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Prediction markets for NAV

Will Navier-Stokes be solved with the help of Google or Alphabet scientists by the end of 2027?

Sep 24, 1:58 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.51%chance

12066240

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15396

10413

Will Iran sink a US Navy ship before 2030?

Jun 23, 3:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.54%chance

7513604

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5637

2818

Will the Navier-Stokes problem be solved by 2030?

Jan 2, 9:09 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

30%chance

6812352

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1041

874

Will Navier-Stokes be considered solved on June 3th 2027?

Jun 4, 5:12 AMJun 3, 11:59 PM

16.38%chance

409891

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2260

443

Will Yulia Navalnaya be leader of Russia? 🇷🇺🎤👩🏼‍🦰

Feb 19, 5:47 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3.78%chance

212485

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2171

895

Will the US Navy commission a new battleship by the end of 2028?

Feb 27, 10:08 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

12.73%chance

151230

OptionVotes

YES

NO

262

38

Will the People's Liberation Army Navy lose at least one surface vessel before 2030?

Jun 10, 2:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56.51%chance

211148

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1140

877

Does a smooth Navier-Stokes solution always exist?

Sep 8, 8:10 AMDec 31, 12:00 PM

13.39%chance

26972

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1426

884

P(Aliens) - Are the 2020-2022 Pentagon UFO Navy videos evidence of human-level or above intelligent life in the Milky Way?

Dec 12, 11:45 PMDec 1, 11:59 PM

20.13%chance

21965

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1006

706

Will Chinese naval units outclass American naval units in direct combat?

May 4, 2:44 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

32.67%chance

11154

OptionVotes

YES

NO

220

169

[Predict the year] Guantanamo Bay Naval Station ceases to operate as a detention facility

Apr 1, 9:46 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

6107

OptionProbability

2032-2033

2029-2030

2030-2031

2031-2032

2025-2026

2026-2027

2027-2028

2028-2029

2049-2050

2050-2051

2051-2052

2033-2034

2034-2035

2035-2036

2036-2037

2037-2038

2038-2039

2039-2040

2040-2041

2041-2042

2042-2043

2043-2044

2044-2045

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2052-2053

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2061-2062

2062-2063

2063-2064

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2065-2066

2066-2067

2067-2068

2068-2069

2069-2070

2070-2071

2071-2072

2072-2073

2073-2074

2024-2025

29

7

7

7

3

3

3

3

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

Will "Explaining British Naval Dominance During the..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 18, 12:40 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

18.96%chance

252

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1052

732

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