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Prediction markets for NEE

Will sleep be needed to live and function by 2040?

Dec 31, 10:36 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

84%chance

1781110219

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1051

745

Is attention all you need? (transformers SOTA in 2027)

Nov 16, 7:02 PMJan 31, 11:30 PM

93.21%chance

14136071

OptionVotes

NO

YES

13497

1256

Is Attention All You Need?

Nov 16, 5:17 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

93.19%chance

606507

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3292

156

Will the FDA approved a drug that claims to reduce the number of hours of sleep you need by 2040?

Nov 12, 6:45 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

21.13%chance

41510

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1932

518

By Jan 2027, will AI independently run 3 successful companies that would've previously needed programmers?

Jun 16, 8:47 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

17.16%chance

221493

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1009

826

Will my children need to learn to drive?

Jul 3, 10:37 AMJun 30, 10:59 PM

29.94%chance

261330

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1005

971

Will there be a safe and sustainable way of avoiding the need for sleep by 2030?

Jul 18, 8:26 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

5.35%chance

10586

OptionVotes

YES

NO

359

127

Will cryonically-preserved brains remain preserved for as long as they need to be preserved?

Nov 25, 4:35 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

41.75%chance

23423

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1012

988

AGREE or DISAGREE: Prediction markets need oracles that aren’t mainstream media

Dec 15, 1:30 AMJan 22, 4:59 AM

45%chance

7326

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1106

905

will leopards need the ozempic after feasting on so many of the faces by 2029?

Feb 16, 6:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

56.66%chance

4260

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1143

875

Will Verda make better needles for the 2028 election?

Nov 6, 8:35 AMNov 9, 7:59 AM

42.96%chance

3250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1152

868

Will "We need a field of Reward Function Design" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 10, 5:42 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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