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Prediction markets for Network 10

Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?

Aug 28, 4:50 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

43%chance

8712384

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1151

869

Will the best public LLM at the end of 2025 solve more than 5 of the first 10 Project Euler problems published in 2026?

Oct 26, 10:09 PMFeb 2, 7:59 AM

75.11%chance

2811608

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1225

836

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.01%chance

175392

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9916

2845

5. Multiple serious efforts to put AI data centers in space will take shape.

Dec 27, 8:16 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

13.91%chance

283077

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2488

402

Will someone fail to hydrate/eat, dying as a result, because they could not perceive reality, their hunger, or their thirst, while using a social media network in the next 10 years?

Dec 6, 3:48 AMDec 6, 4:00 AM

39.3%chance

171036

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1097

848

Will data centres consume more than 10% of global electricity usage for the year 2030?

Mar 24, 5:16 PMDec 31, 12:00 PM

43.83%chance

161022

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1087

856

Will Bitcoin experience "mining gaps" before the first 365-day period where transaction fees are >1/2 of total block rewards?

Dec 18, 9:07 AMMar 3, 4:59 AM

13.36%chance

14938

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1277

916

Will brain organoid computing solve a problem which is infeasible using existing digital AI in the next 10 years?

Jan 10, 7:54 PMJan 17, 10:59 PM

29.93%chance

22556

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1013

928

Will Charter Cities / Affinity Cities / Network States get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 29, 3:11 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

26.9%chance

10282

OptionVotes

YES

NO

409

180

When will we have a KRANTZ capable system? (defined below)

Dec 10, 7:13 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

6229

OptionProbability

Within 12 months after Eliezer reviews my work.

2050

2100

2030

2040

2028

2029

2027

2026

2025

72

41

31

26

26

20

20

14

10

8

A "network city" will form with over 50,000 members in roughly, one location with a governance system run over a blockchain by 2030.

Feb 12, 5:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.5%chance

9202

OptionVotes

YES

NO

330

189

Will a new social media platform be the most popular worldwide by 2032?

Mar 9, 5:01 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

41%chance

12151

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1001

992

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