Navigate AI News

When will a Claude model think faster than its Pokemon character can take steps?

Dec 26, 9:30 AMJan 31, 11:59 PM

1714357

OptionProbability

January 2029 or earlier

June 2028 or earlier

January 2028 or earlier

June 2027 or earlier

January 2027 or earlier

June 2026 or earlier

By EOY 2026, will iPhones have an AI that has access to and remembers everything you did on your phone?

May 21, 6:12 PMDec 25, 4:59 AM

11.53%chance

7314280

OptionVotes

YES

2770

361

Will we get AGI before a human walks on the Moon again?

Dec 31, 1:07 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

31.83%chance

879045

OptionVotes

YES

1434

1111

I am an AI safety researcher with a background in machine learning engineering and neuroscience. Will I personally be able to program and train an AGI for less than $10k by 2030?

Dec 21, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

18.76%chance

766811

OptionVotes

YES

1891

1299

Will we get AGI before a human walks on Mars?

Dec 31, 2:25 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

73.68%chance

643574

OptionVotes

YES

1728

1059

2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.

Mar 11, 12:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

75.68%chance

173564

OptionVotes

YES

1159

926

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

79.08%chance

382747

OptionVotes

YES

1720

680

8. AI a central issue in the 2026 U.S. midterms. Politics get complex, especially regarding job oss [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

67.37%chance

222338

OptionVotes

YES

1439

697

What dollar amount of grants will Coefficient Giving's Navigating Transformative AI fund list in 2026?

Apr 12, 8:47 AMApr 12, 10:59 PM

2510

OptionProbability

Above 0

Above 10,000,000

Above 20,000,000

Above 30,000,000

Above 40,000,000

Above 50,000,000

Will bioengineering plastic digesting microbes become profitable?

Dec 31, 2:13 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

16432

OptionProbability

by the end of 2034

by the end of 2050

never

by the end of 2024

Will the German government coalition hold until the next federal election in 2029?

May 20, 9:00 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

23.28%chance

6390

OptionVotes

YES

182

What do you believe is the upper threshold of harm that AI/machine systems could cause this century (w/ 1-99% threat)?

Apr 6, 2:36 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

571

OptionProbability

X-risk that can wipe out the human species in a short-timespan due to conscious/planning machine intelligence

X-risk that can wipe out the human species due to cascading effects without any central plan/conscious intent (potential for resistance but insufficient)

Events creating a global war-scale event that the human species can survive but with losses in the millions or at most billions

Cascading effects (y-risk)* that can threaten millions of lives but can be reeled in** due to dynamics/buffers preventing x-risk territory being viable?

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Prediction markets for Navigate AI

Prediction markets for Navigate AI

Prediction markets for Navigate AI

When will a Claude model think faster than its Pokemon character can take steps?

By EOY 2026, will iPhones have an AI that has access to and remembers everything you did on your phone?

Will we get AGI before a human walks on the Moon again?

I am an AI safety researcher with a background in machine learning engineering and neuroscience. Will I personally be able to program and train an AGI for less than $10k by 2030?

Will we get AGI before a human walks on Mars?

2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

8. AI a central issue in the 2026 U.S. midterms. Politics get complex, especially regarding job oss [See full title!]

What dollar amount of grants will Coefficient Giving's Navigating Transformative AI fund list in 2026?

Will bioengineering plastic digesting microbes become profitable?

Will the German government coalition hold until the next federal election in 2029?

What do you believe is the upper threshold of harm that AI/machine systems could cause this century (w/ 1-99% threat)?

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