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Prediction markets for New College

The Trump “J6” DC Election Interference Indictment (linked)

Sep 4, 3:06 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

97975

OptionProbability

Trump isn’t convicted of any of these charges

Conviction(s) in exactly 1 of the 4 charges.

Conviction(s) in exactly 2 of the 4 charges.

Conviction(s) in exactly 3 of the 4 charges.

Conviction(s) in all 4 of the charges.

98

1

1

1

1

Which Finance PhD Candidates will accept an Assistant Professor position at a top 30 Finance Department by 2026?

Nov 15, 11:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47208

OptionProbability

Chi (Clara) Xu (Wharton)

Jessica Li (Chicago)

Joanna Harris Murphy (Chicago)

Patrick Adams (MIT)

Oliver Xie (Stanford)

Meichen Qian (Chicago)

Guanyu Zhou (Wharton)

Tasaneeya Viratyosin (Wharton)

Ching-Tse Chen (Chicago)

Bianca He (Chicago)

Edoardo Marchesi (Chicago)

Filippo Cavaleri (Chicago)

Christian Kontz (Stanford)

Pauline Liang (Stanford)

97

97

97

97

97

20

9

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

Where will I live in October 2026?

Apr 24, 6:30 PMOct 1, 12:00 AM

153403

OptionProbability

Menlo Park, CA

Other

Berkeley, CA

Stanford, CA

San Francisco, CA

Oakland, CA

San Jose, CA

Warren's Gore, VT

70

8

6

6

5

3

2

0

Will Trump attack Greenland in 2026?

Jan 7, 1:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2%chance

382938

OptionVotes

YES

NO

700

14

Will there be an "EA university" or similar institution by 31 December 2027?

Aug 23, 4:28 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

14.43%chance

522883

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2109

648

Will the 2028 U.S. presidential election end with no candidate breaking the 270-vote barrier?

Nov 13, 2:32 AMNov 20, 6:59 AM

15.23%chance

91581

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2359

424

Unemployment rate for new college grads increases in 2026?

Feb 17, 10:27 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

69.3%chance

291497

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2903

1424

Next conclave year

May 19, 12:04 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

5547

OptionProbability

Before 2047

Before 2037

After 2047

Before 2027

93

72

28

3

Where will I pay state taxes in 2026?

Feb 28, 7:04 AMJan 2, 11:59 PM

2262

OptionProbability

California

Other

Arizona

Nevada

New York

Pennsylvania

Texas

Washington

47

17

6

6

6

6

6

6

Will Hampshire College be open in 2028?

May 11, 5:03 PMSep 20, 10:59 PM

8.81%chance

6225

OptionVotes

YES

NO

322

31

If AI were the internet, what year would we be in with regards to progress and maturity

Feb 16, 11:53 PM

280

How should I plan what college to attend? (Current high schooler, 100M+ bounty)

Jan 4, 6:53 AM

00

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