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Prediction markets for National Trust

By the end of 2028, will there be a public scandal about someone's brain signals being collected or analyzed without their consent?

Feb 9, 10:58 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

40%chance

24919563

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2714

1726

Will xAI replace Anthropic's DoW deal?

Feb 26, 11:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.74%chance

244278

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2405

416

Will the Presidio Trust be Dissolved by End of 2026?

Feb 20, 2:44 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

14.54%chance

63393

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2425

412

Will cryptocurrencies replace fiat money before 2040?

Apr 21, 7:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.92%chance

92252

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2070

483

If entire humanity were to trust a single nation for total control of all nukes, who would win such a global poll?

Dec 28, 9:30 AMJan 1, 6:29 PM

241091

OptionProbability

Other

Japan

Switzerland

United Kingdom

Gaza

Argentina

Bhutan

None of the above / nobody can be trusted

Antarctiaca/UN/other such orgs

USA

India

New Zealand

China

EU

Ireland

Vatican City

Singapore

16

12

11

11

11

10

7

5

5

4

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

What will be the outcome of the TicketMaster/Live Nation anti-trust lawsuit by the DoJ?

Apr 16, 4:46 PMDec 31, 7:59 AM

14507

OptionProbability

Settlement

Judgement in favor of the Justice Department

Judgement in favor of TicketMaster/Live Nation

Dismissal / dropped

Mistrial

56

23

11

5

5

Conservationists purchase Rothbury estate (England's largest land sale in 30 years)?

Oct 29, 11:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 AM

68.6%chance

5478

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1478

677

Will Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu get a pardon from President Isaac Herzog?

Nov 30, 11:59 AMDec 31, 11:57 AM

47.06%chance

17370

OptionVotes

YES

NO

106

94

Estevao plays in the 2026 World Cup

Apr 24, 4:24 PMJul 19, 11:59 PM

21%chance

9221

OptionVotes

YES

NO

194

52

Who will be the next governor-elect of São Paulo in 2026?

Apr 24, 10:27 PMOct 25, 11:59 PM

280

OptionProbability

Tarcísio de Freitas

Fernando Haddad

Márcio França

Kim Kataguiri

Other

68

9

8

8

8

UK electoral advertising to become regulated so that fact-based claims are accurate, by the end of 2030

Feb 9, 9:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31%chance

568

OptionVotes

YES

NO

149

67

Cine va avea primul sistem de tren metropolitan din Romania?

Apr 13, 1:09 PMDec 31, 2:07 PM

150

OptionProbability

TPBI

Asociatia de Transport Brasov

Primaria Cluj Napoca

Other

70

10

10

10

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