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Prediction markets for NEC

Will working be necessary in 2070?

May 11, 3:08 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

31.39%chance

300235339

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3273

1486

Does Nectome's preservation protocol work?

Mar 12, 6:22 AMJan 2, 6:11 AM

49.21%chance

3611603

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10159

9844

Full digitization (not necessarily emulation) of a human brain by 2035

Feb 14, 11:27 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

39.12%chance

8211323

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1433

1170

Real-time whole human brain emulation runs before end of 2038 (not necessarily an 'upload' of a specific human).

Mar 2, 7:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

50%chance

766998

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1469

732

Will Nectome have a legally separate nonprofit dedicated to storing patients by the end of the year?

Mar 18, 10:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

70.05%chance

121605

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1529

654

Will Nectome preserve at least one human by the end of 2027?

Mar 18, 10:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

75.04%chance

111236

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1734

577

Will Nectome perform 1,000+ brain preservations in a single calendar year before 2040?

Mar 18, 11:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25%chance

121171

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1732

577

Will Nectome still be operating in 2032?

Mar 18, 10:43 PMJan 2, 11:59 PM

73.7%chance

4857

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1674

597

Will Nectome have at least ten preserved humans by the end of 2027?

Apr 14, 6:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.9%chance

3650

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1495

669

Will at least 4 of Nectome's first 20 clients have significant damage?

Apr 15, 3:57 AMApr 15, 3:45 AM

66.75%chance

5507

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1106

740

Will Nectome preserve at least 100 humans by the end of 2030?

Apr 14, 6:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.26%chance

4449

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1449

690

Will a Nectome discount card sell for at least $60k before 2036?

Apr 15, 4:17 AMApr 15, 4:11 AM

49.64%chance

4300

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1007

993

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