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Prediction markets for NET Power

Will Commonwealth Fusion Systems (CFS) will demonstrate net energy gain (Q>1) in their SPARC reactor before 12/31/2025?

Aug 10, 1:47 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

5.71%chance

2229746

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3936

537

At least one of the most powerful neural nets at end of 2026 will be trained using 10^27 FLOPs

May 16, 8:00 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

83.52%chance

454256

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1764

571

A fusion power plant will generate a net 100 megawatt of electricity by the beginning of 2063

Mar 25, 3:44 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

73.32%chance

23863

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1100

945

Will I have a generally favorable opinion of Elon Musk on June 1, 2026?

Jun 6, 11:39 PMJun 2, 6:59 AM

33.23%chance

9663

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1417

706

At least one of the most powerful neural nets at end of 2030 will be trained using 10^27 FLOPs

May 16, 8:01 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

92.71%chance

9470

OptionVotes

NO

YES

700

137

Will a humanoid robot controlled by an end-to-end neural network juggle three balls for ten seconds before 2030?

Mar 14, 10:01 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

87.04%chance

12437

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1195

932

Will some piece of AI capabilities research done in 2023 or after be net-positive for AI alignment research?

Mar 5, 1:05 PMMar 5, 11:59 PM

81.46%chance

7404

OptionVotes

NO

YES

229

116

Tennis-like sport played on another planet or in space by end 2036

Oct 8, 6:25 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

45.15%chance

13328

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1031

945

☀️ 🏭 When will the US meet the goal of 2¢/kWh for utility-scale photovoltaics?

Dec 7, 3:52 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

10221

OptionProbability

2028-2030

2025-2027

Beyond 2030 (or never)

Before the end of 2024

38

26

21

15

Will wind power account for more than 25% of the EU’s electricity production by 2025?

Jul 2, 6:51 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

34.8%chance

7101

OptionVotes

YES

NO

130

96

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