NEAR Foundation News

Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before January 2027?

Oct 4, 11:38 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

56.61%chance

7818030

OptionVotes

YES

1941

Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before 2030?

Oct 1, 5:01 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

80.82%chance

5110257

OptionVotes

YES

1646

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

82.06%chance

372697

OptionVotes

YES

1928

630

When will I, the creator of this market, personally purchase a humanoid robot for under $20,000 USD?

Apr 20, 6:45 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

21531

OptionProbability

Before 2050

Before 2040

Before 2030

Will the wild population of the White Rhinoceros (Ceratotherium simum) become Extinct by 2100?

May 20, 2:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.34%chance

4305

OptionVotes

YES

805

315

Will Charter Cities / Affinity Cities / Network States get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 29, 3:11 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

26.9%chance

10282

OptionVotes

YES

409

180

Are Transformers “the last technology to do all of ML” (before AGI)?

Jan 24, 4:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8127

OptionProbability

No, but transformers are still key (the breakthoughs augment upon transformers)

No, a paradigm shift is needed (e.g. JEPA, etc.

Yes: transformers scale the best

No, but the new technology is still a “large foundation model” (non-transformer e.g. Mamba, Diffusion)

Will AI-assisted coding replace manual coding as the default teaching approach in programming schools by 2036?

Jan 20, 9:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

82.21%chance

4115

OptionVotes

YES

215

Will the 2 World Trade Center be completed by EOY 2031?

Feb 26, 9:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35%chance

OptionVotes

YES

100

NEAR Foundation News

Prediction markets for NEAR Foundation

Prediction markets for NEAR Foundation

Prediction markets for NEAR Foundation

Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before January 2027?

Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before 2030?

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

When will I, the creator of this market, personally purchase a humanoid robot for under $20,000 USD?

Will the wild population of the White Rhinoceros (Ceratotherium simum) become Extinct by 2100?

Will Charter Cities / Affinity Cities / Network States get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Are Transformers “the last technology to do all of ML” (before AGI)?

Will AI-assisted coding replace manual coding as the default teaching approach in programming schools by 2036?

Will the 2 World Trade Center be completed by EOY 2031?

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