New Line News

Will AI be life-changing for muggles by the end of 2029?

Oct 10, 8:46 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

77.58%chance

11228585

OptionVotes

YES

1862

538

Will net demand for graphic designers fall by 50% or more by 2025?

Aug 10, 1:31 AMSep 1, 3:59 AM

3.66%chance

12828289

OptionVotes

YES

9508

1582

Will a top-10 LMArena model have weight-based online learning by 2028?

Dec 4, 6:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57.39%chance

1218303

OptionVotes

YES

2281

1762

Will GPT-5 be able to solve A::B system puzzles consistently

Apr 5, 2:04 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

14.4%chance

5811987

OptionVotes

YES

2262

219

Will the UK HS2 rail line between London and Birmingham be operational before 2031?

Feb 16, 9:15 AMJan 1, 12:00 AM

5.26%chance

2411233

OptionVotes

YES

11928

1118

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2026?

Dec 14, 5:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.33%chance

518946

OptionVotes

YES

1269

789

If the Republican candidate loses the U.S. Presidential election in 2028, will they say it was rigged/stolen?

Nov 8, 3:05 AMJan 21, 4:59 AM

69.53%chance

146264

OptionVotes

YES

1511

662

What policies will Zohran Mamdani implement?

Jun 25, 2:29 AMJan 26, 3:27 AM

786072

OptionProbability

Any policies that in line of requirement for all children in New York to learn Arabic numerals at an early age

Change how caseworkers, inspectors, teachers, social workers handle things within existing law

A rent freeze in rent-stabilized housing

Raise corporate tax

Creating the Department of Community Safety

Commit 0.5% of NYC's budget to libraries

Free city buses

Free childcare in NYC

Raise income tax

At least two grocery stores operated by the city government

Appoint a Mom-and-Pop Czar

Pass a law for a $30 minimum wage by 2030

Before 2028, will AI systems outperform mathematicians at suggesting reasonable explanations for new OEIS sequences?

Jul 20, 9:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

36%chance

125493

OptionVotes

YES

10577

9472

Will Warren Buffet family's yet-to-be-named ~$127B charitable trust donate to any Effective Altruist orgs prior to 2030?

Jul 2, 9:19 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

34.79%chance

141630

OptionVotes

YES

1809

1260

Will I get my money back from the cruise casino?

Feb 7, 7:54 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

53.8%chance

8593

OptionVotes

YES

1295

1115

Will the World Meteorological Organization Decertify the 1913 Death Valley 134F Temperature Record During the 2020s?

Aug 22, 12:50 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

34.84%chance

9151

OptionVotes

YES

1206

1102

New Line News

Prediction markets for New Line

Prediction markets for New Line

Prediction markets for New Line

Will AI be life-changing for muggles by the end of 2029?

Will net demand for graphic designers fall by 50% or more by 2025?

Will a top-10 LMArena model have weight-based online learning by 2028?

Will GPT-5 be able to solve A::B system puzzles consistently

Will the UK HS2 rail line between London and Birmingham be operational before 2031?

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2026?

If the Republican candidate loses the U.S. Presidential election in 2028, will they say it was rigged/stolen?

What policies will Zohran Mamdani implement?

Before 2028, will AI systems outperform mathematicians at suggesting reasonable explanations for new OEIS sequences?

Will Warren Buffet family's yet-to-be-named ~$127B charitable trust donate to any Effective Altruist orgs prior to 2030?

Will I get my money back from the cruise casino?

Will the World Meteorological Organization Decertify the 1913 Death Valley 134F Temperature Record During the 2020s?

Latest stories