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Top stories

Joseph Francescon Confirmed as NSA Deputy Director Amid Vetting Questions Over Donation to Democrat; Rubio Shuts Down Gazan Visas

US Gov Appointments

US Foreign Policy

Joseph Francescon Confirmed as NSA Deputy Director Amid Vetting Questions Over Donation to Democrat; Rubio Shuts Down Gazan Visas

Authors

5

1 year ago

Prediction markets for National Security Agency

[ACX 2026] How many of these 15 top US executive branch officials will be out before 2027?

Jan 7, 12:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2333825

OptionProbability

5

4

6 - 7

3

8 - 9

10 - 11

12 - 15

0

1

2

27

24

21

12

8

3

2

1

1

1

Will the US enact AI regulation for all Mythos+ models in 2026?

Jun 16, 6:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.63%chance

2733820

OptionVotes

YES

NO

24158

4139

ICE agent murdered on duty by end of 2026?

Jan 24, 11:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17%chance

9111441

OptionVotes

YES

NO

221

45

Will ICE be renamed as NICE in 2026?

Apr 27, 3:30 AMJan 1, 4:27 AM

23.35%chance

181074

OptionVotes

YES

NO

181

55

Will a nuclear bomb be used against Iran before 2030?

Apr 7, 3:57 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.98%chance

14549

OptionVotes

YES

NO

396

25

Will Iran launch a fatal terrorist attack on U.S. soil by EOY 2026?

Apr 7, 3:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.97%chance

14386

OptionVotes

YES

NO

271

37

Will there be any public agreement on frontier AI between China and the US or American AI companies before 2028?

Sep 13, 3:26 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

74.49%chance

8334

OptionVotes

NO

YES

171

59

Will a government mandate restrict access to an OpenAI or xAI model on security or safety grounds before 2027?

Jun 13, 9:11 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

91.06%chance

9281

OptionVotes

NO

YES

319

31

Government employee fired in Trump second term exposed as a spy on behalf of a foreign country

Mar 6, 11:22 PMJan 21, 9:59 PM

34.1%chance

10127

OptionVotes

YES

NO

139

72

Will a country do a bombing live stream by EOY 2030?

Jun 19, 3:00 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

46.15%chance

8112

OptionVotes

YES

NO

108

93

Will MBG get defunded before 2027?

Mar 12, 5:52 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.5%chance

592

OptionVotes

YES

NO

171

59

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