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Prediction markets for Navigate AI

When will a Claude model think faster than its Pokemon character can take steps?

Dec 26, 9:30 AMJan 31, 11:59 PM

1511432

OptionProbability

January 2029 or earlier

June 2028 or earlier

January 2028 or earlier

June 2027 or earlier

January 2027 or earlier

June 2026 or earlier

63

54

42

28

9

5

By EOY 2026, will iPhones have an AI that has access to and remembers everything you did on your phone?

May 21, 6:12 PMDec 25, 4:59 AM

24.48%chance

689722

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1756

569

Will we get AGI before a human walks on the Moon again?

Dec 31, 1:07 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

31.42%chance

848702

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1427

1127

I am an AI safety researcher with a background in machine learning engineering and neuroscience. Will I personally be able to program and train an AGI for less than $10k by 2030?

Dec 21, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

19.08%chance

746756

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1862

1305

Will we get AGI before a human walks on Mars?

Dec 31, 2:25 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

73.68%chance

643574

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1728

1059

2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.

Mar 11, 12:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

71.93%chance

163414

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1009

979

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

82.06%chance

372697

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1928

630

Will AI be able to reach a human IRS representative before April 2026?

Feb 1, 4:35 PMApr 2, 6:59 AM

45.75%chance

152252

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1089

918

8. AI a central issue in the 2026 U.S. midterms. Politics get complex, especially regarding job oss [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63%chance

202212

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1307

768

Will bioengineering plastic digesting microbes become profitable?

Dec 31, 2:13 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

16432

OptionProbability

by the end of 2034

by the end of 2050

never

by the end of 2024

56

35

7

2

When will Brave browser's Leo have agentic capacities?

Jan 21, 9:03 PMJan 21, 9:03 PM

2225

OptionProbability

After

Before Oct 2026

Before Jul 2026

Before Apr 2026

64

24

17

10

Conditional on a significant Amodei essay before March, will Yudkowsky write a long response before May?

Jan 21, 7:46 AMApr 30, 11:59 PM

17%chance

8186

OptionVotes

YES

NO

221

45

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