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Prediction markets for NEA
Will we have near-complete automation of the world economy before 2035?
Aug 7, 6:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
21%chance
8538513
OptionVotes
987
956
Is there a vast complex of underground chambers and shafts extending nearly two kilometers under the pyramids?
Mar 23, 12:04 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
3.95%chance
218466
OptionVotes
4931
204
Did the IDF bury hundreds of Palestinian civilians in mass graves near Nasser and Al-Shifa hospitals?
Apr 24, 2:46 PMJul 1, 3:59 AM
27.7%chance
705955
OptionVotes
2407
2217
Will GPT-5 make Manifold think very near-term AGI is more likely?
Mar 3, 1:41 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
11.29%chance
464116
OptionVotes
2622
208
Will OpenAI allow near full access to the weights of their best-trained model to an external auditor by the end of 2030?
Jul 4, 10:14 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
60%chance
602925
OptionVotes
1337
880
Will we have near-complete automation of the world economy before 2030?
Aug 7, 6:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
9.1%chance
442875
OptionVotes
1175
946
Will nearly all of the Epstein files be released before 2027?
Nov 15, 9:07 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
25%chance
371705
OptionVotes
1715
803
Does the CKM matrix violate unitarity (near the 0.1% level)?
Aug 29, 2:26 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM
22.72%chance
241362
OptionVotes
987
952
Colorado cavers confirm reopening "Cyclopean Cave" near Leadville by end-2026?
Nov 28, 6:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
39.4%chance
5904
OptionVotes
1240
806
Will the mean global near-surface temperature for 2023-2027 exceed 1.5℃ above the preindustrial average?
Jul 11, 3:56 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM
46.48%chance
13493
OptionVotes
1100
866
Will at least 1 out of 100 pedestrians wear an AR headset on a street near me in 2030?
Mar 30, 9:35 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM
47.81%chance
16269
OptionVotes
1023
968
Will an anime character modeled off of @repligate/janus be instantiated by nearcyan's Elysian labs by 2028
May 19, 11:30 PMDec 29, 4:59 AM
48.08%chance
4160
OptionVotes
1039
962