New Line News

Will AI be life-changing for muggles by the end of 2029?

Oct 10, 8:46 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

86.88%chance

11430322

OptionVotes

YES

2576

389

Will a top-10 LMArena model have weight-based online learning by 2028?

Dec 4, 6:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57.9%chance

1418449

OptionVotes

YES

2306

1744

Will the UK HS2 rail line between London and Birmingham be operational before 2031?

Feb 16, 9:15 AMJan 1, 12:00 AM

5.22%chance

2511293

OptionVotes

YES

11988

1114

Will China Hongqiao Group's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 6.4 million tonnes?

May 4, 5:53 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

73.83%chance

710697

OptionVotes

YES

16798

5953

Before 2028, will AI systems outperform mathematicians at suggesting reasonable explanations for new OEIS sequences?

Jul 20, 9:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

54.29%chance

149293

OptionVotes

YES

12637

6684

If the Republican candidate loses the U.S. Presidential election in 2028, will they say it was rigged/stolen?

Nov 8, 3:05 AMJan 21, 4:59 AM

69.53%chance

146264

OptionVotes

YES

1511

662

What policies will Zohran Mamdani implement?

Jun 25, 2:29 AMJan 26, 3:27 AM

806259

OptionProbability

Any policies that in line of requirement for all children in New York to learn Arabic numerals at an early age

Change how caseworkers, inspectors, teachers, social workers handle things within existing law

A rent freeze in rent-stabilized housing

Creating the Department of Community Safety

Free childcare in NYC

Raise corporate tax

Commit 0.5% of NYC's budget to libraries

Raise income tax

At least two grocery stores operated by the city government

Appoint a Mom-and-Pop Czar

Free city buses

Pass a law for a $30 minimum wage by 2030

Will Warren Buffet family's yet-to-be-named ~$127B charitable trust donate to any Effective Altruist orgs prior to 2030?

Jul 2, 9:19 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

34.79%chance

141630

OptionVotes

YES

1809

1260

Will Apple release a new product line before 2027? [Polymarket]

Feb 23, 11:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20%chance

181215

OptionVotes

YES

205

Will I get my money back from the cruise casino?

Feb 7, 7:54 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

46.38%chance

131078

OptionVotes

YES

1294

1116

Will OpenAI release a new line of models by the end of the year?

Aug 6, 12:37 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

99%chance

5895

OptionVotes

YES

995

Will Anthropic release a new line of models by the end of the year?

Aug 5, 11:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.25%chance

31840

OptionVotes

YES

237

New Line News

Prediction markets for New Line

Prediction markets for New Line

Prediction markets for New Line

Will AI be life-changing for muggles by the end of 2029?

Will a top-10 LMArena model have weight-based online learning by 2028?

Will the UK HS2 rail line between London and Birmingham be operational before 2031?

Will China Hongqiao Group's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 6.4 million tonnes?

Before 2028, will AI systems outperform mathematicians at suggesting reasonable explanations for new OEIS sequences?

If the Republican candidate loses the U.S. Presidential election in 2028, will they say it was rigged/stolen?

What policies will Zohran Mamdani implement?

Will Warren Buffet family's yet-to-be-named ~$127B charitable trust donate to any Effective Altruist orgs prior to 2030?

Will Apple release a new product line before 2027? [Polymarket]

Will I get my money back from the cruise casino?

Will OpenAI release a new line of models by the end of the year?

Will Anthropic release a new line of models by the end of the year?

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