NEA News
Top stories
Prediction markets for NEA
Will we have near-complete automation of the world economy before 2035?
Aug 7, 6:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
23.8%chance
8838615
OptionVotes
1020
841
Will any frontier lab be near-fully automated before 2029?
May 10, 6:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
30.7%chance
298803
OptionVotes
15025
6656
Is there a vast complex of underground chambers and shafts extending nearly two kilometers under the pyramids?
Mar 23, 12:04 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
3.95%chance
218466
OptionVotes
4931
204
Did the IDF bury hundreds of Palestinian civilians in mass graves near Nasser and Al-Shifa hospitals?
Apr 24, 2:46 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
29%chance
756080
OptionVotes
2300
2259
Will GPT-5 make Manifold think very near-term AGI is more likely?
Mar 3, 1:41 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
7.48%chance
474616
OptionVotes
3122
158
Will we have near-complete automation of the world economy before 2030?
Aug 7, 6:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
12.32%chance
483391
OptionVotes
982
869
Will OpenAI allow near full access to the weights of their best-trained model to an external auditor by the end of 2030?
Jul 4, 10:14 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
45.68%chance
613182
OptionVotes
1595
589
Will nearly all of the Epstein files be released before 2027?
Nov 15, 9:07 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
19.39%chance
382060
OptionVotes
2075
701
Does the CKM matrix violate unitarity (near the 0.1% level)?
Aug 29, 2:26 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM
22.7%chance
251363
OptionVotes
987
953
Will the mean global near-surface temperature for 2023-2027 exceed 1.5℃ above the preindustrial average?
Jul 11, 3:56 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM
65.16%chance
161015
OptionVotes
1502
549
Will at least 1 out of 100 pedestrians wear an AR headset on a street near me in 2030?
Mar 30, 9:35 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM
47.81%chance
16269
OptionVotes
1023
968
Will an anime character modeled off of @repligate/janus be instantiated by nearcyan's Elysian labs by 2028
May 19, 11:30 PMDec 29, 4:59 AM
48.08%chance
4160
OptionVotes
1039
962