New Founding News

Will AIs be widely recognized as having developed a new, innovative, foundational mathematical theory before 2030?

Jul 24, 7:30 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

31.06%chance

10825367

OptionVotes

YES

1791

1279

Will GiveWell fund Mass distribution of azithromycin to reduce child mortality by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 4:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.08%chance

188507

OptionVotes

YES

6378

3288

10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.44%chance

213540

OptionVotes

YES

1033

971

Will AIs be widely recognized as having developed a new, innovative, foundational mathematical theory before 2035?

Jul 24, 7:37 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

32.09%chance

292954

OptionVotes

YES

1452

685

What are the probabilities of these AI outcomes (X-risk, dystopias, utopias, in-between outcomes, status quo outcomes)?

Mar 25, 10:00 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

612904

OptionProbability

A. Death by paperclips, eternal torment of all humans by AI, or similar unalignment catastrophe.

F. AI wipes out most jobs as in D. People not forced into mind-uploads or experience machines. General perception that AI has made life more meaningful/fulfilling&improved the human experience on dimensions other than hedonium maximization.

I. AI soon hits fundamental scaling laws and we go into another AI winter.

B. Governments and/or other powerful entities use AI as a tool of repression, enabling global techno-totalitarianism along the model of China during Zero Covid or worse.

G. AI development continues but doesn't change things too much, somehow. Most jobs, even low-level white collar jobs, don't get impacted too hard, as new work is found to replace newly automated work. Labor force participation remains high.

C. AI doesn't actively want to hurt us, but (possibly aided by transhumanists) they become obsessed with utility maximization and force us all into mind-uploads and/or experience machines to free up resources for more computronium.

D. AI wipes out most white-collar jobs within a decade and most blue-collar jobs within a generation; powerful humans and/or AIs at least seriously consider disposing of the "useless eaters" en masse, us being powerless to resist.

E. AI wipes out most jobs as in D. No disposing of the human masses, but general perception that AI has made life less meaningful/fulfilling & significantly worsened the human experience on dimensions other than hedonium maximization.

H. Humanity coordinates to prevent the development of significantly more powerful AIs.

Will Stoke Space fly to space by 2027?

Dec 16, 6:04 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.45%chance

111879

OptionVotes

YES

1294

775

Will evidence of an extraterrestrial civilization be discovered by the year 2100?

Jul 3, 7:01 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

33.79%chance

111151

OptionVotes

YES

1400

714

Andrej Karpathy's Eureka Labs valued at >$1B by end of 2027?

Oct 18, 9:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.59%chance

13874

OptionVotes

YES

1185

844

Will a "Sharp Left Turn" occur (as described by the Alignment Forum, Nate Soares, and Victoria Krakovna et. al.)?

Apr 12, 8:49 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.04%chance

19700

OptionVotes

YES

1003

994

Will a counterexample to the Collatz conjecture be found before midnight new year 2028?

Mar 17, 4:29 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM

3.14%chance

7668

OptionVotes

YES

626

Will humans remain better at clever turns of phrase and great illustrations, as Wired claims?

Nov 2, 3:43 PMNov 3, 2:37 PM

41.7%chance

6320

OptionVotes

YES

1182

846

Will the definitive function/purpose of the Roman Dodecahedron be identified before March 6th, 2035?

Mar 6, 5:20 PMMar 7, 6:59 AM

45.8%chance

5122

OptionVotes

YES

1093

924

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Prediction markets for New Founding

Will AIs be widely recognized as having developed a new, innovative, foundational mathematical theory before 2030?

Will GiveWell fund Mass distribution of azithromycin to reduce child mortality by 1st January 2027?

10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]

Will AIs be widely recognized as having developed a new, innovative, foundational mathematical theory before 2035?

What are the probabilities of these AI outcomes (X-risk, dystopias, utopias, in-between outcomes, status quo outcomes)?

Will Stoke Space fly to space by 2027?

Will evidence of an extraterrestrial civilization be discovered by the year 2100?

Andrej Karpathy's Eureka Labs valued at >$1B by end of 2027?

Will a "Sharp Left Turn" occur (as described by the Alignment Forum, Nate Soares, and Victoria Krakovna et. al.)?

Will a counterexample to the Collatz conjecture be found before midnight new year 2028?

Will humans remain better at clever turns of phrase and great illustrations, as Wired claims?

Will the definitive function/purpose of the Roman Dodecahedron be identified before March 6th, 2035?

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