New Line News

Will AI be life-changing for muggles by the end of 2029?

Oct 10, 8:46 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

76.69%chance

11228631

OptionVotes

YES

1816

552

Will a top-10 LMArena model have weight-based online learning by 2028?

Dec 4, 6:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57.39%chance

1218303

OptionVotes

YES

2281

1762

Will GPT-5 be able to solve A::B system puzzles consistently

Apr 5, 2:04 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

14.4%chance

5811987

OptionVotes

YES

2262

219

Will the UK HS2 rail line between London and Birmingham be operational before 2031?

Feb 16, 9:15 AMJan 1, 12:00 AM

5.22%chance

2411283

OptionVotes

YES

11978

1115

If the Republican candidate loses the U.S. Presidential election in 2028, will they say it was rigged/stolen?

Nov 8, 3:05 AMJan 21, 4:59 AM

69.53%chance

146264

OptionVotes

YES

1511

662

What policies will Zohran Mamdani implement?

Jun 25, 2:29 AMJan 26, 3:27 AM

786221

OptionProbability

Any policies that in line of requirement for all children in New York to learn Arabic numerals at an early age

Change how caseworkers, inspectors, teachers, social workers handle things within existing law

A rent freeze in rent-stabilized housing

Creating the Department of Community Safety

Free childcare in NYC

Raise corporate tax

Commit 0.5% of NYC's budget to libraries

Raise income tax

At least two grocery stores operated by the city government

Appoint a Mom-and-Pop Czar

Free city buses

Pass a law for a $30 minimum wage by 2030

Before 2028, will AI systems outperform mathematicians at suggesting reasonable explanations for new OEIS sequences?

Jul 20, 9:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

35.83%chance

125543

OptionVotes

YES

10627

9444

Will China Hongqiao Group's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 6.4 million tonnes?

May 4, 5:53 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

46.5%chance

53075

OptionVotes

YES

10725

9324

Will Warren Buffet family's yet-to-be-named ~$127B charitable trust donate to any Effective Altruist orgs prior to 2030?

Jul 2, 9:19 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

34.79%chance

141630

OptionVotes

YES

1809

1260

Will Apple release a new product line before 2027? [Polymarket]

Feb 23, 11:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38%chance

15835

OptionVotes

YES

143

Will I get my money back from the cruise casino?

Feb 7, 7:54 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

57.08%chance

12828

OptionVotes

YES

1384

1044

Will the World Meteorological Organization Decertify the 1913 Death Valley 134F Temperature Record During the 2020s?

Aug 22, 12:50 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

34.84%chance

9151

OptionVotes

YES

1206

1102

New Line News

Prediction markets for New Line

Prediction markets for New Line

Prediction markets for New Line

Will AI be life-changing for muggles by the end of 2029?

Will a top-10 LMArena model have weight-based online learning by 2028?

Will GPT-5 be able to solve A::B system puzzles consistently

Will the UK HS2 rail line between London and Birmingham be operational before 2031?

If the Republican candidate loses the U.S. Presidential election in 2028, will they say it was rigged/stolen?

What policies will Zohran Mamdani implement?

Before 2028, will AI systems outperform mathematicians at suggesting reasonable explanations for new OEIS sequences?

Will China Hongqiao Group's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 6.4 million tonnes?

Will Warren Buffet family's yet-to-be-named ~$127B charitable trust donate to any Effective Altruist orgs prior to 2030?

Will Apple release a new product line before 2027? [Polymarket]

Will I get my money back from the cruise casino?

Will the World Meteorological Organization Decertify the 1913 Death Valley 134F Temperature Record During the 2020s?

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