Navigate AI News

When will a Claude model think faster than its Pokemon character can take steps?

Dec 26, 9:30 AMJan 31, 11:59 PM

1411132

OptionProbability

January 2029 or earlier

June 2028 or earlier

January 2028 or earlier

June 2027 or earlier

January 2027 or earlier

June 2026 or earlier

By EOY 2026, will iPhones have an AI that has access to and remembers everything you did on your phone?

May 21, 6:12 PMDec 25, 4:59 AM

31.26%chance

669220

OptionVotes

YES

1483

674

Will we get AGI before a human walks on the Moon again?

Dec 31, 1:07 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

30.06%chance

838678

OptionVotes

YES

1403

1181

When will AIs be good at solving complex problems? (read description)

Mar 28, 9:19 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

118675

OptionProbability

2027

2026

2025

2024

I am an AI safety researcher with a background in machine learning engineering and neuroscience. Will I personally be able to program and train an AGI for less than $10k by 2030?

Dec 21, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

19.88%chance

726686

OptionVotes

YES

1792

1322

Will we get AGI before a human walks on Mars?

Dec 31, 2:25 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

73.91%chance

643562

OptionVotes

YES

1741

1054

2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.

Mar 11, 12:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

71.93%chance

163414

OptionVotes

YES

1009

979

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

82.06%chance

372697

OptionVotes

YES

1928

630

8. AI a central issue in the 2026 U.S. midterms. Politics get complex, especially regarding job oss [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.3%chance

171621

OptionVotes

YES

1036

968

Will AI be able to reach a human IRS representative before April 2026?

Feb 1, 4:35 PMApr 2, 6:59 AM

49.13%chance

101574

OptionVotes

YES

1018

983

Will bioengineering plastic digesting microbes become profitable?

Dec 31, 2:13 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

16432

OptionProbability

by the end of 2034

by the end of 2050

never

by the end of 2024

What do you believe is the upper threshold of harm that AI/machine systems could cause this century (w/ 1-99% threat)?

Apr 6, 2:36 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

571

OptionProbability

X-risk that can wipe out the human species in a short-timespan due to conscious/planning machine intelligence

X-risk that can wipe out the human species due to cascading effects without any central plan/conscious intent (potential for resistance but insufficient)

Events creating a global war-scale event that the human species can survive but with losses in the millions or at most billions

Cascading effects (y-risk)* that can threaten millions of lives but can be reeled in** due to dynamics/buffers preventing x-risk territory being viable?

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Prediction markets for Navigate AI

Prediction markets for Navigate AI

Prediction markets for Navigate AI

When will a Claude model think faster than its Pokemon character can take steps?

By EOY 2026, will iPhones have an AI that has access to and remembers everything you did on your phone?

Will we get AGI before a human walks on the Moon again?

When will AIs be good at solving complex problems? (read description)

I am an AI safety researcher with a background in machine learning engineering and neuroscience. Will I personally be able to program and train an AGI for less than $10k by 2030?

Will we get AGI before a human walks on Mars?

2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

8. AI a central issue in the 2026 U.S. midterms. Politics get complex, especially regarding job oss [See full title!]

Will AI be able to reach a human IRS representative before April 2026?

Will bioengineering plastic digesting microbes become profitable?

What do you believe is the upper threshold of harm that AI/machine systems could cause this century (w/ 1-99% threat)?

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