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Prediction markets for New Look
How many H5N1 human cases will there be in the USA by end of 2025, according to CDC?
Jan 2, 3:30 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM
71100841
OptionProbability
79
16
1
1
1
1
1
(10k subsidy) 1 year after Putin, who will be the apparent leader of Russia?
Oct 24, 3:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
6461670
OptionProbability
44
13
10
7
7
5
4
2
2
2
2
1
1
Will the state-of-the-art AI model use latent space to reason by 2026?
Dec 14, 1:06 AMJan 2, 1:00 AM
15.31%chance
2629485
OptionVotes
23517
4252
Will I get any new cavities after applying the Lantern Bioworks strain to my teeth by 2026?
Sep 27, 2:00 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM
24.12%chance
10521379
OptionVotes
2281
1702
OptionProbability
53
48
43
41
34
18
Before 2050, will it become safe and easy to change one's apparent sex at will?
Nov 15, 8:54 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM
40%chance
827039
OptionVotes
1048
902
Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?
Jun 12, 3:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
8.29%chance
216832
OptionVotes
3327
301
If the Republican candidate loses the U.S. Presidential election in 2028, will they say it was rigged/stolen?
Nov 8, 3:05 AMJan 21, 4:59 AM
68.23%chance
146243
OptionVotes
1465
682
Will Sam Altman become more cautious about AGI/ASI development after having a child?
Nov 9, 2:29 PMJul 31, 9:59 PM
49.22%chance
243307
OptionVotes
10581
9400
Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?
Nov 26, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
74.89%chance
311936
OptionVotes
1629
626
Who will be the next permanent host of The Daily Show? [Add Answers]
Sep 4, 5:51 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM
141289
OptionProbability
35
11
10
6
6
6
6
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
Manifold+Goodreads - mc-ul - I add new books to read, later resolve to my rating. I won't look at your positions
Dec 3, 11:44 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM
2120
OptionProbability
90
83
80
55
50
50