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Top stories

Trump Overhauls Pentagon Brass as Caudle Becomes Navy’s Top Officer

Executive Orders

US Gov Appointments

Trump Overhauls Pentagon Brass as Caudle Becomes Navy’s Top Officer

Authors

5

10 months ago

Prediction markets for Naval Operations

Will the US invade Iran before the end of 2026?

Jan 1, 5:39 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

12.96%chance

21274943

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13130

2376

Will the US and Iran be at war on January 1st, 2027?

Feb 28, 4:48 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

13.56%chance

4611773

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2525

396

If Russia starts a war against a Baltic state, will the US military engage in combat against the Russian military?

May 20, 7:33 AMJan 27, 10:59 PM

44.05%chance

589686

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1127

887

Will the US invade Iran's Kharg Island by the end of 2026?

Mar 11, 4:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12%chance

957703

OptionVotes

YES

NO

271

37

Iran directly attacks U.S. in 2026?

Feb 28, 7:32 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

465422

OptionProbability

Military Installation or Static Deployment

Mobile Military Asset (Naval or Air)

Diplomatic Mission

Homeland / Sovereign Territory

No Direct Attack in 2026

100

100

43

14

0

100 military deaths in a conflict between Israel and Turkey before 2030?

Mar 5, 3:30 PMJan 1, 3:29 PM

15.23%chance

74600

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2359

424

Will Iran retaliate against the US naval blockade by July 1 2026?

Apr 14, 5:37 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

5.79%chance

271119

OptionVotes

YES

NO

264

5

Confirmed overflight of US Military aircraft over Cuba in 2026

Jan 13, 3:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

85.02%chance

131010

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1328

904

Will another country support Venezuela militarily?

Jan 5, 4:33 PMDec 31, 4:30 PM

23.22%chance

12866

OptionVotes

YES

NO

182

55

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.59%chance

12744

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1031

884

[Predict the year] Guantanamo Bay Naval Station ceases to operate as a detention facility

Apr 1, 9:46 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

6107

OptionProbability

2032-2033

2029-2030

2030-2031

2031-2032

2025-2026

2026-2027

2027-2028

2028-2029

2049-2050

2050-2051

2051-2052

2033-2034

2034-2035

2035-2036

2036-2037

2037-2038

2038-2039

2039-2040

2040-2041

2041-2042

2042-2043

2043-2044

2044-2045

2045-2046

2046-2047

2047-2048

2048-2049

2052-2053

2053-2054

2054-2055

2055-2056

2056-2057

2057-2058

2058-2059

2059-2060

2060-2061

2061-2062

2062-2063

2063-2064

2064-2065

2065-2066

2066-2067

2067-2068

2068-2069

2069-2070

2070-2071

2071-2072

2072-2073

2073-2074

2024-2025

29

7

7

7

3

3

3

3

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

A listening station on Kerguelen Island? (Revealed before 2030)

Sep 12, 8:42 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

44.13%chance

325

OptionVotes

YES

NO

95

86

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