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Top stories

Jonathan Turley Says John Bolton Could Face 5 to 20 Years Over FBI Probe Into Classified Material at Maryland Home

Jonathan Turley Says John Bolton Could Face 5 to 20 Years Over FBI Probe Into Classified Material at Maryland Home

Authors

17

10 months ago

UK Students Collect GCSE Results as Officials Eye Post-Covid Stabilisation

UK Students Collect GCSE Results as Officials Eye Post-Covid Stabilisation

Authors

7

10 months ago

BlackRock, Nuveen, Taconic Join 90% PREPA Bondholders Abandoning Debt Deal as Luma Energy Sues Amid Oversight Board Shakeup

US Gov Appointments

BlackRock, Nuveen, Taconic Join 90% PREPA Bondholders Abandoning Debt Deal as Luma Energy Sues Amid Oversight Board Shakeup

Authors

3

10 months ago

Prediction markets for National

Will the National Guard kill at least 10 protestors by end of 2026?

Apr 28, 7:33 PMJan 1, 8:29 PM

6.59%chance

4442675

OptionVotes

YES

NO

37678

2657

OpenAI will be nationalized or have the Defense Production Act applied to it by mid 2030

Jun 5, 3:33 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

34.5%chance

6422808

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13402

7535

Will much AI research be nationalized by 2027?

Apr 28, 9:31 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

15.74%chance

4122132

OptionVotes

YES

NO

23139

4322

Will messaging apps with end-to-end encryption (like Signal) be banned in a majority of G7 nations by the end of 2030?

Jun 23, 7:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

12.99%chance

5513610

OptionVotes

YES

NO

20519

7234

Will any of the below AI companies be nationalized, according to the definition in the description?

Dec 9, 7:39 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

128484

OptionProbability

Any frontier AI company, "soft nationalization"

Other frontier AI firm, "soft nationalization"

xAI, "soft nationalization"

Anthropic, "soft nationalization"

OpenAI, "soft nationalization"

Any frontier AI company, "hard nationalization"

Other frontier AI firm, "hard nationalization"

Google DeepMind, "soft nationalization"

xAI, "hard nationalization"

Anthropic, "hard nationalization"

OpenAI, "hard nationalization"

Google DeepMind, "hard nationalization"

79

64

56

50

49

47

40

39

30

25

21

19

Chat-style AI models will be a big part of 10% or more of workers's workflows in developed nations by 2027

Feb 2, 3:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.07%chance

1298015

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1846

1470

What other companies and brands will the Trump administration nationally socialize?

Aug 24, 3:22 AMJan 20, 11:59 PM

346089

OptionProbability

Raytheon / RTX

Boeing

OAN

Lockheed Martin

ExxonMobil

Northrop Grumman

General Dynamics

Palantir

Chevron

Newsmax

SpaceX

CNN

TikTok

The Washington Post

27

24

23

21

20

20

20

17

15

14

10

10

7

6

Reform UK, French National Rally, and AfD all in power simultaneously this decade?

Sep 18, 4:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.3%chance

41275

OptionVotes

YES

NO

255

39

Will a public USA company be nationalized by EOY 2040? (not a bank)

Feb 26, 7:10 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29.89%chance

361151

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2180

1894

Which country will next change its national electrical frequency after 2025?

Aug 22, 11:27 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Japan

South Korea

Philippines

Other

25

25

25

25

Where will the 11th U.S. National Eucharistic Congress in 2029 take place?

Dec 12, 4:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Chicago, IL

New Orleans, LA

St. Louis, MO

Los Angeles, CA

Philadelphia, PA

Boston, MA

San Antonio, TX

Atlanta, GA

Denver, CO

Dallas, TX

Other (Comment below for which city - may add to the list)

Other

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

Who will be Portugal's next permanent men's national team head coach after Roberto Martínez?

Jun 23, 9:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Jorge Jesus

Abel Ferreira

Sérgio Conceição

Luís Freire

José Mourinho

Other

17

17

17

17

17

17

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