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Prediction markets for National Review

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky appear on the cover of any of these magazines before 2028?

Jul 13, 11:37 AMJan 2, 12:30 PM

20.69%chance

9718155

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1838

604

Will 5% (or less) adults smoke cigarettes in England by the end of 2030?

Jun 17, 6:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.43%chance

1268673

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2709

1883

Will GiveWell fund Sayana® Press by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 4:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.58%chance

156839

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8427

3028

Will the U.S. invoke the TikTok bill against Twitter?

Mar 26, 1:37 AMJan 21, 5:59 AM

2.3%chance

446791

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3057

1039

Will cryptocurrencies replace fiat money before 2040?

Apr 21, 7:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.92%chance

92252

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2070

483

Will Brazil grant marketing approval to polylaminin before 2028?

Sep 11, 2:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.35%chance

5365

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1241

805

Will Iran launch a fatal terrorist attack on U.S. soil by EOY 2026?

Apr 7, 3:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.95%chance

8215

OptionVotes

YES

NO

214

47

Will the World Meteorological Organization Decertify the 1913 Death Valley 134F Temperature Record During the 2020s?

Aug 22, 12:50 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

34.84%chance

9151

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1206

1102

Scott Alexander receives another critical newspaper profile by end of 2026?

Aug 28, 11:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.92%chance

8146

OptionVotes

YES

NO

146

68

Who will be the next governor-elect of São Paulo in 2026?

Apr 24, 10:27 PMOct 25, 11:59 PM

280

OptionProbability

Tarcísio de Freitas

Fernando Haddad

Márcio França

Kim Kataguiri

Other

68

9

8

8

8

UK electoral advertising to become regulated so that fact-based claims are accurate, by the end of 2030

Feb 9, 9:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31%chance

568

OptionVotes

YES

NO

149

67

Will JRT (isotryptamine-LSD) enter the ITP by EOY2031?

Apr 21, 9:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52.44%chance

15

OptionVotes

NO

YES

105

95

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