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Top stories

Jonathan Turley Says John Bolton Could Face 5 to 20 Years Over FBI Probe Into Classified Material at Maryland Home

Jonathan Turley Says John Bolton Could Face 5 to 20 Years Over FBI Probe Into Classified Material at Maryland Home

Authors

17

6 months ago

UK Students Collect GCSE Results as Officials Eye Post-Covid Stabilisation

UK Students Collect GCSE Results as Officials Eye Post-Covid Stabilisation

Authors

7

6 months ago

BlackRock, Nuveen, Taconic Join 90% PREPA Bondholders Abandoning Debt Deal as Luma Energy Sues Amid Oversight Board Shakeup

US Gov Appointments

BlackRock, Nuveen, Taconic Join 90% PREPA Bondholders Abandoning Debt Deal as Luma Energy Sues Amid Oversight Board Shakeup

Authors

3

5 months ago

Prediction markets for National

China's rebar failure rate below 20% in 2025 national quality check?

Nov 26, 6:18 AMJul 29, 10:59 PM

95.17%chance

101617481

OptionVotes

NO

YES

444217

22541

Will the National Guard kill at least 10 protestors by end of 2026?

Apr 28, 7:33 PMJan 1, 8:29 PM

8.17%chance

3635845

OptionVotes

YES

NO

33538

2986

OpenAI will be nationalized or have the Defense Production Act applied to it by mid 2030

Jun 5, 3:33 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

27.06%chance

6120269

OptionVotes

YES

NO

16061

6360

Will much AI research be nationalized by 2027?

Apr 28, 9:31 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

16.04%chance

3518595

OptionVotes

YES

NO

22880

4371

Will messaging apps with end-to-end encryption (like Signal) be banned in a majority of G7 nations by the end of 2030?

Jun 23, 7:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

14.08%chance

5312290

OptionVotes

YES

NO

19219

7438

Will any of the below AI companies be nationalized, according to the definition in the description?

Dec 9, 7:39 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

98274

OptionProbability

Any frontier AI company, "soft nationalization"

Other frontier AI firm, "soft nationalization"

xAI, "soft nationalization"

Anthropic, "soft nationalization"

OpenAI, "soft nationalization"

Any frontier AI company, "hard nationalization"

Google DeepMind, "soft nationalization"

Other frontier AI firm, "hard nationalization"

xAI, "hard nationalization"

Anthropic, "hard nationalization"

OpenAI, "hard nationalization"

Google DeepMind, "hard nationalization"

78

64

56

50

49

46

39

39

30

25

21

19

Who will win the 2026 Science Olympiad National Tournament [Division C]?

Nov 27, 8:09 PMMay 23, 10:59 PM

102372

OptionProbability

Troy H.S. (Fullerton, CA)

Montgomery H.S. (Skillman, NJ)

Seven Lakes H.S. (Katy, TX)

Monta Vista H.S. (Cupertino, CA)

Mason H.S. (Mason, OH)

Solon H.S. (Solon, OH)

Mountain View H.S. (Mountain View, CA)

Harriton H.S. (Rosemont, PA)

New Trier H.S. (Winnetka, IL)

Madison West H.S. (Madison, WI)

Marquette University H.S. (Milwaukee, WI)

'Iolani School (Honolulu, HI)

Acton-Boxborough Regional H.S. (Acton, MA)

Other

Lexington H.S. (Lexington, MA)

Novi H.S. (Novi, MI)

Pioneer H.S. (Ann Arbor, MI)

Liberal Arts and Science Academy (Austin, TX)

Castro Valley H.S. (Castro Valley, CA)

West Windsor-Plainsboro H.S. South (West Windsor, NJ)

52

11

7

7

6

4

4

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

Reform UK, French National Rally, and AfD all in power simultaneously this decade?

Sep 18, 4:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.44%chance

41265

OptionVotes

YES

NO

265

38

Will a public USA company be nationalized by EOY 2040? (not a bank)

Feb 26, 7:10 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29.89%chance

361151

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2180

1894

Where will the 11th U.S. National Eucharistic Congress in 2029 take place?

Dec 12, 4:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Chicago, IL

New Orleans, LA

St. Louis, MO

Los Angeles, CA

Philadelphia, PA

Boston, MA

San Antonio, TX

Atlanta, GA

Denver, CO

Dallas, TX

Other (Comment below for which city - may add to the list)

Other

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

What will be the national vote share, by party, in the City Mayor and Country Magistrate elections in Taiwan in 2026?

Dec 23, 3:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

DPP

KMT

TPP

Independents

Other

20

20

20

20

20

Which country will next change its national electrical frequency after 2025?

Aug 22, 11:27 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Japan

South Korea

Philippines

Other

25

25

25

25

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