New Line News

5. Multiple serious efforts to put AI data centers in space will take shape.

Dec 27, 8:16 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

70.31%chance

11853527

OptionVotes

YES

1539

650

Will AI be life-changing for muggles by the end of 2029?

Oct 10, 8:46 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

79%chance

11128446

OptionVotes

YES

1940

516

Will net demand for graphic designers fall by 50% or more by 2025?

Aug 10, 1:31 AMSep 1, 3:59 AM

3.44%chance

12227376

OptionVotes

YES

10020

1563

Will the UK HS2 rail line between London and Birmingham be operational before 2031?

Feb 16, 9:15 AMJan 1, 12:00 AM

5.26%chance

2411233

OptionVotes

YES

11928

1118

If the Republican candidate loses the U.S. Presidential election in 2028, will they say it was rigged/stolen?

Nov 8, 3:05 AMJan 21, 4:59 AM

69.53%chance

146264

OptionVotes

YES

1511

662

What policies will Zohran Mamdani implement?

Jun 25, 2:29 AMJan 26, 3:27 AM

785703

OptionProbability

Any policies that in line of requirement for all children in New York to learn Arabic numerals at an early age

Change how caseworkers, inspectors, teachers, social workers handle things within existing law

A rent freeze in rent-stabilized housing

Raise corporate tax

Creating the Department of Community Safety

Free city buses

Commit 0.5% of NYC's budget to libraries

Raise income tax

At least two grocery stores operated by the city government

Free childcare in NYC

Appoint a Mom-and-Pop Czar

Pass a law for a $30 minimum wage by 2030

Before 2028, will AI systems outperform mathematicians at suggesting reasonable explanations for new OEIS sequences?

Jul 20, 9:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

39.81%chance

114493

OptionVotes

YES

10081

9577

Will Warren Buffet family's yet-to-be-named ~$127B charitable trust donate to any Effective Altruist orgs prior to 2030?

Jul 2, 9:19 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

34.79%chance

141630

OptionVotes

YES

1809

1260

Will I get my money back from the cruise casino?

Feb 7, 7:54 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

59.72%chance

6380

OptionVotes

YES

1459

987

Which of the following will best represent my assessment of the end outcome of the Trump tariffs

May 6, 3:18 PMJan 1, 4:09 PM

5288

OptionProbability

New trade deals with higher tariffs on Non-China countries than the 2024 status quo

A global tariff remains in effect close to 10% (5-15%) with a significantly higher tariff on China (40%+)

Trump announces new "trade deals" that are mostly in line with previous ones (A la USMCA reworking of NAFTA)

Trump unilaterally backs down from high tariffs and we mostly return to 2024 status quo

New trade deals see generally lower taxes on Non-China countries than the 2024 status quo

Other

New president joins a picket line in 2025

Sep 27, 1:35 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

8.04%chance

5280

OptionVotes

YES

410

Will the World Meteorological Organization Decertify the 1913 Death Valley 134F Temperature Record During the 2020s?

Aug 22, 12:50 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

34.9%chance

8149

OptionVotes

YES

1192

1092

New Line News

Prediction markets for New Line

Prediction markets for New Line

Prediction markets for New Line

5. Multiple serious efforts to put AI data centers in space will take shape.

Will AI be life-changing for muggles by the end of 2029?

Will net demand for graphic designers fall by 50% or more by 2025?

Will the UK HS2 rail line between London and Birmingham be operational before 2031?

If the Republican candidate loses the U.S. Presidential election in 2028, will they say it was rigged/stolen?

What policies will Zohran Mamdani implement?

Before 2028, will AI systems outperform mathematicians at suggesting reasonable explanations for new OEIS sequences?

Will Warren Buffet family's yet-to-be-named ~$127B charitable trust donate to any Effective Altruist orgs prior to 2030?

Will I get my money back from the cruise casino?

Which of the following will best represent my assessment of the end outcome of the Trump tariffs

New president joins a picket line in 2025

Will the World Meteorological Organization Decertify the 1913 Death Valley 134F Temperature Record During the 2020s?

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