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Prediction markets for Near

Will we have near-complete automation of the world economy before 2035?

Aug 7, 6:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

21%chance

8538513

OptionVotes

NO

YES

987

956

Is there a vast complex of underground chambers and shafts extending nearly two kilometers under the pyramids?

Mar 23, 12:04 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3.95%chance

218466

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4931

204

Did the IDF bury hundreds of Palestinian civilians in mass graves near Nasser and Al-Shifa hospitals?

Apr 24, 2:46 PMJul 1, 3:59 AM

27.33%chance

695805

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2438

2205

Will GPT-5 make Manifold think very near-term AGI is more likely?

Mar 3, 1:41 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

8.7%chance

453736

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2930

174

Will OpenAI allow near full access to the weights of their best-trained model to an external auditor by the end of 2030?

Jul 4, 10:14 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

60%chance

602925

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1337

880

Will we have near-complete automation of the world economy before 2030?

Aug 7, 6:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

9.1%chance

442875

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1175

946

Manned mission to a near earth asteroid before landing on the Moon?

Apr 24, 2:18 PMOct 17, 9:59 PM

8.14%chance

332089

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2153

785

Does the CKM matrix violate unitarity (near the 0.1% level)?

Aug 29, 2:26 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

20.11%chance

241180

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1075

954

Will the mean global near-surface temperature for 2023-2027 exceed 1.5℃ above the preindustrial average?

Jul 11, 3:56 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

46.24%chance

13393

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1096

871

Will at least 1 out of 100 pedestrians wear an AR headset on a street near me in 2030?

Mar 30, 9:35 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

47.81%chance

16269

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1023

968

Will "Near-mode thinking on AI" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Aug 8, 1:15 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12%chance

1166

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1165

976

Will "I am worried about near-term non-LLM AI devel..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Aug 1, 2:15 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

122

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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