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Prediction markets for NEAR Foundation

Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before January 2026?

Oct 11, 6:04 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2.23%chance

8150691

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2754

22

Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before January 2027?

Oct 4, 11:38 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

59%chance

6814111

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1943

28

Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before 2030?

Oct 1, 5:01 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

79.67%chance

396500

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1617

91

4. Web agents will go mainstream, becoming the next major killer application in consumer AI.

Dec 27, 8:15 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

45.1%chance

295557

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1103

906

2. Scaling laws will be discovered and exploited in areas beyond text—in particular, in robotics and biology.

Dec 27, 8:12 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

75.4%chance

152818

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1751

571

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

82.06%chance

372697

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1928

630

When will I, the creator of this market, personally purchase a humanoid robot for under $20,000 USD?

Apr 20, 6:45 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

21531

OptionProbability

Before 2050

Before 2040

Before 2030

57

39

30

Will the wild population of the White Rhinoceros (Ceratotherium simum) become Extinct by 2100?

May 20, 2:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.34%chance

4305

OptionVotes

YES

NO

805

315

Will Charter Cities / Affinity Cities / Network States get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 29, 3:11 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

26.9%chance

10282

OptionVotes

YES

NO

409

180

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