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Prediction markets for NEE

Will sleep be needed to live and function by 2040?

Dec 31, 10:36 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

84.77%chance

1821110350

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1044

785

Is attention all you need? (transformers SOTA in 2027)

Nov 16, 7:02 PMJan 31, 11:30 PM

96.36%chance

14343501

OptionVotes

NO

YES

19512

941

Is Attention All You Need?

Nov 16, 5:17 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

94.62%chance

628089

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3634

134

Will the FDA approved a drug that claims to reduce the number of hours of sleep you need by 2040?

Nov 12, 6:45 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

21.13%chance

41510

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1932

518

Will my children need to learn to drive?

Jul 3, 10:37 AMJun 30, 10:59 PM

29.94%chance

261330

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1005

971

Will cryonically-preserved brains remain preserved for as long as they need to be preserved?

Nov 25, 4:35 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

41.75%chance

23423

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1012

988

AGREE or DISAGREE: Prediction markets need oracles that aren’t mainstream media

Dec 15, 1:30 AMJan 22, 4:59 AM

45%chance

7326

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1106

905

will leopards need the ozempic after feasting on so many of the faces by 2029?

Feb 16, 6:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

56.66%chance

4260

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1143

875

Will Verda make better needles for the 2028 election?

Nov 6, 8:35 AMNov 9, 7:59 AM

42.96%chance

3250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1152

868

Will "Drone WMDs Don’t Need Any New Technology" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Jul 22, 10:46 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

18.74%chance

3124

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1050

741

Will "We need 3rd party Training-Run Assessments" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Jul 6, 1:34 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will "We need a field of Reward Function Design" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 10, 5:42 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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