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Prediction markets for NET Power

At least one of the most powerful neural nets at end of 2026 will be trained using 10^27 FLOPs

May 16, 8:00 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

83.52%chance

454256

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1764

571

Will the MISO Indiana annual average wholesale electricity price for calendar year 2027 exceed 52 USD per MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

32.79%chance

33501

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12321

8650

Will OMIE Spain 2028 annual average wholesale price exceed €65/MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

40.01%chance

53433

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12045

8363

Will MISO Indiana Hub 2028 day-ahead annual average exceed US$60/MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

28.58%chance

42706

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12128

9013

Will Nord Pool 2027 system price annual average exceed €45/MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

50.23%chance

51088

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10047

9953

Will Nord Pool 2028 system price annual average exceed €45/MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

52.02%chance

41084

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10005

9995

Will the OMIE Spain annual average wholesale electricity price for calendar year 2027 exceed 60 EUR per MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

50.35%chance

31051

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11051

8806

A fusion power plant will generate a net 100 megawatt of electricity by the beginning of 2063

Mar 25, 3:44 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

73.32%chance

23863

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1100

945

At least one of the most powerful neural nets at end of 2030 will be trained using 10^27 FLOPs

May 16, 8:01 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

92.71%chance

9470

OptionVotes

NO

YES

700

137

Will a humanoid robot controlled by an end-to-end neural network juggle three balls for ten seconds before 2030?

Mar 14, 10:01 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

87.04%chance

12437

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1195

932

Tennis-like sport played on another planet or in space by end 2036

Oct 8, 6:25 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

45.15%chance

13328

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1031

945

Will Ed Miliband become Chancellor of the Exchequer before 2030?

Feb 12, 6:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42%chance

865

OptionVotes

YES

NO

118

85

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