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Prediction markets for National Security Minister

Will Trump attack Greenland in 2026?

Jan 7, 1:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3.45%chance

341344

OptionVotes

YES

NO

529

19

Will the US or Israel threaten to use nuclear weapons against Iran before 2029?

Jun 22, 2:04 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

68.5%chance

18802

OptionVotes

NO

YES

147

68

Which main party will form a Government after the 2026 New Zealand General Election

Mar 6, 6:39 AMDec 24, 11:59 PM

7118

OptionProbability

National

Labour

65

35

Will Australia enter into any similar agreement to the Falepili Union with another Pacific Island country before 2030?

Nov 10, 11:06 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

68.93%chance

594

OptionVotes

NO

YES

182

129

Will any other country enter into a similar agreement to the Falepili Union with a Pacific Island country before 2030?

Nov 10, 11:50 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

74.61%chance

250

OptionVotes

NO

YES

140

61

Which of these Pacific Island countries will sign 'climate refuge pacts' with Australia before 2030?

Nov 10, 11:30 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

445

OptionProbability

Tonga

Kiribati

Vanuatu

Fiji

Nauru

Palau

Marshall Islands

Micronesia

Samoa

Solomon Islands

59

59

59

59

51

50

50

50

50

41

Which will be the next Pacific Island country to sign a 'climate refuge pact' with Australia?

Nov 10, 11:20 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

218

OptionProbability

Marshall Islands

Other

Kiribati

Micronesia

Tonga

Palau

None

Nauru

21

19

18

12

10

7

6

6

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