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Prediction markets for National Technology

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky appear on the cover of any of these magazines before 2028?

Jul 13, 11:37 AMJan 2, 12:30 PM

34.41%chance

10318774

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1245

823

Will Earth be a utopia for humans in the year 2100?

Feb 1, 3:59 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

34.27%chance

444403

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1100

843

8. AI a central issue in the 2026 U.S. midterms. Politics get complex, especially regarding job oss [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

77.1%chance

273066

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1838

546

3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

86.91%chance

151810

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2581

389

Will blockchain technology be used for storing at least 10% of global GDP by 2027?

Nov 15, 1:49 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

18.46%chance

191770

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2102

476

Will humanity establish the foundations for a Type 1 civilization by the end of the 21st century?

Dec 31, 8:58 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

55.74%chance

291727

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1057

918

Will the FY2027 NDAA enter law by February 1st 2027, and direct U.S.-Israel military cooperation in AI?

Jun 6, 9:46 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM

81.64%chance

7986

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1483

858

Leopold Aschenbrenner makes no public statements of consequence for a 2-year period before 2035

Jun 10, 1:57 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

39.1%chance

10950

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1248

801

Will the U.S. government attempt to restrict VPN usage before January 1st, 2030?

Aug 9, 3:42 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

33.75%chance

31920

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1149

883

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.21%chance

14835

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1015

943

Will the US government adopt and deploy a post-quantum cryptography standard before 2030?

Nov 17, 2:13 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

86.6%chance

17596

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1226

927

Will CNSA's Chang'e 8 mission successfully land on the moon?

Sep 16, 2:46 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

75.98%chance

13491

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1350

844

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