05%chance

145589

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7177

3289

Who will acquire Intel in 2025? (Resolves N/A if no acquisition)

Jan 18, 11:50 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

11887

OptionProbability

Other

NVIDIA

Qualcomm

Microsoft

Broadcom

Amazon

Google

Elon Musk / Tesla / xAI

TSMC

Apple

Samsung

AMD

A consortium where no single entity has majority control

30

17

11

6

5

5

5

5

4

3

3

3

3

Will Brazil grant marketing approval to polylaminin before 2028?

Sep 11, 2:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.35%chance

5365

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1241

805

"Trump freezes NIH grants to Princeton in 2025?"

Apr 4, 5:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.98%chance

4305

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1105

905

Discovery of Phoenician/Greek Colony in Subsaharan Africa before 2050?

Sep 20, 8:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.43%chance

4182

OptionVotes

YES

NO

204

49

Will the World Meteorological Organization Decertify the 1913 Death Valley 134F Temperature Record During the 2020s?

Aug 22, 12:50 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

34.9%chance

8149

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1192

1092

Scott Alexander receives another critical newspaper profile by end of 2026?

Aug 28, 11:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.08%chance

7136

OptionVotes

YES

NO

136

74

Will the UK revoke citizenship from more than 5,000 naturalised citizens in any single year by EOY2030?

Jul 22, 10:46 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

34.79%chance

465

OptionVotes

YES

NO

137

73

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