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Prediction markets for Neutral
If Elon Musk does something as a result of his AI angst by 2025, will Eliezer Yudkowsky judge it to be a positive or neutral initiative (as opposed to negative)?
Feb 26, 6:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
4.59%chance
17476866
OptionVotes
19402
2677
If @Celene takes estrogen, will she consider it to have a positive effect, neutral effect, or negative effect?
Jan 12, 4:42 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
74.75%chance
366585
OptionVotes
1117
948
OptionVotes
2485
402
Will a major country achieve complete carbon neutrality by 2040?
Jun 12, 6:04 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM
55.09%chance
321939
OptionVotes
1051
924
Will the UK’s National Grid be carbon neutral by 2030?
Aug 21, 9:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
13.7%chance
261480
OptionVotes
1304
916
Will the UK’s National Grid be carbon neutral by 2035?
Aug 22, 12:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
24.5%chance
151112
OptionVotes
1004
936
SOAI#6: “AI neutrality” emerges as a foreign policy doctrine as some nations cannot or fail to develop sovereign AI
Oct 9, 11:06 PMDec 13, 12:06 AM
23.19%chance
151016
OptionVotes
1820
549
Will a major country achieve complete carbon neutrality by 2040?
Jul 11, 7:58 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
52.83%chance
16892
OptionVotes
1153
827
Will any city of at least 100,000 people declare itself carbon neutral before 2035?
Feb 7, 7:41 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM
91.63%chance
12520
OptionVotes
1480
907
What percent of those taking rapamycin to slow aging will comment a positive or neutral review?
Sep 5, 10:30 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM
56.24%chance
14466
OptionVotes
1453
1085
OptionVotes
1077
949
OptionVotes
1147
943