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Prediction markets for NAV

Will Navier-Stokes be solved with the help of Google or Alphabet scientists by the end of 2027?

Sep 24, 1:58 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.65%chance

12065765

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13627

10590

Will Iran sink a US Navy ship before 2030?

Jun 23, 3:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.37%chance

7112322

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5673

2720

Will the Navier-Stokes problem be solved by 2030?

Jan 2, 9:09 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

26.57%chance

6712301

OptionVotes

NO

YES

995

990

Was Alexei Navalny killed [see description]?

Feb 19, 10:23 AMJun 30, 9:59 PM

74.63%chance

365079

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1499

748

Will Yulia Navalnaya be leader of Russia? 🇷🇺🎤👩🏼‍🦰

Feb 19, 5:47 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3.78%chance

212485

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2171

895

Will the People's Liberation Army Navy lose at least one surface vessel before 2030?

Jun 10, 2:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56.51%chance

211148

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1140

877

Does a smooth Navier-Stokes solution always exist?

Sep 8, 8:10 AMDec 31, 12:00 PM

13.39%chance

26972

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1426

884

P(Aliens) - Are the 2020-2022 Pentagon UFO Navy videos evidence of human-level or above intelligent life in the Milky Way?

Dec 12, 11:45 PMDec 1, 11:59 PM

20.13%chance

21965

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1006

706

Will the Trump Class Battleship be built or will the US Navy determine it is wasteful and unnecessary for modern warfare

Dec 24, 2:37 AMDec 24, 2:34 AM

20%chance

13239

OptionVotes

YES

NO

200

50

Which European countries will deploy naval vessels to the Pacific in 2026 and/or 2027?

Jan 13, 4:07 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2103

OptionProbability

Russia

UK

France

Germany

Netherlands

Italy

Spain

Denmark

Turkey

Portugal

Norway

Belgium

Greece

Poland

100

100

100

76

72

71

50

50

50

43

36

34

31

24

During his 2nd term, will the US name a navy ship after Donald J. Trump?

Aug 24, 2:17 AMJan 20, 11:59 PM

25.97%chance

485

OptionVotes

YES

NO

169

59

Will "Explaining British Naval Dominance During the..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 18, 12:40 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

18.96%chance

252

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1052

732

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