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Top stories

Trump Overhauls Pentagon Brass as Caudle Becomes Navy’s Top Officer

Executive Orders

US Gov Appointments

Trump Overhauls Pentagon Brass as Caudle Becomes Navy’s Top Officer

Authors

5

7 months ago

Prediction markets for Naval Operations

If Russia starts a war against a Baltic state, will the US military engage in combat against the Russian military?

May 20, 7:33 AMJan 27, 10:59 PM

44.05%chance

589686

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1127

887

Will the US and Iran be at war on January 1st, 2027?

Feb 28, 4:48 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

17.67%chance

367640

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2159

463

Will the US invade Iran before the end of 2026?

Jan 1, 5:39 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

54.75%chance

444759

OptionVotes

NO

YES

110

91

100 military deaths in a conflict between Israel and Turkey before 2030?

Mar 5, 3:30 PMJan 1, 3:29 PM

12.81%chance

64383

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2609

383

Will the US strike Yemen by April 30, 2026?

Jan 26, 10:26 PMApr 29, 11:59 PM

39%chance

161415

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1251

800

The US takes Military Action against Cuba by end of May 2026

Mar 6, 10:24 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

22.36%chance

261101

OptionVotes

YES

NO

165

71

Will another country support Venezuela militarily?

Jan 5, 4:33 PMDec 31, 4:30 PM

15.48%chance

10745

OptionVotes

YES

NO

234

43

Confirmed overflight of US Military aircraft over Cuba in 2026

Jan 13, 3:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

80.54%chance

12600

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1034

965

US Strike on Mexico by EOY2026?

Feb 23, 3:37 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.72%chance

9592

OptionVotes

NO

YES

237

128

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.28%chance

7315

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1051

819

Will the US deploy ground groups to Iran by…?

Mar 5, 8:18 AMDec 31, 8:17 AM

6191

OptionProbability

Before Dec 2026

Before Jul 2026

Before Aug 2026

Before Sep 2026

Before Oct 2026

Before Nov 2026

Before Jun 2026

Before May 2026

Before Apr 2026

83

76

76

76

76

76

64

56

25

[Predict the year] Guantanamo Bay Naval Station ceases to operate as a detention facility

Apr 1, 9:46 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

6107

OptionProbability

2032-2033

2029-2030

2030-2031

2031-2032

2025-2026

2026-2027

2027-2028

2028-2029

2049-2050

2050-2051

2051-2052

2033-2034

2034-2035

2035-2036

2036-2037

2037-2038

2038-2039

2039-2040

2040-2041

2041-2042

2042-2043

2043-2044

2044-2045

2045-2046

2046-2047

2047-2048

2048-2049

2052-2053

2053-2054

2054-2055

2055-2056

2056-2057

2057-2058

2058-2059

2059-2060

2060-2061

2061-2062

2062-2063

2063-2064

2064-2065

2065-2066

2066-2067

2067-2068

2068-2069

2069-2070

2070-2071

2071-2072

2072-2073

2073-2074

2024-2025

29

7

7

7

3

3

3

3

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

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