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Prediction markets for New Businesses

Will Apple VP of Finance Alex Roman receive any legal penalty for “lying under oath"?

May 1, 10:11 AMJan 1, 10:04 AM

23.16%chance

232453

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1822

549

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Nov 26, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

74.89%chance

311936

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1629

626

Will Nectome have a legally separate nonprofit dedicated to storing patients by the end of the year?

Mar 18, 10:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66.13%chance

81337

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1397

716

Will there be a new AI Startup primarily focused on using AI models for computer control before the end of March?

Mar 4, 2:01 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

39.68%chance

141178

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1137

741

Will Nectome perform 1,000+ brain preservations in a single calendar year before 2040?

Mar 18, 11:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28.29%chance

6677

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1592

628

Will Nestlé publicly apologize for its role in past human rights abuses by 2030?

Aug 7, 2:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.74%chance

8545

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1401

714

MoistCr1TiKaL announces new major business venture by March 31, 2026?

Oct 20, 1:29 PMMar 30, 11:59 PM

7.74%chance

5435

OptionVotes

YES

NO

345

29

NYTimes changes default pronoun assumptions in English to "They" from "He/She"

Mar 14, 4:52 PMJun 2, 6:59 AM

68.6%chance

13280

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1079

952

Will the US ban businesses/merchants from receiving large crypto transfers from non-'KYC'ed self-hosted wallets?

Mar 24, 3:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.56%chance

14166

OptionVotes

YES

NO

999

996

There will be a new business vertical that uses prediction markets as a core feature by 2030

Sep 24, 3:33 PMOct 2, 6:59 AM

52.54%chance

215

OptionVotes

NO

YES

95

85

Will Apple Emissions end at?

Mar 8, 9:12 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Below 0.6

0.06 - 0.07

0.07 - 0.08

0.08 - 0.09

0.09 - 0.10

Above 0.10

17

17

17

17

17

17

Will Saudi Aramco Emissions end at?

Mar 8, 9:04 PMMar 8, 10:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Below 90

90 - 99

100 - 109

110 - 119

120 - 130

Above 130

17

17

17

17

17

17

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