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Prediction markets for Network Token

When will a Claude model think faster than its Pokemon character can take steps?

Dec 26, 9:30 AMJan 31, 11:59 PM

1411132

OptionProbability

January 2029 or earlier

June 2028 or earlier

January 2028 or earlier

June 2027 or earlier

January 2027 or earlier

June 2026 or earlier

62

53

43

29

10

5

Will a clawdbot have been proven to have exfiltrated without help from its human to another host by end of February 2026

Feb 1, 4:55 PMMar 3, 11:59 PM

44%chance

312759

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1128

886

Will blockchain technology be used for storing at least 10% of global GDP by 2027?

Nov 15, 1:49 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

30%chance

10916

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1528

655

Will the first AGI be a transformer model?

Jan 1, 4:54 PMDec 31, 6:59 PM

46.35%chance

12885

OptionVotes

NO

YES

704

414

By what date will at least one SOTA reasoning model use neuralese?

Oct 10, 10:59 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

7373

OptionProbability

01.01.2030

01.07.2029

01.01.2029

01.07.2028

01.01.2028

01.07.2027

01.01.2027

01.07.2026

01.01.2026

87

76

66

57

54

50

38

22

5

By what date will all SOTA reasoning models use neuralese?

Oct 10, 11:00 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

3351

OptionProbability

01.01.2030

01.07.2029

01.01.2029

01.07.2028

01.01.2028

01.07.2027

01.01.2027

01.07.2026

01.01.2026

69

66

62

59

55

50

34

17

3

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