NEAR Foundation News

Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before January 2027?

Oct 4, 11:38 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

69%chance

9822000

OptionVotes

YES

1962

Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before 2030?

Oct 1, 5:01 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

83%chance

5310298

OptionVotes

YES

1690

Will there be a massive internet outage before 2028?

Oct 21, 1:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44.53%chance

356596

OptionVotes

YES

11161

8960

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

79.08%chance

382747

OptionVotes

YES

1720

680

Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before January 2027?

Aug 1, 4:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

70%chance

9577

OptionVotes

YES

164

When will I, the creator of this market, personally purchase a humanoid robot for under $20,000 USD?

Apr 20, 6:45 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

21531

OptionProbability

Before 2050

Before 2040

Before 2030

Will Coefficient Giving (formerly Open Philanthropy) direct ≥$1.5B in grants in 2026?

Jul 21, 2:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

92.76%chance

12481

OptionVotes

YES

358

Will Wordpress partner with Project Glasswing by EOY2027?

Apr 7, 8:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

43%chance

6335

OptionVotes

YES

115

Will the wild population of the White Rhinoceros (Ceratotherium simum) become Extinct by 2100?

May 20, 2:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.34%chance

4305

OptionVotes

YES

805

315

Will Charter Cities / Affinity Cities / Network States get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 29, 3:11 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

26.9%chance

10282

OptionVotes

YES

409

180

Are Transformers “the last technology to do all of ML” (before AGI)?

Jan 24, 4:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10138

OptionProbability

No, a paradigm shift is needed (e.g. JEPA, etc.

No, but transformers are still key (the breakthoughs augment upon transformers)

Yes: transformers scale the best

No, but the new technology is still a “large foundation model” (non-transformer e.g. Mamba, Diffusion)

Will AI-assisted coding replace manual coding as the default teaching approach in programming schools by 2036?

Jan 20, 9:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

80.31%chance

5118

OptionVotes

YES

202

NEAR Foundation News

Prediction markets for NEAR Foundation

Prediction markets for NEAR Foundation

Prediction markets for NEAR Foundation

Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before January 2027?

Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before 2030?

Will there be a massive internet outage before 2028?

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before January 2027?

When will I, the creator of this market, personally purchase a humanoid robot for under $20,000 USD?

Will Coefficient Giving (formerly Open Philanthropy) direct ≥$1.5B in grants in 2026?

Will Wordpress partner with Project Glasswing by EOY2027?

Will the wild population of the White Rhinoceros (Ceratotherium simum) become Extinct by 2100?

Will Charter Cities / Affinity Cities / Network States get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Are Transformers “the last technology to do all of ML” (before AGI)?

Will AI-assisted coding replace manual coding as the default teaching approach in programming schools by 2036?

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