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Prediction markets for Network Token

Will Ethereum outperform Bitcoin over the next 30 days?

Mar 18, 3:39 PMApr 17, 3:38 PM

45.25%chance

3612331

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

91

When will a Claude model think faster than its Pokemon character can take steps?

Dec 26, 9:30 AMJan 31, 11:59 PM

1511432

OptionProbability

January 2029 or earlier

June 2028 or earlier

January 2028 or earlier

June 2027 or earlier

January 2027 or earlier

June 2026 or earlier

63

54

42

28

9

5

Will blockchain technology be used for storing at least 10% of global GDP by 2027?

Nov 15, 1:49 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

28.79%chance

12961

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1573

636

Will the first AGI be a transformer model?

Jan 1, 4:54 PMDec 31, 6:59 PM

44%chance

14952

OptionVotes

NO

YES

682

441

By what date will at least one SOTA reasoning model use neuralese?

Oct 10, 10:59 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

7373

OptionProbability

01.01.2030

01.07.2029

01.01.2029

01.07.2028

01.01.2028

01.07.2027

01.01.2027

01.07.2026

01.01.2026

87

76

66

57

54

50

38

22

0

By what date will all SOTA reasoning models use neuralese?

Oct 10, 11:00 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

3351

OptionProbability

01.01.2030

01.07.2029

01.01.2029

01.07.2028

01.01.2028

01.07.2027

01.01.2027

01.07.2026

01.01.2026

69

66

62

59

55

50

34

17

0

Will $MARVIN token reach $500K market cap by June 1, 2026?

Mar 8, 6:51 PMJun 1, 12:00 AM

12.74%chance

3165

OptionVotes

YES

NO

154

90

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