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Prediction markets for New Labour

Will a "lifetime smoking ban" become law in the UK before the next General Election after July 2024?

May 31, 1:56 PMMay 7, 10:59 PM

71.63%chance

5811712

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1589

629

After the 2026 New Zealand general election, which parties will form a government?

Aug 22, 12:03 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

143878

OptionProbability

ACT

National

NZ First

Labour

Greens

Te Pāti Māori

Opportunities (TOP)

NewZeal

Legalise Cannabis

New Conservative

73

72

50

32

26

17

8

2

2

2

UK Labour builds how many homes by July 4, 2029?

May 17, 11:09 PMJul 3, 11:59 PM

41917

Who will be the next Labour prime minister of New Zealand?

Oct 14, 6:59 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

171576

OptionProbability

Chris Hipkins

Other

Kieran McAnulty

David Parker

Megan Woods

Carmel Sepuloni

Arena Williams

Barbara Edmonds

Willie Jackson

Peeni Henare

Cushla Tangaere-Manuel

Grant Robertson

Ayesha Verrall

Damien O'Connor

Adrian Rurawhe

Ginny Anderson

Christ Hipkins

36

31

11

3

3

2

2

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

0

[Ṁ200 subsidy] Will the BBC licence fee be axed by the end of 2028?

Aug 3, 11:25 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

27.34%chance

221255

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1157

913

Will the UK build >1.5m new homes by the end of Q2 2029

May 8, 11:40 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

33.8%chance

171013

OptionVotes

YES

NO

744

509

Will major AI research institutions adopt AI tax policy as a research priority by the end of 2025?

Jul 11, 6:00 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

54.7%chance

2400

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2198

1820

Will major AI research institutions adopt AI tax policy as a research priority by the end of 2027?

Jun 30, 9:06 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

4240

OptionProbability

Yes

No

Other

54

23

23

Will New Zealand's National-led Coalition Government Be Limited to a Single Term?

Feb 25, 3:54 AMNov 30, 10:59 AM

54.07%chance

6227

OptionVotes

YES

NO

200

199

Will all Five Eyes countries be governed by red parties before the end of Trump’s second term?

Apr 28, 10:24 PMJan 20, 5:00 PM

43.77%chance

13171

OptionVotes

YES

NO

113

88

AI creates more jobs than it eliminates worldwide by 2030?

Jun 26, 9:43 AMDec 31, 9:41 AM

30%chance

9162

OptionVotes

YES

NO

153

65

Will the arrested labour councillor, Ricky Jones, be sentenced for longer than a year?

Aug 8, 6:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.36%chance

4119

OptionVotes

YES

NO

148

68

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