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Prediction markets for National Security Minister

Which main party will form a Government after the 2026 New Zealand General Election

Mar 6, 6:39 AMDec 24, 11:59 PM

1615536

OptionProbability

Labour

National

53

47

Will Trump attack Greenland in 2026?

Jan 7, 1:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2%chance

382938

OptionVotes

YES

NO

700

14

Will the US or Israel threaten to use nuclear weapons against Iran before 2029?

Jun 22, 2:04 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

55.29%chance

22923

OptionVotes

NO

YES

111

90

Will BJP lost in 2029 India Parliamentary Election?

Jul 17, 12:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.02%chance

4636

OptionVotes

YES

NO

229

44

Will Black Sea Grain Initiative be reactivated by EOY 2026?

Sep 14, 11:52 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

46.46%chance

2115

OptionVotes

YES

NO

107

93

Will Australia enter into any similar agreement to the Falepili Union with another Pacific Island country before 2030?

Nov 10, 11:06 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

68.93%chance

594

OptionVotes

NO

YES

182

129

Will any other country enter into a similar agreement to the Falepili Union with a Pacific Island country before 2030?

Nov 10, 11:50 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

74.61%chance

250

OptionVotes

NO

YES

140

61

Which of these Pacific Island countries will sign 'climate refuge pacts' with Australia before 2030?

Nov 10, 11:30 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

445

OptionProbability

Tonga

Kiribati

Vanuatu

Fiji

Nauru

Palau

Marshall Islands

Micronesia

Samoa

Solomon Islands

59

59

59

59

51

50

50

50

50

41

Which will be the next Pacific Island country to sign a 'climate refuge pact' with Australia?

Nov 10, 11:20 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

218

OptionProbability

Marshall Islands

Other

Kiribati

Micronesia

Tonga

Palau

None

Nauru

21

19

18

12

10

7

6

6

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