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Prediction markets for NATO
OptionVotes
4006
957
OptionVotes
3719
1543
OptionVotes
2999
1011
OptionVotes
2760
1926
Will the Russian Federation invade a NATO country before 2028?
Jan 16, 1:30 PMJan 2, 10:59 PM
19.34%chance
424081
OptionVotes
1171
1061
OptionVotes
1400
856
OptionVotes
2060
1925
Will any European country initiate withdrawal from NATO by the end of 2027?
Jul 10, 1:54 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM
14.31%chance
19601
OptionVotes
1148
940
Conditional on a NATO country being invaded, will >80% of NATO honor Article 5?
Aug 21, 1:28 PMDec 31, 2:21 PM
59.21%chance
8485
OptionVotes
1205
830
Will the next change in NATO membership result in an increase in the number of members?
Mar 29, 7:00 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
63.6%chance
7397
OptionVotes
1322
757
Before 2030, will a NATO soldier publish a memoir claiming they were secretly on Ukrainian soil in 2022 or 2023?
Jun 29, 6:30 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM
72.11%chance
14372
OptionVotes
1003
984
Will there be an attack on civilians in a NATO country committed primarily with a laser weapon with >19 casualties?
Oct 12, 3:57 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM
25.72%chance
11253
OptionVotes
1030
978