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Prediction markets for New College

The Trump “J6” DC Election Interference Indictment (linked)

Sep 4, 3:06 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

97975

OptionProbability

Trump isn’t convicted of any of these charges

Conviction(s) in exactly 1 of the 4 charges.

Conviction(s) in exactly 2 of the 4 charges.

Conviction(s) in exactly 3 of the 4 charges.

Conviction(s) in all 4 of the charges.

98

1

1

1

1

What colleges will I be accepted to, given I apply?

Jul 10, 11:28 PMSep 1, 11:09 PM

313549

OptionProbability

Carnegie Mellon University

University of Illinois (note: i live in town and my dad is a professor)

UW Madison

University of Michigan

University of Southern California

Rice university (new addition)

Northwestern (new addition!)

Williams college (new addition!)

UCLA

Cornell (new addition!)

Stanford

University of chicago

Princeton

Harvey mudd college

MIT (new addition!)

100

100

100

61

43

42

40

38

36

24

17

12

0

0

0

Will there be an "EA university" or similar institution by 31 December 2027?

Aug 23, 4:28 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

14.9%chance

512833

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2059

657

Will the 2028 U.S. presidential election end with no candidate breaking the 270-vote barrier?

Nov 13, 2:32 AMNov 20, 6:59 AM

15.23%chance

91581

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2359

424

Will Trump attack Greenland in 2026?

Jan 7, 1:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.69%chance

341272

OptionVotes

YES

NO

602

17

Unemployment rate for new college grads increases in 2026?

Feb 17, 10:27 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

69.59%chance

251145

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2924

1415

Which Finance PhD Candidates will accept an Assistant Professor position at a top 30 Finance Department by 2026?

Nov 15, 11:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21028

OptionProbability

Tasaneeya Viratyosin (Wharton)

Chi (Clara) Xu (Wharton)

Guanyu Zhou (Wharton)

Ching-Tse Chen (Chicago)

Bianca He (Chicago)

Jessica Li (Chicago)

Meichen Qian (Chicago)

Filippo Cavaleri (Chicago)

Joanna Harris Murphy (Chicago)

Patrick Adams (MIT)

Christian Kontz (Stanford)

Pauline Liang (Stanford)

Oliver Xie (Stanford)

Edoardo Marchesi (Chicago)

26

25

25

25

25

25

25

25

25

25

25

25

25

24

Next conclave year

May 19, 12:04 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

5547

OptionProbability

Before 2047

Before 2037

After 2047

Before 2027

93

72

28

3

Where will I pay state taxes in 2026?

Feb 28, 7:04 AMJan 2, 11:59 PM

2262

OptionProbability

California

Other

Arizona

Nevada

New York

Pennsylvania

Texas

Washington

47

17

6

6

6

6

6

6

On June 30, will Mamdani have a positive net favorability among NYC residents per the latest Siena College poll?

Jan 12, 12:42 AMJul 2, 11:59 PM

64.75%chance

3120

OptionVotes

NO

YES

136

74

If AI were the internet, what year would we be in with regards to progress and maturity

Feb 16, 11:53 PM

270

How should I plan what college to attend? (Current high schooler, 100M+ bounty)

Jan 4, 6:53 AM

00

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