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Prediction markets for Neura

Will Neuralink successfully enable a blind person to see again using its technology by 2030?

Jan 21, 2:42 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

75.48%chance

18391468

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1890

239

Neural Nets will generate coherent 20-min films by the end of 2025 (less strict criteria market)

Jul 2, 8:07 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.7%chance

21477630

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4631

2534

Neural nets will out-perform researchers on peer review by end of 2025.

May 5, 5:47 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

73.36%chance

13239157

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1668

485

Will Elon Musk put a Neuralink chip in his brain before 2030?

Jan 30, 9:04 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

23.89%chance

26333107

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2999

2076

Neural Nets will generate coherent 20-min films by the end of 2025 that win film festival awards [See link to better qu]

Mar 28, 9:40 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.18%chance

10728934

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4039

1127

Neural Nets will generate at least 1 scientific breakthrough or novel theorem by the end of 2025

Mar 28, 10:32 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.2%chance

12320750

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1602

1265

Will Neuralink successfully enable a paralyzed person to walk again using its technology by 2030?

Jan 21, 2:41 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

63.44%chance

9415035

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1669

470

Storage devices with neural networks pre-loaded sold in major electronics retailers by end of 2035

Jan 5, 5:22 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

30.11%chance

197235

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15224

6573

Will Neuralink be available for people without a disability in the US by 2035?

Mar 21, 4:28 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

64.01%chance

652875

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1516

485

Will Neuralink be used for reparative therapy before the end of 2035?

Sep 26, 9:52 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

86.09%chance

131999

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2316

198

Will someone be able to play Super Smash Bros directly with the Neuralink as a controller by the end of 2034?

Mar 21, 7:58 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

78.85%chance

18992

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1018

634

Will Neuralink's PRIME study report any unanticipated adverse device reactions?

Jan 31, 8:39 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

60.61%chance

17461

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1173

596

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