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Prediction markets for New Era

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

5.21%chance

858583544

OptionVotes

YES

NO

89425

8110

CATL receives license renewal for Yichun Lithium mine by end of Dec 2026?

Jun 9, 2:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

84.73%chance

25163138

OptionVotes

NO

YES

23558

4245

2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.

Mar 11, 12:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

75.68%chance

173564

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1159

926

Which of Nate Silver’s four scenarios for the next era of American politics will come true?

Jan 23, 7:07 AMJan 21, 4:59 AM

261353

OptionProbability

#3 – “Stalemate”

#4 – “Off the Charts”

#1 – “Conservative Golden Age”

#2 – “The New Liberal Era is Still Alive, Baby!”

None of them

34

25

17

13

11

When will the New World Screwworm be eradicated in South America?

Oct 12, 3:05 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

10848

OptionProbability

2050 or later

2038-2040

2032-2034

2035-2037

2041-2043

2026-2028

2029-2031

2044-2046

2047-2049

2023-2025

18

13

12

12

10

9

9

8

8

1

Will Nestlé publicly apologize for its role in past human rights abuses by 2030?

Aug 7, 2:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.59%chance

12834

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1661

602

Will New World screwworm (maggots that eat animals alive) be effectively eradicated from the wild by 2030?

Jan 10, 10:14 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

10.25%chance

23728

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1458

917

Will the USA make a territorial claim in Antarctica, before 2030?

Sep 11, 6:41 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

18.39%chance

14588

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1405

874

Will Apple+'s Foundation series follow through to the end of Asimov's novel series?

Sep 7, 6:36 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

30%chance

16382

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1061

964

Will New Zealand eradicate mustelids, rats, and possums by 2050?

Mar 30, 8:30 PMDec 31, 10:59 AM

19.26%chance

8325

OptionVotes

YES

NO

248

88

Will Russia make a territorial claim in Antarctica, before 2030?

Sep 11, 6:18 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

22.81%chance

14212

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1103

952

Two Bit DaVinci achieves 1 Mill followers by Mar. 1, 2027. His current video is "A New Era of Computer Chips Has Begun".

Jun 2, 12:49 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

40.19%chance

122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

122

82

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