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Prediction markets for National Review

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky appear on the cover of any of these magazines before 2028?

Jul 13, 11:37 AMJan 2, 12:30 PM

34.41%chance

10318774

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1245

823

Will a US presidential candidate make an anti data center remark during their campaign for 2028?

Aug 14, 5:38 AMNov 7, 11:59 PM

95.11%chance

328829

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4409

227

Will 5% (or less) adults smoke cigarettes in England by the end of 2030?

Jun 17, 6:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.43%chance

1268673

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2709

1883

Will GiveWell fund Sayana® Press by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 4:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.47%chance

157840

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9428

2859

Will the U.S. invoke the TikTok bill against Twitter?

Mar 26, 1:37 AMJan 21, 5:59 AM

2.26%chance

456841

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3107

1037

Will cryptocurrencies replace fiat money before 2040?

Apr 21, 7:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.93%chance

102438

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1944

515

Will the US or Israel use nuclear weapons against Iran before 2029?

Jun 25, 8:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.29%chance

282313

OptionVotes

YES

NO

313

32

Will Trump annex/take military action against Brazil by EOY 2028?

Jun 16, 3:00 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.6%chance

111162

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1905

525

Will Furnace Creek, Death Valley record a high temperature of at least 129.0°F by September 28, 2026 (9/28/26)?

Jun 13, 8:04 PMSep 27, 11:59 PM

5.05%chance

13610

OptionVotes

YES

NO

434

23

Will Israel be banned before Eurovision Song Contest 2027 happens?

May 18, 9:55 AMMay 15, 7:00 PM

9.71%chance

12391

OptionVotes

YES

NO

305

33

Will Brazil grant marketing approval to polylaminin before 2028?

Sep 11, 2:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.35%chance

5365

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1241

805

Will the World Meteorological Organization Decertify the 1913 Death Valley 134F Temperature Record During the 2020s?

Aug 22, 12:50 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

34.49%chance

10163

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1218

1095

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