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Prediction markets for National Security Service

Leopold Aschenbrenner makes no public statements of consequence for a 2-year period before 2035

Jun 10, 1:57 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

39.1%chance

10950

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1248

801

Will Evgeny Lebedev remain a peer in 2025?

Jan 22, 9:32 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

80%chance

7143

OptionVotes

NO

YES

208

66

Will the TAI TF Kaan have entered service in Turkey by the end of 2030?

Jun 14, 7:59 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

65.09%chance

576

OptionVotes

NO

YES

76

61

In which years will the US Congress hold UFO/UAP hearings?

Nov 15, 4:05 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

472

OptionProbability

2025

2026

2027

2028

80

59

59

45

How many times will ULA launch in 2025?

May 2, 5:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

371

OptionProbability

5

4

6

3

1

2

7

8

9

10 or greater

26

23

14

6

5

5

5

5

5

5

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