OptionProbability
He leaves Argentina during his first term
He travels to Chile during his first term
He travels to Brazil during his first term
He is photographed with Elon Musk
A photo of him with Trump is released
A photo of Milei with Biden is released
His sister Karina holds an official public governmental position
Will he publicly shake hands with Lula?
Will Elon Musk post Milei's picture, real or meme form, as long as he's clearly identifiable?
Heritage.org economic freedom score will be at or above the world average [Argentina 51.0, world 59.3 in 2023]
Argentina will have improved its "corruption perceptions index" ranking [96th]; their score in 2023 was 38, higher score is better
He comes to the US and meets the US president in the white house and a picture is released
His salary as president is legislatively raised or lowered
Heritage.org economic freedom score will be 60 or above [51 in 2023]
Argentina will be at 63rd or better place in the good country index [63rd in 2023]
Argentina will be at or better than its 2023 US news "best country" rating of 39
Will Pope Francis or a new Pope visit?
Annualized inflation rate relative to 2023 will be <30%
According to amnesty international, the poverty rate will go down [36.5% in 2022]
There are serious news reports that he is discussing working with Elon Musk on a major project such as a new city, or a Tesla factory, or a rocket base, etc.
He wins reelection to a 2nd term
A sitting US President visits Argentina and is photographed with him
The Economist data will list GDP person as above 16k USD [13700 in 2023]
The Economist data will list GDP person as above 16000 USD [13700 in 2023]
LLM Q2: Will OpenAI's top public LLM at end of term, when asked from the POV of various international media outlets, what average rating will they give him?
Argentina will have improved its "Sustainable Development Report" of 51st place
Elon says the phrase or something similar, as a slogan or statement, or wears something with "VVLC", "Vive la libertad carajo" in english or spanish
He travels to Bolivia
LLM Q1: Will OpenAI's top public LLM at end of his term rate his performance at >50%?
Argentina's population increases by more than 1%/year annualized til end of first term [historically, there has been approx 0.6% annual increase in the last 4 years]
US Military gains any kind of base for at least 10 active duty military personnel within Argentina
Argentina will finish in the top 4 in the 2026 world cup
Victoria Villarruel leaves government and does not hold the office of vice president before end of term
He leads Argentina to significantly begin cooperation with SpaceX
Milei is revealed to not really be a Vegan (or just stops being Vegan)
He sells land to a non-argentinian individual or corporation with some promises of a level of sovereignty above what is normal
He marries during his first term
Argentina accepts some kind of Cryptocurrency for payment of taxes or gov't fees
He goes incommunicado for at least a week
Will the organ trade be legalized? (significantly legalized compared to the rest of S.America suffices)
Will he ever be TIME person of the year?
He officially converts to Judaism
He significantly changes his hairstyle during his first term
He is impeached or removed in a process which is retroactively considered legal for at least a week
Argentina will finish in the top 2 in the 2026 world cup
He successfully mediates the border dispute with Chile and completely solves it
Argentina's population ever decreases year over year during the first term
He leaves office early from his first term, i.e. not completing the usual 4 years
There is an assassination attempt resulting in shots fired
He goes out of office for physical health-related reasons [independent health-related only; assassination, disappearance, quitting, or psychological reasons don't count]
The official borders of Argentina change during his term of office
He successfully dollarizes Argentina [i.e. most people use dollars most of the time]
Will at any time, the US have a travel advisory against Argentina at level 3 or 4 or higher? (level 1 now)
Argentina will win the 2026 world cup
He publicly resigns [whether real or coerced]
The Argentine peso will have been officially deprecated and not in legal use
Argentina will declare war
He is jailed, emprisoned, or held in state control during what was his original planned term of office
He travels to Russia during his first term
Will he abolish the central bank of Argentina?
He changes the law such that he retains power longer than the usual 4 years without a new election
He is in a serious car or motorcycle crash
There is a military action in the Falklands/Malvinas which results in the death of at least 2 soldiers from any side
He has a child during his first term
He is excommunicated by the catholic church
He gets banned from Twitter [even momentarily]
He is in a plane (or helicopter) crash
He passes away during his first term before completion
Argentina effectively controls the Falklands/Malvinas or part of them, for at least a week
Will Argentina join BRICS?
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
91
91
85
84
83
81
78
76
71
70
67
60
56
55
55
50
48
47
46
45
44
41
40
40
40
38
36
31
31
29
28
27
26
26
25
25
23
21
20
20
17
15
13
13
12
11
8
8
7
7
7
6
6
5
4
4
4
3
3
3
2
OptionProbability
Officials Say
Trump Wins
Court Orders
Found dead
Texas Fire
Civil war
Olympic Gold
Climate Change
Bird Flu
Supreme Court
Trade War
Former President
Southern Border
Talks Between
Officials Declare
On record
First Ever
Talks Begin
Trump Ordered
New report
Earthquake Kills
Ceasefire Agreement
Lawmakers Move
Take Home
Drone Strike
Inflation down
In Setback
Assassination Attempt
declares war
Artificial Intelligence
Officials Deny
Tension Builds
Republicans Lose
National Emergency
nuclear weapon
Death Toll
Most Ever
Trump guilty
at Odds
Third attempt
Second Term
Generation Alpha
European Union
Landmark Decision
Dalai Lama
Strikes continue
Feared dead following
Officials Insist
court allows
Border Crisis
A.I. Legislation
Impeachment Inquiry
Demands Justice
Takes Gold
With Biden
Tipping Point
Olympic Debut
Summer Olympic Games
Hoping To
Sudden Death
In Historic Decision
Musk donates
Cancer cure
Fake news
Keir Starmer
Vows to
AI Czar
threat to democracy
General Condemns
Officials Worry
Chemical weapon
Highest Ever
Swift Becomes
Joins NATO
Alleged genocide
Nuclear war
Biden Announces
Homelessness ban
market crashes
nuclear bomb
Kremlin Says
Haley announces
Tempers Flare
trump’s assassin
Double Knockout
Supreme Court, 9-0
Leaves NATO
Carter Dead
Ghost Trees
Trump Convicted
69 billion
Harris Wins
Revolutionary Song
Artificial General Intelligence
"French Fries"
Occult hand
Effective Altruism
Biden Wins
TikToker Found
Trump Dead
Apocalypse imminent
Florida Man
Holy hell
Putin Dead
Biden Dead
owo what's this
I Like Ike
Astral Codex Ten
Manifold Markets
Williamson Wins
Africa Toto
General Condoms
Dewey Defeats Truman
En passant forced
Titanic 2 Sinks
skibidi toilet
never gonna give you up
Rationalussy Cult
"Vriska did nothing wrong"
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
96
84
83
83
82
82
80
79
79
78
77
77
77
76
76
76
75
74
73
72
72
71
71
70
70
69
69
69
69
66
65
65
64
64
64
62
62
62
61
57
57
55
55
52
50
50
50
49
48
46
46
45
45
45
45
45
44
44
44
42
40
37
37
36
35
32
32
31
29
28
27
27
27
23
22
19
18
18
17
16
16
14
14
12
12
11
10
10
10
10
8
8
7
7
7
6
5
4
3
3
3
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
OptionProbability
Guilty [after June 5, 2024]
Not Guilty
Trump impeached
China invades Taiwan
China attacks Taiwan
Market Meltdown
Government shuts down
Record Broken for Hottest Day on Earth
America Under Attack
Joe Biden Dead at 83
U.S. Attacked
Xi dead
Russia and Ukraine [or Ukraine and Russia] sign a peace deal
Landmark Decision
War declared
Fed announces
Trump
Gaza
Putin to step down
Woman Walks on the Moon
Election overturned
Griswold Overturned
Swing States
Ceasefire established in Gaza
Putin killed
On all counts
Trump again
Trump wins
Trump convicted
Four more years
Haley to suspend campaign
Extraterrestrials Are Real
Artificial Intelligence
Putin is dead
Madam President
Jimmy Carter dies
Biden wins
Biden resigns
Biden wins again
Biden's Age is Becoming the Central Issue of the Campaign
Biden Re-elected
Sentenced to
Path to
23
22
13
13
12
12
10
10
10
10
8
7
7
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
5
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
OptionVotes
YES
NO
148
68