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Prediction markets for National Security Agency
[ACX 2026] How many of these 15 top US executive branch officials will be out before 2027?
Jan 7, 12:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
2233175
OptionProbability
27
24
22
12
8
3
2
1
1
1
OptionVotes
153
65
Will the US enact AI regulation for all Mythos+ models in 2026?
Jun 16, 6:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
29.78%chance
175742
OptionVotes
15357
6512
When will the Finnish citizens’ initiative on Digital Independence reach 50,000 signatures?
Feb 22, 6:24 AMDec 31, 9:59 PM
81444
OptionProbability
99
68
4
2
2
1
0
Will Anthropic legally challenge the US government directive to suspend access to Fable?
Jun 13, 9:29 AMJul 30, 10:59 PM
9.25%chance
221080
OptionVotes
313
32
OptionVotes
181
55
Will a nuclear bomb be used against Iran before 2030?
Apr 7, 3:57 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
10.21%chance
14449
OptionVotes
296
34
Will Iran launch a fatal terrorist attack on U.S. soil by EOY 2026?
Apr 7, 3:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
17.28%chance
10320
OptionVotes
219
46
Government employee fired in Trump second term exposed as a spy on behalf of a foreign country
Mar 6, 11:22 PMJan 21, 9:59 PM
34.1%chance
10127
OptionVotes
139
72
OptionVotes
108
93
Will a government mandate restrict access to an OpenAI or xAI model on security or safety grounds before 2027?
Jun 13, 9:11 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
40.25%chance
597
OptionVotes
122
82
OptionVotes
171
59


