Neumann News

Which engineering breakthroughs will achieve widespread commercial and societal integration by 2050? [add responses]

Jun 12, 1:39 PMDec 1, 8:59 PM

27182508

OptionProbability

Gene Editing Therapies

Therapies to reverse cardiovascular diseases

Personalized medicine based on patient's genetic profile

Autonomous Drone Swarms Dominating Land and Air Combat

Regenerative Medicine

Brain-Computer Interfaces

Humanoid Robots in Service/Logistics Roles

Heat pumps and solar panels for heating homes

Solar panels with 40% efficiency

Bioprinting

Synthetic Meat Indistinguishable from Real Meat

Therapies to reverse neurodegenerative diseases

Transoceanic fully autonomous container crossing without onboard crew

Fully Autonomous Cargo Ships

Human-level AGI

Artificial Photosynthesis (10% efficiency in converting sunlight to chemical energy)

viable cloned organs using your own DNA as base (i.e. no autoimmune organ rejection)

Solid-state EV batteries ≥ 500 Wh/kg in mass-produced cars

Space-Based Manufacturing

A Specific ‘Longevity Drug’ or Defined Drug Combination that Extends Average Human Healthspan by at Least 10 Years

Desalination with Energy Consumption Below 1.5 kWh/m³

Seafloor Mining Robots

Cancer Vaccine Targeting Multiple Types of Cancer

Quantum Computing Applications

Lunar Bases

Non-invasive colon cancer screening that is equally or more effective than a Colonoscopy

Nanorobots for Precision Drug Delivery

Self-Healing Materials for Infrastructure

Advanced Exoskeletons for Everyday Use

Graphene semiconductor electronics

Male pattern baldness treatment that consistently turns Nowood 7 to Norwood 1 (no surgery/grafts)

Moon base

Major resurgence of lighter than air craft for shipping or consumer travel/leisure

Britain finishes HS2

Photonic computing

Commercial asteroid mining

Smart Contact Lenses with AR Capabilities

More than half of all commercial ships built between 2030-2050 have the option to supplement their power burn with wind power (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9R6ln7pr5QU)

Artificial Wombs for Human Gestation (from conception to birth)

Hypersonic commercial passenger travel

Datacenters in space

Joywire

Medication that adds 30 lbs+ muscle with no major negative health effects

Nuclear powered cargo ships

Room-Temperature Atmospheric-Pressure Superconductors

Fast travel across the globe

Commercial fusion power

AI that produces AAA-level video games via end-user prompts

Mars Base

Point-to-Point Suborbital Spaceflight (Regularly Scheduled Passenger Transport)

City-scale fully automated underground logistics networks

Nuclear microreactors that can be used anywhere

Biohybrid Robots with Living Muscle Tissue

Nuclear Thermal Rockets

Cryonics with Successful Revival

Universal Flu Vaccine (effictive against all current and future strains)

Food with bioengineered saturated fat that doesn't raise cholesterol

Commercial satellite to ground power transmission

Self-Actuating Metamaterials for Adaptive Structures in Buildings and Infrastructure

Changing the height of an adult at will

Von Neumann Probe

Orbital Habitats

Self-Replicating Fully-Automated Factories

Fusion Drives

Engineered Symbiotic Microorganism Implants for Human Physiological Augmentation

Human Mind Uploading

Space-to-Earth power stations

Space probes travelling at >=1% speed of light

Direct Cognitive Collaboration

Cell replacement therapy using synthetic cells

A skyhook space structure in LEO

Human sex change at chromosome level

Autonomous Flying Cars in Cities

Human Missions to Mars with Round-Trip Travel Time Under 6 Months

Changing a person's race at will

Room-Temperature Superconducting Transmission Lines in Urban Power Grids

Commercial cold fusion

Vacuum Airships

Time travel to the future

Space Elevator

Quantum Sensors Enabling Detection of Cancer Years Before Symptoms

Antimatter bombs

1% Dyson sphere coverage

Faster then Light Propulsion

Temporal Cloaking Device (Hiding Events in Time)

Time travel to the past

Reality Anchoring Device (Stabilizing Subjective Reality)

What proportion of John von Neumann clones aged 20 or older will identify as LGBTQ+?

Jun 18, 1:58 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

24.58%chance

4965814

OptionVotes

YES

972

970

Greatest Mathematician of all time

Aug 11, 11:37 PMJan 1, 1:00 AM

18831312

OptionProbability

Gauss

Archimedes

Euler

@121

Other

Von Neumann

Alexander Grothendieck

Newton

Kurt Gödel

David Hilbert

Augustin-Louis Cauchy

Pythagoras

Euclid (of Geometry)

Galois (died at 20 fighting for a girl he loved)

Erdos (on amphetamines)

Alonzo Chuch (lambda calculus)

Matt Damon (of Good Will Hunting)

Ramanujan

Poincare

Finkelstein (of the levi finkelstein conjecture)

Mandelbrot (The B in Benoit B Mandelbrot is Benoit B Mandelbrot)

Trick question; there are no mathematicians.

Idk, your mom seemed pretty good at multiplying last night

sixtynine, you filthy casuals

David A. Cox (Cox-Zucker machine)

The solver of the Riemann Hypothesis

Ludwig Wittgenstein

John Conway (group theory, among others)

the unknown ancient egyptian who invented zero

Descartes

Leibniz

Bourbaki

Laplace

@Mira

Georg Cantor

Frank Ramsey

Fermat

Emmy Noether

Ada Lovelace

Terry Tao

DottedCalculator

GPT8

Riemann

Claude Shannon

God

Alan Turing

Grigori Perelman

Olga Ladyzhenskaya

Weyl, Weyl

John Gabriel

Michael Atiyah

Will John von Neumann clones aged 20 or older be more likely to identify as LGBTQ+ than the general population?

Sep 18, 5:57 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

37.81%chance

152751

OptionVotes

YES

1156

793

Frontier science theorem discovery fully formalized in proof assistant before 2028?

May 23, 6:26 AMDec 31, 9:44 AM

22.82%chance

111221

OptionVotes

YES

1842

547

Will 20 or more clones of John von Neumann exist by 2100?

Feb 20, 7:22 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25%chance

151128

OptionVotes

YES

1065

276

Cloned historical figure born before 2036

Jun 1, 12:26 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

18.42%chance

17605

OptionVotes

YES

1413

874

Will we successfully deploy our own Von Neumann probes before we detect foreign Von Neumann probes?

Jan 29, 2:28 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

81.29%chance

20449

OptionVotes

YES

1212

919

By 2050, will any world leader have advocated for "utilitarian Von Neumann machines"?

Jun 19, 1:14 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

48.54%chance

7132

OptionVotes

YES

What will be the next major event for Flow?

Jan 23, 1:12 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM

553

OptionProbability

None of these by 2030

Bankruptcy

Purchase by another company

IPO

Will "Von Neumann's Fallacy and You" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 3, 10:19 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.33%chance

150

OptionVotes

YES

1050

992

Will John von Neumann's grave be exhumed (for his DNA) by EOY 2033?

Dec 25, 10:34 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

26.81%chance

340

OptionVotes

YES

110

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Which engineering breakthroughs will achieve widespread commercial and societal integration by 2050? [add responses]

What proportion of John von Neumann clones aged 20 or older will identify as LGBTQ+?

Greatest Mathematician of all time

Will John von Neumann clones aged 20 or older be more likely to identify as LGBTQ+ than the general population?

Frontier science theorem discovery fully formalized in proof assistant before 2028?

Will 20 or more clones of John von Neumann exist by 2100?

Cloned historical figure born before 2036

Will we successfully deploy our own Von Neumann probes before we detect foreign Von Neumann probes?

By 2050, will any world leader have advocated for "utilitarian Von Neumann machines"?

What will be the next major event for Flow?

Will "Von Neumann's Fallacy and You" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Will John von Neumann's grave be exhumed (for his DNA) by EOY 2033?

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