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Prediction markets for Neumann

What proportion of John von Neumann clones aged 20 or older will identify as LGBTQ+?

Jun 18, 1:58 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

24.58%chance

4965814

OptionVotes

NO

YES

972

970

Greatest Mathematician of all time

Aug 11, 11:37 PMJan 1, 1:00 AM

18831312

OptionProbability

Gauss

Archimedes

Euler

@121

Other

Von Neumann

Alexander Grothendieck

Newton

Kurt Gödel

David Hilbert

Augustin-Louis Cauchy

Pythagoras

Euclid (of Geometry)

Galois (died at 20 fighting for a girl he loved)

Erdos (on amphetamines)

Alonzo Chuch (lambda calculus)

Matt Damon (of Good Will Hunting)

Ramanujan

Poincare

Finkelstein (of the levi finkelstein conjecture)

Mandelbrot (The B in Benoit B Mandelbrot is Benoit B Mandelbrot)

Trick question; there are no mathematicians.

Idk, your mom seemed pretty good at multiplying last night

sixtynine, you filthy casuals

David A. Cox (Cox-Zucker machine)

The solver of the Riemann Hypothesis

Ludwig Wittgenstein

John Conway (group theory, among others)

the unknown ancient egyptian who invented zero

Descartes

Leibniz

Bourbaki

Laplace

@Mira

Georg Cantor

Frank Ramsey

Fermat

Emmy Noether

Ada Lovelace

.

p

Terry Tao

DottedCalculator

GPT8

Riemann

Claude Shannon

God

Alan Turing

Grigori Perelman

Olga Ladyzhenskaya

Weyl, Weyl

John Gabriel

Michael Atiyah

55

25

5

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will John von Neumann clones aged 20 or older be more likely to identify as LGBTQ+ than the general population?

Sep 18, 5:57 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

37.81%chance

152751

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1156

793

Frontier science theorem discovery fully formalized in proof assistant before 2028?

May 23, 6:26 AMDec 31, 9:44 AM

22.82%chance

111221

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1842

547

Will 20 or more clones of John von Neumann exist by 2100?

Feb 20, 7:22 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25%chance

151128

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1065

276

Will the first AI Superintelligence be installed on a classical computer, a quantum computer, or some other alternative?

Aug 20, 2:05 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

19747

OptionProbability

Classical Computer

Other

Quantum Computer

AI Superintelligence is very unlikely to be built, or is impossible.

70

15

13

1

Cloned historical figure born before 2036

Jun 1, 12:26 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

18.42%chance

17605

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1413

874

Will we successfully deploy our own Von Neumann probes before we detect foreign Von Neumann probes?

Jan 29, 2:28 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

81.29%chance

20449

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1212

919

Will a fully autonomous vehicle (Level 5) be commercially available to consumers by 2030?

Apr 17, 1:37 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57.45%chance

11422

OptionVotes

NO

YES

116

86

By 2050, will any world leader have advocated for "utilitarian Von Neumann machines"?

Jun 19, 1:14 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

48.54%chance

7132

OptionVotes

NO

YES

99

74

Will "Von Neumann's Fallacy and You" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 3, 10:19 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.33%chance

150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1050

992

Will John von Neumann's grave be exhumed (for his DNA) by EOY 2033?

Dec 25, 10:34 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

30.43%chance

230

OptionVotes

YES

NO

100

51

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