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Prediction markets for NeurIPS

When will the average number of submissions to top AI conferences first decline over the previous year?

Aug 26, 7:05 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

46979

OptionProbability

2025

>2034

2024

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031-2034

Other

17

10

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

7. Major progress will be made on building AI systems that can themselves autonomously build better AI systems.

Dec 27, 8:18 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

73.96%chance

203037

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1685

593

By 2026, will I regret learning a bunch of math/physics as opposed to focusing more on AI?

Jan 2, 12:13 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

55.73%chance

181067

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1273

648

Will Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks (KAN) be used/studied in at least five orals at NeurIPS 2027?

May 2, 7:40 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

7.99%chance

11323

OptionVotes

YES

NO

339

29

Will I get into a "top" university for CS in US?

May 19, 5:30 AMMay 2, 5:12 AM

7277

OptionProbability

Yes

No

73

27

Will NeurIPS 2025 require bomb scanners to get through?

Dec 15, 12:45 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

18.48%chance

4110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

210

48

Will the "Attention Is All You Need" Paper be given the Test of Time Award in NeurIPS 2027?

Jul 23, 7:27 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

50%chance

2100

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Is "All You Need" All You Need"?

May 19, 6:31 AMDec 31, 7:29 AM

235

Will ACL continue to utilize ARR as the sole method of submission in 2025?

Jan 4, 4:55 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

66.74%chance

426

OptionVotes

NO

YES

136

92

Will Jose Luis Ricon attend a NeurIPS by EOY2028?

Dec 6, 7:33 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will "The nihilism of NeurIPS" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Dec 29, 11:15 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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