NEO News

The shooter is alive when this market hits 100 traders

20-27 years old

Has a Reddit, Xitter, or Facebook account

US citizen

Male

Will the shooter of Charlie Kirk be apprehended alive by the end of September?

The shooter killed Charlie Kirk

White

Born in the United States

Lives (or has lived) in Utah

Native English speaker (L1)

used a bolt action rifle

has at least one sibling

at least ten questions in this market resolve YES (excluding questions about other question's resolutions) (excluding N/A)

Is the same person the FBI identified as the “person of interest”

had fired a weapon at least once in their life before shooting Charlie Kirk

disliked Charlie Kirk

Is named Tyler Robinson

“Extremely Online” (market owner’s subjective judgment)

The shooter is a member of domain Eukarya

Resided in the same state as the incident

Firearm used was otherwise lawfully owned under federal and state law

Is a registered voter

Did it on purpose

Skinny

Gamer

wrote reference to furry culture on bullet casing

The shooter is not a extraterrestrial alien

Motivated primarily by political ideology

ectomorph body type

Had bullets with engraved messages on them

He killed Kirk to stop the spread of hatred.

Acted alone (no accomplices)

Current or former LDS Church (mainline Mormon) member

Is left wing

Owns steam profile 76561198159427286

at least a quarter of the questions in this market resolve YES (excluding questions about other question's resolutions) (excluding N/A)

has expressed positive sentiment towards furries

Turns themselves in to the police / FBI

Hunter

Accident please N/A

has purchased furry-related media or items

Will plead guilty

Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, or Transgender

Avowed left-leaning ideology (broadly construed: Democrat, socialist, communist, Green all count)

Unemployed

iphone user

Has/had a partner named Lance Twiggs

is/was in a sexual relationship with a transwoman

Not a virgin

Purchased and played Furry Shades of Gay on Steam

Owns a car

Lives (or has lived) in the Provo–Orem metropolitan area

legally acquired the gun used to kill Charlie Kirk

has a furaffinity account

actually has an indecipherable ideology rooted deeply within internet culture that doesn’t clearly fall on either side.

Furry

Owns physical furry paraphernalia

Communicated with peers primarily through Discord

extra charges are filed against him based on evidence discovered on his digital devices

Strongly opposes zionism

Inconsistent, incoherent, or idiosyncratic political ideology

is/was in a sexual relationship with a furry transwoman

n/a

There is anecdotal evidence that they have a KiwiFarms account

Dies in prison

Has posted on r/toiletpaperusa

has used the word yiff in written communication

Conspired with an AI chatbot about this

Purposefully waited until Kirk mentioned shootings to fire

Any published writings (including blogs, tweets, etc.) supporting the July 2024 attempted assassination of Donald Trump

Is sentenced to death

had attended any event featuring kirk prior to the one at utah valley university

Kash Patel alludes to his sexual deviancy

Has at least US$5.000 of credit card debt

was prescribed psychiatric medication

has vore kink

Anarchist (self-described; any "anarcho-" label counts)

Went to furry events

cross-dresser

Will kill again (including suicide)

Wrote a manifesto before the shooting

JD Vance alludes to his sexual deviancy

Has a Bluesky account

Elon Musk alludes to his sexual deviancy

White cis-hetero Christian man

Any published writings (including blogs, tweets, etc.) supporting Luigi Mangione

student at any university

Owns a fursuit

is/was in a sexual relationship with a furry

Posted about Charlie Kirk on social media before the shooting

Brony or a fan of My Little Pony

Radical Centrist/JREG fan

Will be convicted by EOY 2025

Has Reddit account with 10k+ karma

Former or current Charlie Kirk fan

Has ADHD

psychedelics user

at least half of the questions in this market resolve YES (excluding questions about other question's resolutions) (excluding N/A)

Contact with CVLT/764/similar

made online adult/sexual content (e.g. onlyfans)

There is a broad consensus that they have a KiwiFarms account

Was on an FBI watchlist

6 ft tall

Had diagnosed mental illness

Will be convicted by EOY 2026

J.K. Rowling alludes to his sexual deviancy

Transgender

Involved in Israel/Palestine activism on either side

Incel

Fan fiction author

Femboy

History of illegal drug addiction

Escapes carceral detention

Was awarded a medal or award for marksmanship at any given point in time

History of domestic violence

has significant student load debt

Owned the firearm used

Any documented connection to O9A (Order of Nine Angles, esoteric right-accelerationst group)

Shooting was motivated by gun legislation in some way

Avowed right-leaning ideology (broadly construed: Republican, MAGA, right-libertarian, neo-Nazi, monarchist all count)

Left-handed

Motivated by personal grudge rather than politics (e.g. sexual jealousy or other personal-life motive)

All questions in this market are resolved before 2026

Had felony conviction previously

Current or former Calvary Chapel or other Pentecostal church member

groyper

Is right wing

Current or previous student at University of Utah

is Mossad

Was a student at UVU

Dead, as of October 10th (or earlier)

Accelerationist (any subtype)

Wanted to create pretext for violence against leftists

Has Twitter account with more than 2000 tweets

White Nationalist

The shooter will read "If Anyone Builds It..." (either while on the run or in custody) and likes the book

Current or former Roman Catholic

Involved in Effective Altruism

Was motivated by the Trump Epstein cover up?

Has a parent who drives for Uber

decel

Will get killed by law enforcement

Was a fan of Charlie Kirk

The shooter is a professional hitman, who does not care much about politics or ideology

Age >= 40 (on the day of the shooting)

Used a handgun

Ex-military

Has a PhD

Has a Manifold account

Muslim

Veteran

History of alcoholism

A time traveller trying to avoid the worst

Will share their first name with a famous video game character

Participates in this market

Teenager

Has a master's degree

Will be apprehended at McDonald's, like Luigi Mangione.

Female Ninja Type Sniper

Is or was a computer science student

is in fact three racoons dressed in a trenchcoat

Ex law enforcement

Married

Parent

Manifold assists with his capture

Meant to hit an apple on Charlie Kirk's head

Had a wikipedia page prior to 9/10/2025

Not arrested before EOY 2025

Fled the country after the shooting

Personally knew Charlie Kirk

Enjoys diplomatic immunity

Indian national

The shooter was an AI or an android controlled by AI

Iranian national

Registered Democrat

used telekinesis to correct the bullet's trajectory

The shooter is a member of domain Bacteria

Not arrested as of midnight EST 9/14

Will be apprehended at a McDonald's

Bond will be a man

Gunplay

Bond drives a car

On screen fatalities

London will appear on screen

Urban scene

Bond wears a suit/tuxedo

Car chase scene

Bond tells ≥1 joke

A vessel is shown on screen containing any of the following: ketchup, mustard, wasabi, soy sauce, hot sauce, beer, wine, whiskey, cologne, or sulfuric acid.

A named character speaks in a language other than English

Bond introduces himself as "Bond, James Bond"

Bond drinks a martini

Female and/or BIPOC director and/or producer

Opening action sequence

The Tower of London, Big Ben, Buckingham Palace, Wembley, or Heathrow appears on screen.

Gun Barrel Sequence

Bond will attend a gala, soirée, ball, banquet, masquerade, black-tie event, cocktail party, fundraiser, awards ceremony, premiere, reception, or a charity auction.

Sex scene

World capital other than London appears on screen

Hacking electronics of some form

Q appears

Runtime of at least 2 hours/120 minutes.

Bond solves ≥ 1 problem non-violently

Bond uses explosives

The plot will be predominantly set in present day

Bond disarms someone with a melee weapon using martial arts

The main theme song will be sung by a female

The film features a scene at a UNESCO World Heritage Site.

Fatal-if-missed aerial jump

A Bird (Avian) Will Appear Onscreen for >2 Seconds

Bond will shoot an inanimate object on purpose.

Asia will appear on screen

Someone goes through a pane of glass

A named character is a double (or triple, etc.) agent

It will feature ≥1 actor that was part of No Time to Die

It will gross more worldwide than No Time to Die ($774M)

The villain will use or work in the field of artificial intelligence.

"King" or "Queen" of England mentioned

Bond is on vacation (is shown somewhere for enjoyment, without purpose for his mission)

Someone in the movie says the title

@HenriThunberg enjoys the film

The villain is played by an actor who had a lead or recurring role on a prestigious television series that aired on either AMC or HBO.

South America, Africa, or Australia will appear on screen

The words "James Bond will return" appear on screen during or after the credits.

Bond rides a motorcycle

A single large explosion occurs on screen at the same time as Bond, and he doesn't look at it

>=85 on Tomatometer 1 month after US release

Critics will say it's a return to classic bond

A sniper rifle is fired

At least a portion filmed in Canada

Blue-eyed Bond

There will be a scene with wagering, gambling or betting

Bond wields a Walther PPK

Interracial sex scene

Pegasus, Phoenix, Griffin, Unicorn, Kraken, Minotaur, Medusa, Cyclops, Sphinx, Kitsune, Chimera, or Thunderbird (any visual representation)

Jungle / forest scene

M will be played by Ralph Fiennes

Bond flys an aircraft

James Bond disobeys orders from MI6 or the British government

Bond attends a soccer match, cricket game, rugby match, boxing/MMA fight, tennis match, e-sport event, the Olympics, a carnival or fair, the opera, or a horse race.

Casino game scene

>= 7.0 IMDB rating 1 year after release

Bond parachutes

It passes the Bechdel test (two named women talk the each other about anything besides a man)

Bond wears shorts

Bond pays for something by leaving money on a table and walking off without the recipient of the money present

>=7.5 on IMDB 1 month after US release

Arctic scene

Someone uses a euphemism to order a killing

Bond gets slapped

Prison/jail scene

A jet ski or snowmobile gets airborne

Black market trafficking

Someone climbs around on the outside of a building

Released in 2028

Skydiving

The main character will order a “Vodka Martini, shaken, not stirred” using that exact phrase.

Bond licks something

Bond and a pond shown on screen together

Main villain has a visible physical defect (scar, handicap, missing limb, ...)

someone combs or brushes their hair (or the hair of another person)

Bond in bondage (not necessarily sexual)

Bond slaps someone

A scene shows James Bond naked

Actor who plays Bond at least 6' (183 cm) tall

Death of a Bond love interest

James Bond talks to a woman while playing a card game.

A Gulf kingdom will appear on screen (e.g. Dubai)

Bond puts something phallic-shaped in his mouth

Bond is violent toward a woman (e.g. painful pulling, slap, throat grip...)

There will be a voiced character that is an AI

Bond rides a bicycle

Torture

Bond receives a gunshot wound

A visible countdown clock, which if it reaches zero something bad happens

Wilhelm scream

The title will refer to life and/or death

@brunoparga correctly guesses a pun beforehand

Bond plays craps, roulette, or blackjack

Bond drives a boat

A safe is cracked (any means possible)

Someone is shot with a tranquilizer dart or other nonlethal incapacitating projectile (getting wounded with a potentially lethal weapon doesn't count)

James Bond plays poker

Bond commits arson

Cryptocurrency is referenced

Oral sex

Bond smokes a cigarette/cigar

Tom Hardy, Cillian Murphy, or Zendaya appear on screen

Martini and a bikini shown on screen at the same time

Terrorists

US premier date is moved forward at least once (has to be numbered date, "summer 2026" doesn't count)

Someone carries a gun disassembled in a nondescript case

Someone speaks a verbal password phrase to verify their identity, gain access to a location, etc.

Actor who plays Bond is a US citizen

A pandemic or biological warfare will be a central plot

Desert scene

Nazis (neo- counts)

The ending pitches a next movie (continued story, introduction of villain, venegance, ...)

Ski chase scene

Drug use

Someone/something is x-rayed

Thunderstorm

Dessert scene

An actor who previous played a Bond villain appears (as either a new or recurring character)

President of the United States is mentioned

IF the main villain has a pet that plays a significant role in the plot, this pet is a horse...

Robots

Bond throws food, darts, or a Molotov cocktail

It refers to the transition between two British monarchs (Elizabeth, Charles and/or others)

Bond has facial hair

Bond will have a hot, young, American sidekick

Theme song will be performed by a band (more than one artist. Duran Duran did it, so there is precedent.)

There will be a promotional event in Fortnite

Bond wears a mask

Sharks

Cocaine or caviar appears on screen

James Bond plays baccarat

Scene with Bond wearing a hat and sunglasses

Bond complains about the quality of an alcoholic beverage

Bond plays golf, tennis, or croquet

Bond will be in a submarine

Bond goes to space

Bond is LQBTQ+

Bond rides an animal

James games (Bond plays any video game, table top board game, or role-playing game) *chess counts, casino games don't

Rolex, Aston Martin, Bollinger Champaign product placements (all three)

Main villain speaks Russian on screen

Bond has a disability

Bond claims to have retired / quit from the world of espionage

Mexico is shown on screen

Moscow, Kyiv, or Paris shown on screen

Jetpack

The movie will be set during the Cold War (1947-1991)

A previous Bond actor appears (as either a new or recurring character)

Trans character - explicity stated they are trans, no ambiguity (must be on screen for min. 7 seconds and say at least 3 words)

An EMP device plays a central role.

Climate change/global warming is explicitly mentioned

At least one named character below 18 years old

Canada is shown on screen

Orgy

Will feature something that can turn invisible

Someone asks for payment in "small, unmarked bills" or "negotiable bearer bonds" (wording need not be exact)

Underwater combat

The word "fuck" is said more than once.

With all this speculation about which kinds of sex acts will be shown, I'm surprised nobody has said it yet, so I'll say it: 𝕓𝕠𝕟𝕕𝕒𝕘𝕖

Bond beds a "lady of the night" (ie. He fucks a prostitute)

The main villain has a pet that plays a significant role in the plot.

Bond is blond

Features a shot with someone lowering a newspaper, magazine or book, revealing they had been surreptitiously spying on someone

Someone sees something incredible, and implicitly ascribes it to alcohol (traditionally, by looking at the bottle)

A pinball machine will appear.

Pirates

Theme song is performed by Taylor Swift

Assplay

Bond plays Russian roulette

Emilia Clarke portrays a character

Bond won't be Caucasian

A hamburger appears on screen

Bond uses a VR headset

Bond has a neck tattoo

Nuclear explosion

Someone uses the word "clip" to refer to a magazine

Satanism

Aaron Taylor-Johnson plays Bond

Revealed that "James Bond" has always been a code name.

fight featuring at least one of: viper, mongoose, someone with one of those as their code name

It will be described as featuring AI, such as claims that is uses “AI actors”, as reported by entertainment media.

Gay sex scene

ChatGPT is referenced by any character

Party and play (PnP), also known as chemsex, scene

Bond has a mustache (no other facial hair)

A character has the codename "Fat Rascal"

Theme song is performed by The Weeknd

San Francisco is shown on screen

Pegging

Another character coincidentally has the first name "James" or surname "Bond" (or both)

Horse cock on screen (flaccid)

Bond consumes more than 1.5 loads of jizz

A clocks shows the time 4:20

Feature Nightcore music

Supernatural entities

Prediction markets, origami, or the word "manifold" appear in the movie.

There will be a character codenamed "Fat Rascal" and they will be played by an American

Bond uses chopsticks

Released in 2026

Desert dessert scene (e.g. eating an ice cream in the Sahara)

Any character says the word "anime"

Vampires

Bond vapes

The main character will order a “café mocha, double double” using that exact phrase.

Bond dies

The fourth wall is broken

Scat play

Bond does depraved sexual acts for money (e.g., bukakke, public gang bangs, period play, etc.)

Contains a joke or indirect reference to the "last night I Bond Burgered your sister" meme

Horse cock on screen (erect)

Bond will say the line about snakes on a plane, but only as a metaphor (with snakes representing penises and the plane being his ass).

The handkerchief code is a major plot element

James Bond will say, "I'm rational, rationalussy."

Bond is vegan

It will be directed by a woman

Bond plays League of Legends

Destiny appears on screen

Bond says, “Enough is enough! I have had it with these motherfucking snakes on this motherfucking plane!”

Dragons

Dinosaurs

It will be directed by Christopher Nolan

NO

NO

AI Doomers

Neo-Luddite

Just "Anti-AI people", no special name

Yuddite

Other

Safetyist

Effective Altruist

Butlerian Jihadist

Loomer

Luddite

Rationalist

YES

Other

No new name (remains New Administrative Capital or equivalent)

No new name (remains Cairo)

New Memphis (or equivalent)

Al Mustaqbal

Kemet

Masr

Al Salam

New Cairo (or equivalent)

2027 Onwards

Jul 2026 - Dec 2026

Nov 2025 - Dec 2025

YES

YES

NO

NO