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Top stories

Canada Selects Germany's ThyssenKrupp and South Korea's Hanwha for C$43.4 Billion Submarine Contract to Build Up to 12 Vessels for Arctic Protection

Canada Selects Germany's ThyssenKrupp and South Korea's Hanwha for C$43.4 Billion Submarine Contract to Build Up to 12 Vessels for Arctic Protection

Authors

7

8 months ago

Prediction markets for Naval Group

Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before 2030?

Nov 17, 6:56 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

40%chance

7210550

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1074

931

Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2026?

Dec 10, 3:41 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

9.5%chance

839342

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8763

5599

Which landmarks or major infrastructure will suffer a military or terrorist attack before the end of 2030? [ADD ANSWERS]

Apr 10, 10:28 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

403737

OptionProbability

Kerch Bridge (Crimea)

The Kremlin (Moscow, Russia)

Yamal-Europe Pipeline

Belo Monte Dam (Brazil)

Panama Canal (Panama)

Guri Dam (Venezuela)

Itaipu Dam (Brazil and Paraguay)

Suez Canal (Egypt)

Vatican City

Xiluodu Dam (China)

Baihetan Dam (China)

Three Gorges Dam (China)

The Great Sphinx of Giza (Egypt)

Golden Gate Bridge (United States)

Statue of Liberty (US)

The Empire State Building (US)

The Louvre (Paris, France)

Channel Tunnel (UK and France)

Hoover Dam (US)

Port of Houston (US)

The Holland Tunnel (The tunnel under the Hudson River) (NYC to NJ, US)

World Trade Center (New York, US)

Eiffel Tower (Paris, France)

99

44

35

26

25

25

24

21

21

19

17

17

16

12

12

12

12

11

10

10

10

10

10

Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2028?

Dec 10, 3:42 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

38.9%chance

312681

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1071

854

Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2027?

Dec 10, 3:42 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

26.53%chance

341502

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1173

922

Which country will the Chagos Islands belong to on 31 December 2049?

Feb 7, 9:41 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

91468

OptionProbability

Mauritius

United Kingdom

United States

A new independent "Chagos Islands" country or countries

They will be underwater / won't exist

Other

China

Maldives

47

26

10

4

4

4

3

2

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