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Prediction markets for New Businesses

1. Anthropic will go public. OpenAI will not.

Dec 28, 11:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

77.29%chance

6420347

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1846

542

Will Canada's "Online News Act" (bill C-18) be amended or repealed by 2027?

Aug 10, 3:59 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

17.74%chance

125325

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1818

107

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Nov 26, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

72.71%chance

332036

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1534

660

Will Nectome have a legally separate nonprofit dedicated to storing patients by the end of the year?

Mar 18, 10:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.76%chance

131705

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1327

754

Will Nectome perform 1,000+ brain preservations in a single calendar year before 2040?

Mar 18, 11:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25%chance

121171

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1732

577

Will Nestlé publicly apologize for its role in past human rights abuses by 2030?

Aug 7, 2:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.59%chance

12834

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1661

602

NYTimes changes default pronoun assumptions in English to "They" from "He/She"

Mar 14, 4:52 PMJun 2, 6:59 AM

65.28%chance

14330

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1002

978

Will the US ban businesses/merchants from receiving large crypto transfers from non-'KYC'ed self-hosted wallets?

Mar 24, 3:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.56%chance

14166

OptionVotes

YES

NO

999

996

There will be a new business vertical that uses prediction markets as a core feature by 2030

Sep 24, 3:33 PMOct 2, 6:59 AM

52.54%chance

215

OptionVotes

NO

YES

95

85

Will Saudi Aramco Emissions end at?

Mar 8, 9:04 PMMar 8, 10:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Below 90

90 - 99

100 - 109

110 - 119

120 - 130

Above 130

17

17

17

17

17

17

What month do you think that Barracuda 2.0 in Okeechobee Florida closes down as in out of business or sold?

Oct 6, 4:38 PMOct 6, 4:36 PM

00

OptionProbability

October

November

December

January

February

March

April

May

June

July

August

September

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

Will Apple Emissions end at?

Mar 8, 9:12 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Below 0.6

0.06 - 0.07

0.07 - 0.08

0.08 - 0.09

0.09 - 0.10

Above 0.10

17

17

17

17

17

17

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