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Prediction markets for National Review

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky appear on the cover of any of these magazines before 2028?

Jul 13, 11:37 AMJan 2, 12:30 PM

37.26%chance

10118664

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1162

869

Will 5% (or less) adults smoke cigarettes in England by the end of 2030?

Jun 17, 6:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.43%chance

1268673

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2709

1883

Will GiveWell fund Sayana® Press by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 4:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.48%chance

157839

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9427

2859

Will the U.S. invoke the TikTok bill against Twitter?

Mar 26, 1:37 AMJan 21, 5:59 AM

2.3%chance

446791

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3057

1039

Will cryptocurrencies replace fiat money before 2040?

Apr 21, 7:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.93%chance

102438

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1944

515

Will Democrats begin to call the $1.776 billion dollar slush fund the “Epstein Loyalty Fund” by the midterms election?

May 21, 12:51 PMNov 2, 11:59 PM

20%chance

121718

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2000

500

Will Trump annex/take military action against Brazil by EOY 2028?

Jun 16, 3:00 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.96%chance

10862

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1605

623

Will Brazil grant marketing approval to polylaminin before 2028?

Sep 11, 2:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.35%chance

5365

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1241

805

Will the World Meteorological Organization Decertify the 1913 Death Valley 134F Temperature Record During the 2020s?

Aug 22, 12:50 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

34.49%chance

10163

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1218

1095

Will NICE recommend randomisation as standard care for any condition

Jan 1, 10:36 PMFeb 1, 11:59 PM

3155

OptionProbability

before 2028

before 2027

before 2026

50

37

0

Will a high-surf advisory be issued for the Orange County or San Diego coastline between August 6 and August 26, 2026?

Aug 5, 5:33 PMAug 27, 6:59 AM

52%chance

981

OptionVotes

NO

YES

104

96

Under 55! U.S. Dem. Presidential nominee will not have reached age 55 by the time they win the nomination in 2028.

Jun 1, 12:33 PMAug 31, 11:59 PM

45.27%chance

325

OptionVotes

NO

YES

109

88

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