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Are LLMs capable of reaching AGI?

Oct 19, 6:00 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

51.62%chance

11836884

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14050

6693

Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?

Aug 28, 4:50 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

57.01%chance

9113224

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1152

868

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.51%chance

195543

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10062

2804

Will Bitcoin experience "mining gaps" before the first 365-day period where transaction fees are >1/2 of total block rewards?

Dec 18, 9:07 AMMar 3, 4:59 AM

13.48%chance

172458

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1266

918

Will data centres consume more than 10% of global electricity usage for the year 2030?

Mar 24, 5:16 PMDec 31, 12:00 PM

56.41%chance

181372

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1318

626

Will someone fail to hydrate/eat, dying as a result, because they could not perceive reality, their hunger, or their thirst, while using a social media network in the next 10 years?

Dec 6, 3:48 AMDec 6, 4:00 AM

39.3%chance

171036

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1097

848

Will brain organoid computing solve a problem which is infeasible using existing digital AI in the next 10 years?

Jan 10, 7:54 PMJan 17, 10:59 PM

23.46%chance

23806

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1178

923

Will Russia announce completion of an AI data center with >10,000 AI accelerators (GPUs/TPUs) before 2027?

Oct 29, 1:31 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

35.15%chance

3500

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1358

736

Will Charter Cities / Affinity Cities / Network States get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 29, 3:11 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

26.9%chance

10282

OptionVotes

YES

NO

409

180

Polymarket exceeds $10B monthly trading volume in Dec 2027?

Nov 20, 4:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.71%chance

5262

OptionVotes

YES

NO

126

79

Will a new social media platform be the most popular worldwide by 2032?

Mar 9, 5:01 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

43.33%chance

15191

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1041

938

"Will PARALLAX get 500 downloads by end of May 31, 2026?

Mar 17, 11:23 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

7.98%chance

125

OptionVotes

YES

NO

125

98

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