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Prediction markets for New Era

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

9.91%chance

811504802

OptionVotes

YES

NO

58014

10529

2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.

Mar 11, 12:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

71.93%chance

163414

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1009

979

7. Sam Altman will step aside as CEO of OpenAI.

Dec 28, 11:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.07%chance

193036

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3171

316

Kendi/DiAngelo school of DEI widely repudiated as racist OR paranoid in USA before 2040.

Jul 13, 1:16 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

76.19%chance

191852

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1010

851

Which of Nate Silver’s four scenarios for the next era of American politics will come true?

Jan 23, 7:07 AMJan 21, 4:59 AM

251303

OptionProbability

#4 – “Off the Charts”

#3 – “Stalemate”

#1 – “Conservative Golden Age”

#2 – “The New Liberal Era is Still Alive, Baby!”

None of them

28

25

19

15

13

When will the New World Screwworm be eradicated in South America?

Oct 12, 3:05 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

9844

OptionProbability

2050 or later

2032-2034

2035-2037

2038-2040

2026-2028

2029-2031

2041-2043

2044-2046

2047-2049

2023-2025

18

12

11

11

10

10

9

9

9

1

Will New World screwworm (maggots that eat animals alive) be effectively eradicated from the wild by 2030?

Jan 10, 10:14 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

10.98%chance

23636

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1366

928

Will Nestlé publicly apologize for its role in past human rights abuses by 2030?

Aug 7, 2:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.74%chance

8545

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1401

714

Will the USA make a territorial claim in Antarctica, before 2030?

Sep 11, 6:41 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

19.94%chance

13488

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1305

898

Will Apple+'s Foundation series follow through to the end of Asimov's novel series?

Sep 7, 6:36 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

30%chance

16382

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1061

964

Will New Zealand eradicate mustelids, rats, and possums by 2050?

Mar 30, 8:30 PMDec 31, 10:59 AM

19.26%chance

8325

OptionVotes

YES

NO

248

88

Will Russia make a territorial claim in Antarctica, before 2030?

Sep 11, 6:18 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

22.81%chance

14212

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1103

952

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