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Top stories

Moscow Rejects Western Security Plan for Ukraine, Warns Against NATO Troops

Moscow Rejects Western Security Plan for Ukraine, Warns Against NATO Troops

Authors

12

11 months ago

NYT: Russian Drones Track U.S. Arms Routes in Germany; Kremlin Denies

NYT: Russian Drones Track U.S. Arms Routes in Germany; Kremlin Denies

Authors

12

11 months ago

Portugal’s President Calls Trump ‘Russian Asset,’ Pressuring NATO Unity

US Foreign Policy

Portugal’s President Calls Trump ‘Russian Asset,’ Pressuring NATO Unity

Authors

10

11 months ago

NATO's Rutte Warns Russia Could Pursue Assassinations After Kyiv Strikes

Authors

6

11 months ago

Russia Warns Austria Against NATO Bid, Threatens Retaliation

Authors

4

11 months ago

NATO Allies to Hit 2% Defence Mark amid Rutte Warning on Russia-China Buildup

Authors

30

1 year ago

Germany Approves Voluntary Military Service Plan With Conscription Backstop

Authors

35

1 year ago

Rheinmetall Unveils €500 Million German Plant to Lift Europe’s Shell Output

Authors

24

1 year ago

Prediction markets for NATO

Is a NATO-aligned or anti-Russian entity responsible for the Nord Stream attack?

Oct 1, 6:02 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

96.55%chance

15847147

OptionVotes

NO

YES

13262

816

Will Ukraine join NATO by 2030?

Aug 17, 11:42 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

16.46%chance

13829610

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3813

994

Will Ukraine join NATO by 2033?

Jun 17, 10:18 AMJan 1, 8:59 PM

27.41%chance

26724133

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3719

1543

Will Ukraine join NATO before July 2033?

Jul 2, 5:24 PMJul 1, 9:59 PM

30.71%chance

15222806

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2999

1011

Will Kazakhstan join NATO by 2033?

Jun 15, 8:59 PMJan 1, 8:59 PM

12.39%chance

1366516

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2822

1918

Will Ukraine join NATO before end of 2030?

Jan 21, 8:41 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

20.05%chance

242300

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1400

856

Will Ukraine join NATO before Family Guy ends?

Mar 7, 7:59 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

38.89%chance

301791

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2060

1925

Will any European country initiate withdrawal from NATO by the end of 2027?

Jul 10, 1:54 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

14.31%chance

19601

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1148

940

Conditional on a NATO country being invaded, will >80% of NATO honor Article 5?

Aug 21, 1:28 PMDec 31, 2:21 PM

59.21%chance

8485

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1205

830

Will the next change in NATO membership result in an increase in the number of members?

Mar 29, 7:00 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

63%chance

6380

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1305

766

Before 2030, will a NATO soldier publish a memoir claiming they were secretly on Ukrainian soil in 2022 or 2023?

Jun 29, 6:30 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

72.11%chance

14372

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1003

984

Will there be an attack on civilians in a NATO country committed primarily with a laser weapon with >19 casualties?

Oct 12, 3:57 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

25.72%chance

11253

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1030

978

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